#226 Buffalo Frostbite (9-22)

avg: 486.54  •  sd: 70.7  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
200 Rochester Open Club Loss 4-13 82.18 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
200 Rochester Open Club Loss 5-13 82.18 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
158 Alibi Loss 4-15 287.94 Jul 8th AntlerLock
189 Dirty Laundry Loss 4-15 148.17 Jul 8th AntlerLock
51 TireBizFriz** Loss 2-15 952.5 Ignored Jul 8th AntlerLock
189 Dirty Laundry Loss 0-9 148.17 Jul 9th AntlerLock
154 Odyssey Loss 5-14 294.28 Jul 9th AntlerLock
79 Red Tide** Loss 3-15 771.93 Ignored Jul 9th AntlerLock
200 Rochester Open Club Loss 4-11 82.18 Jul 22nd Rochester Round Robin 2
200 Rochester Open Club Loss 10-13 354.03 Jul 22nd Rochester Round Robin 2
238 Mohawk Valley Wild Loss 8-13 -168.8 Jul 22nd Rochester Round Robin 2
238 Mohawk Valley Wild Loss 5-13 -272.64 Jul 22nd Rochester Round Robin 2
80 Rumspringa** Loss 3-13 765.61 Ignored Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
84 Pittsburgh Stealers** Loss 4-13 727.67 Ignored Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
228 Mischief Win 13-8 962.79 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
158 Alibi Win 9-8 1012.94 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
252 Deepfake Win 12-6 628.93 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
206 Rebels Win 9-8 738.29 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
158 Alibi Loss 11-12 762.94 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
215 EZ Loss 7-13 -9.14 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
163 Crossfire Loss 6-13 259.38 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
158 Alibi Loss 5-13 287.94 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
215 EZ Win 13-11 777.24 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
202 Spring Break '93 Win 13-9 1078.7 Aug 20th Ow My Knee 2023
200 Rochester Open Club Win 13-12 807.18 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
158 Alibi Loss 6-11 341.25 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
238 Mohawk Valley Wild Win 13-7 884.89 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
21 Phoenix** Loss 1-13 1259.25 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
158 Alibi Loss 8-11 522.33 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
189 Dirty Laundry Loss 9-11 498.96 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
189 Dirty Laundry Win 14-12 969.12 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Upstate New York Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)