#49 Donuts (19-18)

avg: 1396.52  •  sd: 48.33  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
161 DR** Win 15-2 1384.62 Ignored Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
138 Firefly Win 13-6 1453.69 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
224 Moonlight Ultimate** Win 15-1 927.66 Ignored Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
39 Lotus Loss 8-14 959 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
94 Mango Win 11-7 1544.07 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
37 LIT Ultimate Loss 11-13 1280.36 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
36 BW Ultimate Loss 6-15 911.22 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
26 Sunshine Loss 9-11 1398.21 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
37 LIT Ultimate Loss 7-10 1119.53 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
90 Hive Win 9-6 1506.94 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
72 Grit City Win 9-5 1724.43 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
67 Robot Win 11-10 1363.99 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
33 Tower Loss 8-12 1107.22 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
70 American Barbecue Loss 9-10 1089.93 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
109 Pushovers Win 15-9 1541 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
63 Pegasus Loss 9-11 1010.21 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
152 Family Style** Win 13-4 1395.65 Ignored Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
41 California Burrito Loss 10-14 1089.52 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
60 Minnesota Star Power Win 9-8 1420.76 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
32 Mile High Trash Loss 10-11 1437.85 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
23 Oregon Scorch Loss 10-11 1551.76 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
41 California Burrito Win 11-10 1613.22 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
45 Wild Card Loss 12-13 1332.53 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
39 Lotus Win 13-6 2095.04 Aug 27th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
41 California Burrito Loss 11-13 1259.38 Aug 27th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
215 Quails** Win 13-3 1019.03 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
94 Mango Win 13-7 1634.71 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
26 Sunshine Loss 7-12 1126.91 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
51 Classy Win 12-10 1621.93 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
33 Tower Loss 5-15 948.37 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
75 Cutthroat Win 15-6 1786.95 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
37 LIT Ultimate Win 14-13 1634.2 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
36 BW Ultimate Loss 10-12 1273.09 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
121 Party Wave Win 15-7 1567.89 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
41 California Burrito Loss 9-12 1142.86 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
51 Classy Win 11-6 1930.5 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
37 LIT Ultimate Loss 9-15 993.72 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)