#158 Alibi (16-17)

avg: 887.94  •  sd: 59.16  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
79 Red Tide Loss 2-15 771.93 Jul 8th AntlerLock
230 Bartle Boys Win 12-10 669.04 Jul 8th AntlerLock
154 Odyssey Win 13-8 1390.44 Jul 8th AntlerLock
226 Buffalo Frostbite Win 15-4 1086.54 Jul 8th AntlerLock
163 Crossfire Win 10-9 984.38 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
72 Colt Loss 2-12 789.28 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
137 Expendables Loss 4-13 398.4 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
62 Shade Loss 2-13 849.64 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
72 Colt Loss 9-13 970.72 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
173 Crypt Loss 5-12 224.16 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
161 MOB Ultimate Loss 11-12 739.78 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
209 Long Island Riff Raff Win 13-2 1189.54 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
189 Dirty Laundry Win 10-9 873.17 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
226 Buffalo Frostbite Loss 8-9 361.54 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
226 Buffalo Frostbite Win 12-11 611.54 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
215 EZ Win 13-7 1105.93 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
163 Crossfire Loss 10-11 734.38 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
189 Dirty Laundry Win 12-10 986.29 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
226 Buffalo Frostbite Win 13-5 1086.54 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
163 Crossfire Win 13-8 1355.53 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
238 Mohawk Valley Wild Win 13-4 927.36 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
21 Phoenix** Loss 3-13 1259.25 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
226 Buffalo Frostbite Win 11-6 1033.24 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
189 Dirty Laundry Win 9-6 1166.73 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
200 Rochester Open Club Win 12-11 807.18 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
21 Phoenix Loss 7-15 1259.25 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
226 Buffalo Frostbite Win 11-8 852.15 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
15 GOAT** Loss 2-13 1372.27 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mens Regional Championship
24 Blueprint** Loss 4-13 1164.52 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mens Regional Championship
71 Big Wrench Loss 8-15 830.2 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mens Regional Championship
94 Magma Bears Loss 5-15 691.23 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mens Regional Championship
72 Colt Loss 10-15 935.68 Sep 24th 2023 Northeast Mens Regional Championship
71 Big Wrench Loss 5-15 795.01 Sep 24th 2023 Northeast Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)