#90 Hive (17-17)

avg: 1088.37  •  sd: 54.71  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
192 Drip Win 11-2 1161.34 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
125 Garage Sale Win 10-6 1429.32 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
172 Choco Ghost House Win 11-3 1290.8 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
173 Nebula Loss 7-8 556.68 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
49 Donuts Loss 6-9 977.95 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
26 Sunshine Loss 6-10 1151.26 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
37 LIT Ultimate Loss 2-12 909.2 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
94 Mango Loss 5-9 548.12 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
113 Shipwreck Win 12-8 1443.38 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
202 Air Throwmads Win 12-6 1094.94 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
72 Grit City Loss 6-12 616.06 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
127 Squid Inc. Win 13-7 1473.46 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
198 Breakers Mark Win 10-8 802.45 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
77 Bullet Train Loss 5-12 562.69 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
70 American Barbecue Win 9-7 1494.27 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
34 Spoke Loss 6-10 1048.17 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
127 Squid Inc. Loss 11-13 687.09 Aug 26th Spawnfest 2023
188 Fable Win 15-5 1173.54 Aug 26th Spawnfest 2023
125 Garage Sale Loss 11-12 808.16 Aug 26th Spawnfest 2023
181 VU Win 14-4 1230.66 Aug 26th Spawnfest 2023
127 Squid Inc. Loss 10-11 790.93 Aug 27th Spawnfest 2023
125 Garage Sale Loss 8-10 670.5 Aug 27th Spawnfest 2023
191 Mola Mola Win 15-7 1162.52 Aug 27th Spawnfest 2023
192 Drip Win 10-5 1135.24 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
240 SkyLab** Win 13-4 742.38 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
125 Garage Sale Loss 12-13 808.16 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
100 Igneous Ultimate Win 13-7 1603 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
23 Oregon Scorch Loss 7-15 1076.76 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
100 Igneous Ultimate Win 15-8 1610.28 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
63 Pegasus Loss 11-14 946.08 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
34 Spoke Loss 5-15 944.33 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
77 Bullet Train Win 12-8 1603.84 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
53 Quick Draw Loss 13-14 1225.55 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
72 Grit City Win 12-11 1320.37 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)