#61 Lost Boys (16-14)

avg: 1465.93  •  sd: 48.39  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
134 Dyno Win 13-8 1522.32 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
93 Charleston Heat Stroke Win 10-8 1554.03 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
56 Little Red Wagon Win 12-9 1843.28 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
88 Black Lung Loss 9-12 957.38 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
64 Hooch Loss 10-12 1210.44 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
30 Delirium Loss 10-11 1553.68 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
83 Red Wolves Win 10-6 1844.14 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
55 Colonels Win 11-10 1628.69 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
21 Phoenix Loss 12-13 1734.25 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
24 Blueprint Win 10-9 1889.52 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
15 GOAT Loss 6-15 1372.27 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
30 Delirium Loss 9-11 1429.47 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
144 Music City Mafia Win 15-3 1565.1 Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
138 Queen City Kings Win 15-3 1595.15 Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
85 Space Cowboys Loss 12-13 1187.3 Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
40 Cash Crop 2 Loss 10-15 1166.77 Aug 13th HoDown Showdown 2023
101 Triumph Win 15-11 1593.89 Aug 13th HoDown Showdown 2023
30 Delirium Loss 10-15 1225.07 Aug 13th HoDown Showdown 2023
167 Pulp** Win 13-4 1438.31 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
100 Python Win 13-12 1339.01 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
93 Charleston Heat Stroke Win 13-11 1520.2 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
30 Delirium Loss 10-13 1350.54 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
85 Space Cowboys Win 15-11 1693.47 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
56 Little Red Wagon Win 15-8 2062.72 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
35 baNC Loss 10-13 1316.19 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
28 Tanasi Win 9-8 1857.45 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
42 UpRoar Loss 8-11 1239.71 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
56 Little Red Wagon Loss 12-15 1197.42 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
114 Bloom Win 15-14 1274.31 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
85 Space Cowboys Loss 11-13 1083.46 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)