#36 BW Ultimate (25-11)

avg: 1511.22  •  sd: 48.35  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
202 Air Throwmads Win 15-7 1115.63 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
94 Mango Win 15-8 1641.99 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
181 VU** Win 15-3 1230.66 Ignored Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
49 Donuts Win 15-6 1996.52 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
37 LIT Ultimate Loss 7-13 951.67 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
138 Firefly** Win 15-5 1453.69 Ignored Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
39 Lotus Loss 12-15 1194.55 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
70 American Barbecue Win 8-5 1668.54 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
75 Cutthroat Loss 10-11 1061.95 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
33 Tower Win 9-7 1827.71 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
26 Sunshine Loss 6-15 1047.42 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
94 Mango Win 14-12 1298.14 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
37 LIT Ultimate Win 10-9 1634.2 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
169 Octonauts Win 13-6 1331.99 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
60 Minnesota Star Power Win 12-10 1533.88 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
139 Karma** Win 13-2 1451.96 Ignored Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
63 Pegasus Win 10-6 1755.58 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
33 Tower Loss 8-11 1182.76 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
10 Red Flag Loss 6-13 1276.21 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
45 Wild Card Win 11-10 1582.53 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
24 Loco Loss 6-9 1252.28 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
41 California Burrito Win 13-11 1717.06 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
31 Kansas City United Win 13-12 1720.15 Aug 27th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
45 Wild Card Win 12-9 1802.9 Aug 27th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
161 DR Win 13-6 1384.62 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
181 VU** Win 13-5 1230.66 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
33 Tower Loss 9-13 1129.81 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
75 Cutthroat Win 15-8 1751.76 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
37 LIT Ultimate Win 13-11 1738.04 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
33 Tower Loss 10-13 1220.23 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
49 Donuts Win 12-10 1634.64 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
18 Polar Bears Loss 5-15 1161.21 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
37 LIT Ultimate Win 9-8 1634.2 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
39 Lotus Win 13-7 2052.57 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
18 Polar Bears Win 15-14 1886.21 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
26 Sunshine Loss 13-14 1522.42 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)