#77 Bullet Train (12-18)

avg: 1162.69  •  sd: 57.3  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
4 BFG** Loss 6-15 1359.6 Ignored Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
51 Classy Loss 8-13 887.64 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
17 Lawless** Loss 6-15 1163.19 Ignored Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
11 Seattle Mixtape** Loss 5-15 1274.03 Ignored Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
51 Classy Loss 2-15 783.8 Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
32 Mile High Trash Loss 6-14 962.85 Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
29 RAMP Loss 3-10 1022.75 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
47 Darkwing Loss 6-12 840.19 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
31 Kansas City United Loss 4-15 995.15 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
52 Roma Ultima Win 11-10 1479.1 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
27 Chicago Parlay Loss 6-12 1058.2 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
65 League of Shadows Loss 8-13 752.53 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
127 Squid Inc. Win 13-10 1244.07 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
198 Breakers Mark Win 12-7 1060.3 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
90 Hive Win 12-5 1688.37 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
34 Spoke Loss 9-10 1419.33 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
100 Igneous Ultimate Win 11-10 1170.47 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
72 Grit City Win 8-5 1648.98 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
10 Red Flag Loss 7-15 1276.21 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Washington Sectional Championship
83 Seattle Soft Serve Win 14-10 1530.71 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Washington Sectional Championship
34 Spoke Loss 6-13 944.33 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Washington Sectional Championship
127 Squid Inc. Win 12-11 1040.93 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Washington Sectional Championship
63 Pegasus Loss 11-12 1134.42 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Washington Sectional Championship
127 Squid Inc. Loss 7-15 315.93 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Washington Sectional Championship
129 TT Win 12-9 1248.05 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Washington Sectional Championship
4 BFG Loss 8-15 1394.79 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
90 Hive Loss 8-12 647.21 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
125 Garage Sale Win 15-9 1448.65 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
127 Squid Inc. Win 15-8 1480.74 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
118 Stump Win 14-5 1586.08 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)