#47 Beacon (20-11)

avg: 1563.24  •  sd: 63.34  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
130 Diesel Win 15-7 1640.66 Jun 17th SCINNY1
166 Enigma** Win 15-3 1439.67 Ignored Jun 17th SCINNY1
117 Chimney Win 15-5 1719.57 Jun 17th SCINNY1
205 On Ramp** Win 15-2 1240.19 Ignored Jun 18th SCINNY1
75 Flying Dutchmen Win 15-4 1977.54 Jun 18th SCINNY1
63 I-69 Win 14-7 2032.2 Jun 18th SCINNY1
57 Fungi Loss 9-10 1367.54 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
38 Phantom Loss 5-11 1024.98 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
82 Lantern Win 13-12 1474.71 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
75 Flying Dutchmen Win 13-9 1796.1 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
46 DeMo Loss 9-15 1048.16 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
55 Colonels Loss 11-12 1378.69 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
76 Haymaker Loss 12-13 1252.16 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
46 DeMo Loss 10-12 1325.52 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
17 STL Lounar Loss 7-13 1351.82 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
106 MKE Win 12-9 1527.78 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
29 Mallard Loss 4-15 1128.26 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
96 Bux Win 14-7 1871.75 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
90 HouSE Win 15-8 1861.35 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
253 Scoop** Win 13-2 648.49 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
228 Mischief** Win 13-5 1066.63 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
166 Enigma** Win 15-4 1439.67 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
55 Colonels Loss 13-15 1289.51 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
166 Enigma** Win 15-6 1439.67 Ignored Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
75 Flying Dutchmen Loss 14-15 1252.54 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Plains Sectional Championship
27 Omen Win 13-9 2158.35 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
126 Blink-122 Weekends Win 13-7 1611.92 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
228 Mischief** Win 13-2 1066.63 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
76 Haymaker Win 15-11 1758.32 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
34 Trident I Win 12-10 1899.93 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
5 Chicago Machine Loss 9-15 1674.22 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)