#153 Sprawl (11-19)

avg: 898.87  •  sd: 50.96  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
168 San Antonio Warhawks Loss 8-11 465.62 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
149 Rawhide Win 10-9 1052.02 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
69 Clutch Loss 9-11 1161.18 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
168 San Antonio Warhawks Loss 7-9 551.9 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
218 Supercell Win 12-4 1132.83 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
102 Harvey Cats Loss 6-10 711.03 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
165 Firefly TX Loss 6-10 362.01 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
149 Rawhide Loss 7-11 460.13 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
122 Lil Heroes Win 12-9 1433.79 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
197 Texas United Win 9-7 976.38 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
165 Firefly TX Loss 10-15 404.57 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
225 Forge Win 8-6 788.73 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
197 Texas United Win 11-10 822.04 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
98 Riverside Loss 9-11 1029.37 Aug 12th PBJ 2023
125 Cowtown Cannons Loss 10-11 931.61 Aug 12th PBJ 2023
122 Lil Heroes Loss 10-11 963.43 Aug 12th PBJ 2023
168 San Antonio Warhawks Win 11-9 1080.44 Aug 13th PBJ 2023
97 Texas Duffy Loss 7-13 724.61 Aug 13th PBJ 2023
165 Firefly TX Win 9-7 1137.51 Aug 13th PBJ 2023
68 Brawl Loss 8-12 977.4 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Texas Sectional Championship
129 Foxtrot Win 8-7 1167.89 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Texas Sectional Championship
50 H.I.P Loss 6-13 953.51 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Texas Sectional Championship
203 Shrimp Discs Win 13-11 880.87 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Texas Sectional Championship
165 Firefly TX Win 13-9 1276.74 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Texas Sectional Championship
125 Cowtown Cannons Loss 13-15 842.44 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Texas Sectional Championship
98 Riverside Loss 2-13 678.58 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
102 Harvey Cats Loss 9-11 957.99 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
8 Johnny Bravo** Loss 3-15 1512.77 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
69 Clutch Loss 3-13 810.39 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
122 Lil Heroes Loss 9-10 963.43 Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)