#130 Diesel (17-15)

avg: 1040.66  •  sd: 52.99  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
47 Beacon Loss 7-15 963.24 Jun 17th SCINNY1
166 Enigma Win 15-9 1355.15 Jun 17th SCINNY1
- Flying Pig Win 15-7 1122.91 Jun 17th SCINNY1
63 I-69 Loss 8-15 884.51 Jun 18th SCINNY1
117 Chimney Win 13-8 1615.73 Jun 18th SCINNY1
139 Hazard Loss 4-7 477.96 Jun 18th SCINNY1
191 DCVIII Win 13-10 1063.72 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
135 Trident II Win 13-9 1442.24 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
143 STL Moonar Win 13-6 1566.77 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
73 Knights of Ni Loss 9-13 967.28 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
98 Riverside Loss 10-13 950.44 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
63 I-69 Loss 9-13 1030.75 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
127 Nomads Win 13-9 1469.59 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
253 Scoop** Win 13-0 648.49 Ignored Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
63 I-69 Loss 6-11 902.62 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
228 Mischief Win 13-6 1066.63 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
88 Black Lung Win 11-10 1427.74 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
75 Flying Dutchmen Win 9-8 1502.54 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
84 Pittsburgh Stealers Loss 4-10 727.67 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
234 MARC Win 13-6 1002.7 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
55 Colonels Loss 8-13 1007.53 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
88 Black Lung Loss 8-15 737.93 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
228 Mischief Win 15-7 1066.63 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
75 Flying Dutchmen Loss 7-15 777.54 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
117 Chimney Win 14-13 1244.57 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
166 Enigma Win 15-8 1404.47 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
34 Trident I** Loss 2-13 1061.81 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
75 Flying Dutchmen Loss 9-13 958.97 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
117 Chimney Loss 11-12 994.57 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
117 Chimney Loss 5-15 519.57 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
228 Mischief Win 12-11 591.63 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
155 Chicago Dark Frogs Win 13-12 1018.2 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)