#27 Chicago Parlay (19-5)

avg: 1637.51  •  sd: 47.18  •  top 16/20: 0.2%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
51 Classy Loss 8-9 1258.8 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
5 Cleveland Crocs Loss 5-12 1336.51 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
65 League of Shadows Win 12-7 1769.2 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
46 Revival Win 12-8 1877.21 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
57 Steamboat Win 12-9 1684.77 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
77 Bullet Train Win 12-6 1742 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
88 Spectre Win 13-1 1708.62 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
86 Mad Udderburn Win 12-7 1641.65 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
60 Minnesota Star Power Win 13-6 1895.76 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
85 Risky Business Win 15-8 1691.28 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
73 Northern Comfort Win 15-4 1794.2 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
54 No Touching! Win 15-3 1944.08 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
136 Skyhawks Win 15-8 1420.82 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
165 Prion** Win 15-4 1361.72 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
167 Indiana Pterodactyl Attack** Win 15-3 1347.33 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
92 Three Rivers Ultimate Club Win 15-4 1685.54 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
29 RAMP Loss 9-12 1277.38 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
92 Three Rivers Ultimate Club Win 15-7 1685.54 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
57 Steamboat Win 14-10 1738.11 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship
110 Trex Mix Win 15-9 1528.63 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship
5 Cleveland Crocs Loss 10-14 1537.81 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship
29 RAMP Win 15-9 2138.23 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship
105 Bandwagon Win 15-11 1409.4 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship
5 Cleveland Crocs Loss 3-15 1336.51 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)