#88 Black Lung (20-13)

avg: 1302.74  •  sd: 55.83  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
253 Scoop** Win 13-0 648.49 Ignored Jun 17th SCINNY1
205 On Ramp Win 13-9 1058.75 Jun 17th SCINNY1
75 Flying Dutchmen Loss 11-13 1148.7 Jun 17th SCINNY1
- Impulse Win 15-7 1149.09 Jun 17th SCINNY1
117 Chimney Win 14-11 1432.91 Jun 18th SCINNY1
63 I-69 Loss 6-14 849.32 Jun 18th SCINNY1
75 Flying Dutchmen Win 12-11 1502.54 Jun 18th SCINNY1
35 baNC Loss 6-13 1044.34 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
120 El Niño Win 12-8 1532.86 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
150 Nashville Mudcats Win 13-8 1422.36 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
37 Alliance Loss 8-13 1131.22 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
35 baNC Loss 8-13 1148.18 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
61 Lost Boys Win 12-9 1811.3 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
239 8-Bit Defenders** Win 13-4 908.71 Ignored Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
84 Pittsburgh Stealers Win 12-9 1673.04 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
75 Flying Dutchmen Loss 5-13 777.54 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
63 I-69 Loss 10-13 1121.17 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
130 Diesel Loss 10-11 915.66 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
139 Hazard Win 10-6 1470.28 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
117 Chimney Win 14-8 1655.61 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
250 Rotisserie Chicken** Win 13-2 708.04 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
130 Diesel Win 15-8 1605.47 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
117 Chimney Win 13-7 1677.1 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
75 Flying Dutchmen Win 15-11 1758.7 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
55 Colonels Loss 11-14 1190.35 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
75 Flying Dutchmen Loss 13-15 1163.36 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
155 Chicago Dark Frogs Win 13-5 1493.2 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
76 Haymaker Loss 7-13 819.62 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
5 Chicago Machine** Loss 4-13 1589.71 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
63 I-69 Loss 11-15 1068.15 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
155 Chicago Dark Frogs Win 15-9 1408.68 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
117 Chimney Win 14-13 1244.57 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
135 Trident II Win 15-12 1324.17 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)