Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2017-18 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 2.128 2.348 1.928 1.892 2.741 1.764 1.904 1.295
Autos (all @ 1) 1.128 1.348 0.928 0.892 1.741 0.764 0.904 0.295
Northwest (@ 2) 1.128 1.348 0.928 0.892 0.741 0.764 0.904 0.295
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) 1.128 0.348 0.928 0.892 0.741 0.764 0.904 0.295
Great Lakes (@ 2) 0.128 0.348 0.928 0.892 0.741 0.764 0.904 0.295
North Central (@ 2) 0.128 0.348 -0.072 0.892 0.741 0.764 0.904 0.295
Southeast (@ 2) 0.128 0.348 -0.072 0.892 0.741 0.764 -0.096 0.295
Northeast (@ 2) 0.128 0.348 -0.072 -0.108 0.741 0.764 -0.096 0.295
South Central (@ 2) 0.128 0.348 -0.072 -0.108 0.741 -0.236 -0.096 0.295
Northwest (@ 3) 0.128 0.348 -0.072 -0.108 -0.259 -0.236 -0.096 0.295
Total 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Revolver 1 2349.15 71.69 1/7 6-1
2 Sockeye 1 2321.16 88.99 1/11 5-1
3 Ring of Fire 1 2211.14 74.33 1/15 5-2
4 Pittsburgh Temper 0.998 2183.51 88.57 1/18 12-1
5 Chicago Machine 0.977 2104.77 94.39 1/24 8-5
6 DiG 0.968 2087.54 89.88 1/22 10-3
7 Madison Club 0.962 2066.53 86.39 1/22 4-2
8 Johnny Bravo 0.931 2030.86 75.32 3/21 7-6
9 Furious George 0.876 2028.22 102.7 2/30 11-2
10 Rhino Slam 0.865 1996.78 80.96 3/24 17-3
11 PoNY 0.864 2004.42 90.22 2/27 7-6
12 Sub Zero 0.848 2029.86 107.79 1/26 8-5
13 HIGH FIVE 0.847 2025.1 111.36 1/33 3-4
14 Doublewide 0.833 1991.79 79.15 3/24 7-7
15 Truck Stop 0.595 1934.77 100.5 3/30 5-8
16 Patrol 0.555 1934.02 138.58 1/42 3-4
17 Turbine 0.497 1895.81 202.43 1/75 6-0
18 Chain Lightning 0.404 1884.71 175.82 1/59 6-0
19 Brickyard 0.303 1870.67 84.84 6/37 6-1
20 Richmond Floodwall 0.2 1833.06 101.22 5/50 11-2
21 Guerrilla 0.176 1831.91 92.7 6/39 7-6
22 SoCal Condors 0.119 1771.93 114.91 4/54 2-4
23 Prairie Fire 0.111 1788.63 94.31 7/39 10-3
24 All Bashed Out 0.03 1735.35 91.33 8/52 3-1
25 Overcast 0.03 1583.37 164.98 7/99 6-0
26 General Strike 0.007 1623.05 100.21 12/76 6-1
27 Freaks 0.003 1727.22 49.47 14/34 17-3
28 CLE Smokestack 0.001 1582.42 86.48 16/66 8-4
29 Big Wrench 0 1725.92 54.35 17/36 13-4
30 Inception 0 1678.55 65.21 17/49 11-1
31 Medicine Men 0 1611.26 74.15 18/58 4-9
32 Voodoo 0 1591.43 74.73 21/57 8-6
33 NSOM 0 1570.06 97.14 19/72 3-2
34 Mallard 0 1559.91 70.95 22/59 8-0
35 Brickhouse 0 1554.76 90.73 19/64 7-5
36 CaSTLe 0 1549.73 82.26 20/65 9-2
37 Lost Boys 0 1521.72 69.21 20/64 11-7
38 Streetgang 0 1517.31 53.23 26/59 6-1
39 Coastal Empire 0 1496.64 81.4 21/70 3-2
40 Oakgrove Boys 0 1489.16 84.77 21/82 8-5
41 Blueprint 0 1488.22 62.58 27/62 10-9
42 Nitro 0 1486.06 104.17 21/81 8-4
43 Clutch 0 1469.27 73.08 27/71 12-1
44 BroCats 0 1464.03 109.43 22/81 3-3
45 Four 0 1455.68 64.96 23/72 7-5
46 Dark Star 0 1434.04 74.26 29/76 6-8
47 Colt 0 1433.24 78.32 26/75 11-8
48 Black Market 0 1432.47 56.22 28/68 15-10
49 Blackfish 0 1426.38 130.65 21/104 4-2
50 CITYWIDE Special 0 1423.32 89.72 25/88 5-7
51 Mad Men 0 1419.41 65.87 31/79 8-12
52 Bullet 0 1416.16 90.26 25/82 10-2
53 Johnny Encore 0 1413.25 53.95 33/74 3-2
54 Tanasi 0 1412.87 59.66 31/73 13-6
55 Greater Gary Goblins Y 0 1411.84 89.79 23/87 6-1
56 Ghost Train 0 1395.69 108.16 23/98 3-3
57 Club M - Manic 0 1381.74 102.59 25/102 3-4
58 Shade 0 1378.22 73.48 28/81 10-3
59 MKE 0 1375.56 68.1 31/82 7-5
60 Slag Dump 0 1365.54 143.75 21/120 3-2
61 Ironmen 0 1325.54 53.91 39/83 14-6
62 Omen 0 1318.49 73.56 34/88 10-4
63 Haymaker 0 1301.26 75.47 30/100 1-5
64 El Niño 0 1277.98 69.75 42/94 12-2
65 Sawtooth 0 1273.73 88.03 36/106 5-7
66 Papa Bear 0 1268.05 57.98 46/89 9-3
67 Johnny Walker 0 1267.23 114.5 27/116 3-3
68 Ham 0 1262.53 116.56 28/122 3-3
69 Whiskeyjacks 0 1261.64 75.64 43/101 5-2
70 Sherbrooke Gentlemen's Club 0 1258.31 83.68 35/108 3-3
71 Illusion 0 1253.95 74.08 38/100 4-8
72 Greater Gary Goblins X 0 1245.28 101.47 31/121 4-2
73 Riverside 0 1220.85 67.85 47/111 10-4
74 DeMo 0 1220.45 59.73 46/109 11-4
75 Red Tide 0 1216.85 63.72 41/102 14-5
76 Gamble 0 1215.16 53.99 52/98 12-6
77 Deathsquad 0 1197.25 53.32 52/107 11-7
78 Westchester Magma Bears 0 1196.9 53.67 57/103 11-7
79 John Doe 0 1188.73 56.49 57/102 1-11
80 Pesterbug 0 1185.84 98.24 39/126 6-5
81 Red Circus 0 1173.37 147.64 31/138 5-1
82 Supercell 0 1170.51 52.4 62/108 14-5
83 DOGGPOUND 0 1168.16 74.62 53/113 3-4
84 Imperial 0 1152.35 73.22 54/115 6-7
85 Black Lung 0 1152.18 68.02 56/115 6-5
86 Sundowners 0 1124.55 61.51 58/113 4-3
87 The Killjoys 0 1115.29 55.46 68/113 0-4
88 Scythe 0 1081.95 42.71 73/114 14-12
89 Club M - Magma 0 1078.31 143.47 30/141 3-3
90 Bruises 0 1076.09 68.14 66/123 7-10
91 Memphis Belle 0 1069.25 54.43 72/122 10-7
92 Gaucho 0 1059.9 72.78 67/129 8-5
93 BaNC 0 1052.86 80.83 69/132 5-8
94 Shrike 0 1049.66 97.41 53/132 3-3
95 Babe 0 1044.53 95.19 56/142 8-4
96 Rush Hour 0 1043.24 80.3 68/130 5-7
97 Sprawl 0 1037.51 128.86 52/149 4-3
98 H.O.G. Ultimate 0 1035.51 70.91 68/130 9-5
99 Cockfight 0 1032.53 94.39 61/135 6-7
100 Rip City Ultimate 0 1024.35 71.69 73/132 5-9
101 ISO Atmo 0 1016.04 80.47 67/135 6-7
102 Choice City Hops 0 1015.26 90.44 62/132 6-7
103 Adelphos 0 1015.09 74.65 71/131 5-7
104 Omen 0 1010.7 61.89 74/129 6-6
105 Swamp Horse 0 1002.78 52.25 80/127 8-12
106 JAWN 0 986.09 63.62 78/133 5-7
107 Rougaroux 0 983.64 59.13 77/129 7-7
108 Watchdogs 0 982.34 118.2 59/141 5-5
109 UpRoar 0 966.69 59.72 80/133 6-8
110 Prime 0 965.59 63.48 85/135 6-6
111 Town Hall Stars 0 965.38 97.59 66/142 5-7
112 Southern Hospitality 0 953.18 74.99 77/139 4-9
113 Watch City 0 948.58 81.22 77/141 5-6
114 Dreadnought 0 948.11 61.92 80/136 8-9
115 MomINtuM 0 946.01 56.16 87/133 10-3
116 Dynasty 0 944.85 79.01 80/136 9-4
117 Pipeline 0 938.98 101.9 58/142 3-3
118 Enigma 0 938.86 64.38 80/137 13-6
119 PowderHogs 0 933.64 59.6 84/135 7-11
120 houSE 0 910.83 83.09 70/141 4-2
121 Carbon 0 897.62 99.4 74/149 2-5
122 Green River Swordfish 0 896.21 123.07 62/156 2-5
123 Somerville BAG 0 881.43 106.64 70/155 4-6
124 Battery 0 872.89 136.41 65/163 2-4
125 Space Coast Ultimate 0 860.93 84.52 86/147 4-2
126 KC SmokeStack 0 852.78 60.79 86/143 8-12
127 Satellite 0 826.02 84.3 93/150 9-4
128 Cryptic 0 821.07 83.5 88/148 6-5
129 THE BODY 0 808.18 106.77 83/160 4-8
130 Helots 0 797.86 89.95 89/155 2-9
131 Chimney 0 782.7 49.42 110/146 3-4
132 Holy City Heathens 0 778.47 73.55 97/150 3-9
133 Wisconsin Hops 0 775.3 99.54 93/161 3-3
134 Quantum 0 737.82 155.28 83/172 0-5
135 Dallas United: Bazooka 0 732.78 52.08 119/153 4-9
136 Syndicate 0 729.36 73.94 108/161 4-10
137 Riverside Messengers-B 0 708.64 77.61 112/159 3-4
138 Vicious Cycle 0 702.32 100.8 109/162 3-4
139 Mango Tree 0 676.7 65.87 118/156 3-4
140 ScooberDivers 0 666.68 119.42 103/168 3-3
141 Bomb Squad 0 655.19 176.73 76/173 2-3
142 BlackER Market 0 654.54 97.02 112/169 2-4
143 One Night 0 646.01 63.44 126/160 3-10
144 Rampage 0 637.2 57.21 122/158 5-9
145 Gridlock 0 626.18 95.91 113/167 1-6
146 Illinois Youth Ultimate - u20 0 624.33 93.12 121/167 4-3
147 Ender's Outcasts 0 599.14 104.71 120/167 3-4
148 DUCS 0 592.67 62.6 130/164 4-9
149 Foxtrot 0 582.99 80.62 123/168 3-10
150 Winc City Fog of War 0 580.16 89.06 125/170 3-9
151 Kentucky Flying Circus 0 551.19 104.4 126/170 2-5
152 Philadelphia Padawans 0 537.26 0 146/158 1-0
153 Green Bay Quackers 0 520.89 98.97 129/171 2-4
154 The Bayou Boys 0 516.93 111.66 124/172 3-9
155 Dirty D 0 489.78 58.28 138/170 4-8
156 Rawhide 0 485.01 53.35 145/167 2-16
157 Duel 0 478.66 72.99 138/170 3-4
158 BromINtum 0 475.77 162.25 115/173 2-5
159 Tyranny 0 465.85 95.51 131/172 1-5
160 Black Market II 0 425.17 59.48 146/170 7-19
161 Whitefish 0 423.04 154.21 122/173 1-6
162 Flicky Stardust and the Cutters From Mars 0 392.15 200.57 90/173 0-6
163 Baemaker 0 377.57 60.58 149/171 1-5
164 Shrimp Boat 0 359.32 119.16 135/173 1-5
165 Midnight Meat Train 0 352.42 105.42 135/173 2-9
166 Confluence 0 347.57 42.47 155/171 0-6
167 Shore Break 0 342.46 109.51 138/173 1-5
168 Hippie Mafia 0 323.78 123.76 136/173 2-4
169 Fifty-Fifty 0 311.18 151.6 131/173 1-5
170 War Machine 0 309.47 75.24 152/173 1-18
171 Surrillic Audovice 0 238.57 101.18 149/173 1-12
172 Ironside 0 185.73 78.29 157/173 3-10
173 Bird Patrol 0 71.6 193.1 139/173 1-4

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)