#25 MOONDOG (19-11)

avg: 1648.28  •  sd: 48.77  •  top 16/20: 0.2%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
11 Seattle Mixtape Win 11-7 2340.92 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
18 Polar Bears Loss 11-12 1636.21 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
32 Mile High Trash Loss 8-11 1197.24 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
23 Oregon Scorch Loss 8-13 1180.6 Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
4 BFG Loss 11-13 1730.76 Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
35 Impact Loss 11-13 1288.25 Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
46 Revival Win 11-8 1801.67 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
52 Roma Ultima Win 11-8 1719.71 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
28 Flight Club Loss 9-10 1510.27 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
10 Red Flag Loss 9-14 1402.35 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
31 Kansas City United Win 12-9 1940.52 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
30 Waterloo Win 12-11 1740.31 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
26 Sunshine Win 13-10 1975.56 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
58 Lights Out Win 12-6 1890.35 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
31 Kansas City United Win 13-9 2013.72 Aug 26th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
11 Seattle Mixtape Loss 11-13 1645.19 Aug 27th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
23 Oregon Scorch Win 13-11 1905.6 Aug 27th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
51 Classy Win 12-9 1729.17 Aug 27th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2023
53 Quick Draw Win 13-10 1678.7 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Big Sky Sectional Championship
74 Sego Win 11-9 1440.55 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Big Sky Sectional Championship
143 Bozos** Win 15-2 1432.01 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Big Sky Sectional Championship
74 Sego Win 15-10 1644.95 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Big Sky Sectional Championship
180 Fishpix! Win 15-7 1235.61 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Big Sky Sectional Championship
10 Red Flag Loss 10-15 1422.61 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
34 Spoke Win 14-10 1943.03 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
118 Stump Win 15-7 1586.08 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
72 Grit City Win 15-7 1795.37 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
10 Red Flag Loss 9-15 1360.73 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
4 BFG Loss 10-14 1560.9 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
58 Lights Out Win 14-12 1532 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)