#189 Dirty Laundry (14-16)

avg: 748.17  •  sd: 61.13  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
226 Buffalo Frostbite Win 15-4 1086.54 Jul 8th AntlerLock
51 TireBizFriz Loss 7-15 952.5 Jul 8th AntlerLock
154 Odyssey Loss 9-10 769.28 Jul 8th AntlerLock
79 Red Tide Loss 10-11 1246.93 Jul 9th AntlerLock
154 Odyssey Win 14-3 1494.28 Jul 9th AntlerLock
226 Buffalo Frostbite Win 9-0 1086.54 Jul 9th AntlerLock
206 Rebels Win 10-8 875.96 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
117 Chimney Loss 12-13 994.57 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
52 Oakgrove Boys** Loss 3-13 927.68 Ignored Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
158 Alibi Loss 9-10 762.94 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
228 Mischief Win 13-3 1066.63 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
206 Rebels Loss 7-10 223.62 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
209 Long Island Riff Raff Loss 11-12 464.54 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
202 Spring Break '93 Loss 9-13 241.56 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
238 Mohawk Valley Wild Win 12-9 672.72 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
158 Alibi Loss 10-12 649.82 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
202 Spring Break '93 Loss 8-13 163.97 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
209 Long Island Riff Raff Win 13-12 714.54 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
235 Adelphos Win 10-7 764.26 Aug 26th The Incident 2023
163 Crossfire Loss 8-10 596.71 Aug 26th The Incident 2023
115 Bomb Squad Loss 5-12 544.34 Aug 26th The Incident 2023
252 Deepfake Win 9-5 578.68 Aug 26th The Incident 2023
209 Long Island Riff Raff Win 15-11 970.71 Aug 27th The Incident 2023
154 Odyssey Win 12-11 1019.28 Aug 27th The Incident 2023
200 Rochester Open Club Win 9-4 1282.18 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
158 Alibi Loss 6-9 469.38 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
21 Phoenix** Loss 3-13 1259.25 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
238 Mohawk Valley Wild Win 13-3 927.36 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
226 Buffalo Frostbite Win 11-9 735.75 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
226 Buffalo Frostbite Loss 12-14 265.59 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)