#70 OAT (19-10)

avg: 1399.46  •  sd: 38.34  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
15 GOAT Loss 8-15 1407.47 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
18 Dark Star-D Loss 5-15 1283.29 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
14 Sockeye** Loss 3-15 1399.88 Ignored Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
48 Alamode Loss 8-12 1115.78 Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
57 Fungi Win 11-10 1617.54 Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
141 Make it Rain Win 15-4 1571.54 Jul 9th TCT Pro Elite Challenge West 2023
176 Battery Win 14-6 1417.3 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
74 Hazard Win 13-9 1802.02 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
171 Sonoran Dog Win 13-6 1428.2 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
54 ISO Atmo Loss 11-15 1138.18 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
36 Kansas City Smokestack Loss 9-10 1516.9 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
99 SOUF Win 15-9 1770.49 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
102 Harvey Cats Win 11-8 1572.8 Aug 26th The Incident 2023
209 Long Island Riff Raff Win 13-6 1189.54 Aug 26th The Incident 2023
202 Spring Break '93 Win 13-7 1217.66 Aug 26th The Incident 2023
154 Odyssey Win 12-9 1239.65 Aug 26th The Incident 2023
102 Harvey Cats Win 14-8 1743.23 Aug 27th The Incident 2023
163 Crossfire Win 15-8 1424.18 Aug 27th The Incident 2023
199 Fresno Firefall Win 15-9 1209.89 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Nor Cal Sectional Championship
145 Green River Swordfish Win 15-13 1178.44 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Nor Cal Sectional Championship
140 Mavericks Win 15-2 1573.6 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Nor Cal Sectional Championship
20 Zyzzyva Loss 10-15 1406.6 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Nor Cal Sectional Championship
140 Mavericks Win 14-8 1509.64 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Nor Cal Sectional Championship
176 Battery Win 15-9 1332.78 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
145 Green River Swordfish Win 15-6 1564.26 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
22 SoCal Condors Loss 9-15 1336.92 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
78 Drought Win 14-12 1595.07 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
58 Skipjack Loss 14-15 1365.71 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
66 OC Crows Loss 9-15 921.4 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)