#12 'Shine (20-8)

avg: 1851.08  •  sd: 68.7  •  top 16/20: 81.7%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
50 Jughandle Loss 8-15 828.64 Jun 24th FROGS
45 Wild Card Win 15-12 1758.03 Jun 24th FROGS
6 Sprocket Loss 13-15 1710.78 Jun 24th FROGS
65 League of Shadows** Win 15-6 1848.69 Ignored Jun 24th FROGS
14 Rally Loss 11-15 1452.58 Jun 25th FROGS
46 Revival Win 13-6 2036.06 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
16 Hybrid Loss 10-15 1370.25 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
42 The Chad Larson Experience Win 15-7 2081.04 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
6 Sprocket Win 15-10 2378.57 Jul 16th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
5 Cleveland Crocs Win 12-10 2174.63 Jul 16th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
3 AMP Win 9-8 2192.85 Jul 16th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
19 Public Enemy Loss 11-12 1613.53 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
13 Slow Loss 13-15 1635.4 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
5 Cleveland Crocs Loss 10-11 1811.51 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
43 Dirty Bird Win 13-7 2035.85 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
13 Slow Loss 9-13 1431.02 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
21 Love Tractor Win 14-11 2020.37 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
52 Roma Ultima Win 13-7 1911.63 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
148 Verdant** Win 13-4 1410.39 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
220 Hairy Otter** Win 13-0 975.26 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
43 Dirty Bird Win 15-11 1859.48 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
52 Roma Ultima Win 15-11 1735.26 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
79 Brunch Club Win 13-6 1749.12 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mixed Regional Championship
108 Bear Jordan** Win 13-4 1627.09 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mixed Regional Championship
61 Malice in Wonderland Win 13-4 1894.25 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mixed Regional Championship
69 Too Much Fun** Win 15-6 1817.28 Ignored Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mixed Regional Championship
20 Toro Win 15-11 2118.65 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mixed Regional Championship
22 Storm Win 15-7 2289.35 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)