Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2017-18 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Great Lakes 0
3 Mid-Atlantic 2.85 AMP 100.00%,   Loco 88.30%,   Space Heater 80.40%,   Rally 12.30%,   Alloy 3.80%,   Jughandle 0.60%,  
2 North Central 2.36 Drag'n Thrust 100.00%,   NOISE 53.80%,   No Touching! 41.80%,   The Chad Larson Experience 39.90%,   Minnesota Star Power 0.40%,   Woodwork 0.40%,  
3 Northeast 3.38 Snake Country 99.80%,   Slow White 97.80%,   Wild Card 90.70%,   League of Shadows 37.80%,   Happy Valley 5.10%,   Battleship 2.30%,   XIST 2.10%,   Metro North 0.70%,   UNION 0.60%,   Anchor 0.50%,   VIP Club 0.10%,   Alt Stacks 0.10%,   Heartless 0.10%,  
2 Northwest 2.78 BFG 100.00%,   Seattle Mixtape 78.90%,   Lochsa 67.40%,   Birdfruit 31.90%,   Lights Out 0.10%,  
2 South Central 1.98 Love Tractor 83.10%,   shame. 76.60%,   Public Enemy 33.70%,   Five One Two 4.50%,   Mesteño 0.20%,  
1 Southeast 0.82 Toro 74.70%,   Bucket 7.20%,   Weird 0.10%,  
2 Southwest 1.82 Polar Bears 82.90%,   Mischief 43.20%,   Blackbird 33.00%,   7 Figures 21.20%,   Brewcade 1.90%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region GL MA NC NE NW SC SE SW
Initial 0.000 2.854 2.363 3.377 2.783 1.981 0.820 1.822
Autos (all @ 1) -1.000 1.854 1.363 2.377 1.783 0.981 -0.180 0.822
Northeast (@ 2) -1.000 1.854 1.363 1.377 1.783 0.981 -0.180 0.822
Mid-Atlantic (@ 2) -1.000 0.854 1.363 1.377 1.783 0.981 -0.180 0.822
Northwest (@ 2) -1.000 0.854 1.363 1.377 0.783 0.981 -0.180 0.822
Northeast (@ 3) -1.000 0.854 1.363 0.377 0.783 0.981 -0.180 0.822
North Central (@ 2) -1.000 0.854 0.363 0.377 0.783 0.981 -0.180 0.822
South Central (@ 2) -1.000 0.854 0.363 0.377 0.783 -0.019 -0.180 0.822
Mid-Atlantic (@ 3) -1.000 -0.146 0.363 0.377 0.783 -0.019 -0.180 0.822
Southwest (@ 2) -1.000 -0.146 0.363 0.377 0.783 -0.019 -0.180 -0.178
Total 1 3 2 3 2 2 1 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 AMP 1 2182.89 67.55 1/6 16-2
2 BFG 1 2167.08 91.88 1/9 6-1
3 Drag'n Thrust 1 2051.91 46.34 1/8 13-3
4 Snake Country 0.998 1986.08 79.32 1/22 11-3
5 Slow White 0.978 1918.64 70.55 1/27 9-5
6 Wild Card 0.907 1882.51 81.66 2/27 9-4
7 Loco 0.883 1885.75 91.06 1/31 21-1
8 Love Tractor 0.831 1848 71.21 3/30 14-6
9 Polar Bears 0.829 1858.88 87.59 1/32 11-2
10 Space Heater 0.804 1861.93 93.62 1/34 7-3
11 Seattle Mixtape 0.789 1844.03 77.54 3/29 4-3
12 shame. 0.766 1859.75 97.16 1/34 8-4
13 Toro 0.747 1828.3 75.59 3/34 12-3
14 Lochsa 0.674 1815.5 77.27 3/36 10-3
15 NOISE 0.538 1785.87 79.02 3/36 8-9
16 Mischief 0.432 1769.62 69.14 3/37 9-3
17 No Touching! 0.418 1768.79 73.14 4/42 3-3
18 The Chad Larson Experience 0.399 1756.2 104.09 2/48 15-2
19 League of Shadows 0.378 1753.05 76.29 5/42 11-3
20 Public Enemy 0.337 1750.59 65.69 5/36 7-6
21 Blackbird 0.33 1747.85 88.39 3/43 8-5
22 Birdfruit 0.319 1756.75 55.22 7/33 6-6
23 7 Figures 0.212 1714.95 82.59 3/45 7-6
24 Rally 0.123 1719.04 51.2 8/36 13-7
25 Bucket 0.072 1622.1 112.54 3/84 10-3
26 Happy Valley 0.051 1502.29 167.37 5/115 7-0
27 Five One Two 0.045 1524.01 154.63 5/106 4-2
28 Alloy 0.038 1578.02 111.54 7/85 4-6
29 Battleship 0.023 1561.69 112.14 7/82 2-5
30 XIST 0.021 1673.51 52.32 13/42 10-10
31 Brewcade 0.019 1458.42 147.67 6/116 5-1
32 Metro North 0.007 1571.15 75.44 12/61 5-7
33 UNION 0.006 1630.67 56.82 13/53 19-10
34 Jughandle 0.006 1622.59 60.89 13/47 15-10
35 Anchor 0.005 1612.96 60.51 13/53 3-4
36 Woodwork 0.004 1556.8 95.99 11/74 13-4
37 Minnesota Star Power 0.004 1405.6 133.59 11/126 4-5
38 Mesteño 0.002 1506.62 87.25 15/71 6-7
39 Lights Out 0.001 1562.9 71.27 12/58 11-3
40 Weird 0.001 1545.85 58.24 14/52 16-4
41 Heartless 0.001 1432.87 105.8 14/95 12-2
42 VIP Club 0.001 1345.48 150.02 10/142 4-2
43 Alt Stacks 0.001 1298.27 129.12 16/152 6-1
44 Storm 0 1526.42 62.34 24/65 14-13
45 Classy 0 1500.89 59.71 24/68 13-7
46 BW Ultimate 0 1499.98 77.48 17/73 9-3
47 Steamboat 0 1470.43 65.86 22/72 2-11
48 Mixfits 0 1464.45 98.4 19/86 9-4
49 Darkwing 0 1434.31 103.9 20/98 9-3
50 Cosa Nostra 0 1405.87 56.8 31/82 11-7
51 Northern Comfort 0 1401.9 58.75 30/79 12-6
52 Columbus Cocktails 0 1397.96 73.29 31/91 10-3
53 Bozos 0 1381.52 76.76 31/94 5-7
54 Garbage 0 1375.02 95.35 24/108 6-1
55 ROBOS 0 1371.66 99.31 25/104 5-0
56 Toast 0 1367.89 101.8 21/110 7-1
57 Crash 0 1367.42 68.39 31/94 0-7
58 The Administrators 0 1361.61 73.33 28/91 10-1
59 Murmur 0 1355.07 56.43 35/88 14-7
60 Sunken Circus 0 1345.23 88.35 27/107 10-3
61 Thoroughbred 0 1342.84 84.36 28/101 6-6
62 FlyTrap 0 1339.83 74.3 33/96 11-4
63 Mental Toss Flycoons 0 1335.24 59.67 40/92 2-4
64 'Shine 0 1334.86 111.08 25/125 10-4
65 Tyrannis 0 1307.08 72.47 35/106 11-4
66 Rowdy 0 1294.19 66.73 39/98 15-6
67 Chaotic Good 0 1288.94 67.37 38/99 13-7
68 NC Galaxy 0 1281.67 49.8 44/99 9-5
69 Titan NE 0 1272.6 50.89 48/100 14-6
70 8 Bit Heroes 0 1267.11 54.41 48/103 13-9
71 Mutiny 0 1263.8 65.09 45/116 18-7
72 Malice in Wonderland 0 1262.19 65.99 41/112 10-6
73 Method 0 1255.06 64.98 46/110 15-7
74 The Feminists 0 1248.11 37.62 54/94 6-15
75 Tex Mix 0 1245.57 93.16 34/121 15-3
76 JLP 0 1243.21 66.76 42/111 13-9
77 Distelfink 0 1242.06 63.58 44/107 11-7
78 Long Beach Legacy 0 1228.15 68.82 43/117 10-4
79 Cutthroat 0 1226.94 69.53 42/121 6-5
80 Tequila Mockingbird 0 1220.87 87.5 39/131 7-6
81 Rubix 0 1211.73 59.63 49/112 10-2
82 Alchemy 0 1207.59 39.49 60/102 5-8
83 Chalice 0 1199.88 65.75 51/117 7-7
84 Grand Army 0 1194.5 69.58 44/122 9-4
85 Cahoots 0 1180.14 87.84 46/147 8-7
86 Family Style 0 1179.09 90.62 46/138 4-4
87 Sparkle Ponies 0 1178.77 61.32 51/119 12-8
88 tHUMP 0 1178.75 70.14 44/120 9-5
89 Happy Hour 0 1165.37 80.36 46/132 7-4
90 Sweet Action 0 1162.45 74.47 50/127 2-9
91 Firefly 0 1133.92 64.35 63/125 7-7
92 Hybrid 0 1129.85 66.54 62/134 10-3
93 Sellout 0 1124.8 105.47 44/150 4-3
94 Nautilus 0 1112.89 148.84 37/182 4-3
95 Townies 0 1111.07 71.27 57/135 7-6
96 Birds 0 1110.87 79.01 55/140 11-3
97 Igneous Ultimate 0 1108.58 30.2 83/114 5-6
98 Instant Karma 0 1107.97 69.19 63/132 8-4
99 Ant Madness 0 1102.04 74 59/141 10-11
100 Huntsville Outlaws 0 1101.81 81.87 50/149 17-5
101 Trash Pandas 0 1095.03 70.15 62/143 10-10
102 Boomtown 0 1072.55 62.47 70/143 15-4
103 Albany Airbenders 0 1069.72 107.68 45/171 7-5
104 Jackpot 0 1060.56 73.62 71/154 9-5
105 Garbage Plates 0 1054.09 116.85 39/164 4-3
106 Pegasus 0 1053.37 62.77 70/145 3-9
107 WHUF 0 1052.36 82.29 58/161 6-5
108 Bird 0 1051.52 72.02 62/143 11-4
109 Petey's Pirates 0 1048.24 99.93 59/156 9-6
110 Default 0 1035.34 102.98 56/174 3-3
111 American Barbecue 0 1023.18 96.74 65/180 5-8
112 Platypi 0 1015.92 58 79/145 12-14
113 Superstition 0 1005.72 56.08 82/145 7-11
114 STAX 0 1001.97 78.71 71/157 10-4
115 Mojo Jojo 0 994.69 74.88 77/154 12-5
116 Mimosas 0 994.1 63.52 87/156 4-2
117 The Bandits 0 993.58 64.55 78/151 9-8
118 American Hyperbole 0 990.65 54.41 83/150 8-12
119 Donuts 0 986.66 91.1 69/164 8-5
120 Shakedown 0 985.29 57.39 76/149 10-14
121 Moonshine 0 971.89 57.12 92/152 17-7
122 Impact 0 969.48 74.21 83/163 14-7
123 Scarecrow 0 968.06 65.7 90/160 7-6
124 The Process 0 950.22 88.81 71/175 7-7
125 Risky Business 0 947.36 61.92 91/160 9-4
126 Rocket LawnChair 0 940.05 58.98 96/159 11-8
127 Blitzkrieg 0 936.37 72.3 90/171 13-6
128 Buffalo Lake Effect 0 933.37 66.89 90/163 6-7
129 Robot 0 929.44 129.15 61/191 4-3
130 Funk 0 921.78 87.25 79/176 7-6
131 LoveShack 0 908.11 45.06 107/160 9-18
132 Rat City 0 901.56 67.71 98/171 6-6
133 Bulleit Train 0 895.6 76.76 79/178 3-4
134 Legion 0 894.1 104.63 80/185 7-7
135 California Burrito 0 887 65.69 93/172 7-6
136 Breakers Mark 0 880.82 60.96 106/171 1-3
137 Goose Lee 0 878.06 60.7 104/168 6-9
138 panIC 0 872.58 77.04 93/178 7-6
139 Argo 0 865.39 101.49 83/201 3-4
140 Moontower 0 860.54 71.49 100/176 7-4
141 HAOS 0 859.82 88.69 83/184 3-9
142 ELevate 0 854.69 82.39 92/184 10-7
143 Buckwild 0 853.02 76.17 97/176 11-9
144 Flight Club 0 841.43 198.52 52/217 4-1
145 Mad Udderburn 0 837.68 71.94 108/173 8-9
146 Crucible 0 834.44 68.16 107/181 10-13
147 Enough Monkeys 0 828.38 98.67 93/192 6-7
148 Los Heros 0 824.3 77.85 103/189 7-6
149 HVAC 0 819.87 103.68 95/201 4-2
150 Stoke 0 807.46 63.79 111/182 8-10
151 Powermove 0 793.72 88.95 101/190 6-8
152 Prion 0 785.86 116.74 88/212 4-6
153 Wildstyle 0 785.78 77.3 103/185 6-5
154 Liquid Hustle 0 778.23 62.63 124/181 6-9
155 Mississippi Blues 0 777.82 67.19 114/187 5-8
156 Heavy Flow 0 769.78 69.67 119/187 10-10
157 Fable 0 766.3 104.08 97/201 0-6
158 Peep Show 0 765.38 87.86 109/201 4-7
159 APEX 0 762.7 96.4 100/201 6-8
160 RIMIX 0 756.56 82.83 99/196 6-8
161 Spirit Fowl 0 743.06 68.23 115/190 7-10
162 DTX 0 738.83 76.53 115/201 9-11
163 OutKast 0 733.12 96.21 102/209 7-6
164 Absolute Zero 0 731.76 61.97 129/197 10-7
165 Philly Twist 0 715.62 56.09 137/200 4-14
166 Rainbow 0 713.03 65.71 116/196 8-12
167 Coalition Ultimate 0 710.42 78.03 112/197 8-6
168 Sabotage 0 704.02 95.12 116/207 2-5
169 North Coast 0 703.54 89.33 107/207 3-4
170 Hellbenders 0 680.43 63.78 139/199 4-8
171 ThunderCats 0 671.99 97.77 120/213 2-6
172 Fifth Element 0 663.81 71.87 137/204 5-11
173 Hairy Otter 0 663.13 84.49 123/212 4-3
174 Fear and Loathing 0 661.99 109.05 104/218 2-4
175 RnB 0 655.61 71.51 124/214 4-12
176 Heartbreakers 0 642.37 69.39 138/206 4-3
177 LORD 0 631.36 50.89 150/205 5-8
178 Oh My! 0 612.71 64.6 151/207 1-9
179 Bold City 0 611.2 45.88 155/203 3-3
180 Face Off 0 608.74 72.38 149/208 6-12
181 Spoiler Alert 0 601.76 78.36 135/215 5-15
182 The Strangers 0 601.43 89.16 141/214 3-2
183 AC Bandits 0 594.29 66.21 146/209 6-13
184 Unlimited Swipes 0 591.72 84.6 135/216 5-8
185 Great Minnesota Get Together 0 590.99 81.79 138/220 4-7
186 Fake Newport News 0 561.88 76.49 155/216 6-6
187 Freetail 0 542.52 94.71 145/218 4-2
188 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon 0 542.33 99.73 142/222 3-5
189 Jabba 0 539.45 56.77 163/214 4-12
190 Mousetrap 0 529.63 63.55 166/218 6-12
191 Spring Creek Ascension 0 529.22 75.01 156/219 2-4
192 Possum 0 526.4 91.98 149/219 2-5
193 Balloon 0 517.72 82.57 158/222 3-9
194 Bonfire 0 516.24 46.13 174/214 5-7
195 Sebastopol Orchard 0 510.91 100.03 153/226 4-8
196 Equinox 0 504.26 72.29 156/219 3-9
197 District Cocktails 0 486.1 80.34 161/223 4-8
198 Boomtown Pandas 0 484.03 70.75 158/220 6-11
199 Free Ride 0 483.64 66.97 171/225 5-12
200 DR 0 479.78 65.96 173/221 6-11
201 Second Wind 0 468.95 60.13 170/220 8-8
202 Big Bend 0 449 62.17 175/223 4-8
203 Pushovers-C 0 447.42 106.84 155/230 3-5
204 Mixed Results 0 442.39 91.02 162/225 4-10
205 Mixfits 0 439.18 78.4 169/223 2-4
206 Mud Turtles 0 406.64 77.6 179/226 3-9
207 Megalodon 0 400.77 66.56 181/226 4-7
208 Feral Cows 0 394.64 74.3 181/228 5-5
209 Carolina Reign 0 384.38 86.38 168/230 1-15
210 Old Rush 0 378.79 103.55 165/230 2-3
211 DTH 0 378.67 97.35 170/228 1-5
212 Stackcats 0 373.05 73.96 178/228 4-9
213 Magic City Mayhem 0 362.53 57.81 190/227 2-5
214 Rogue 0 354.65 95.69 165/229 1-5
215 Mixed Duluth 0 350.74 81.69 181/231 1-7
216 Mastodon 0 345.61 78.6 182/232 5-11
217 I-79 0 312.8 61.61 195/230 4-9
218 Baywatch 0 309.21 77.35 185/230 2-12
219 Chili Poppers 0 263.91 89.3 191/233 2-10
220 Bees 0 258.65 148.93 161/238 1-5
221 VU 0 255.78 92.54 185/235 2-10
222 Stormborn 0 242.43 82.14 195/234 2-16
223 Turnstyle 0 194.27 118.28 185/240 1-11
224 Springs Mixed Ulty Team 0 163.25 104.59 199/239 0-5
225 Dead Reckoning 0 159.52 115.77 182/239 1-5
226 Petey's Scallywags 0 155.95 90.49 204/240 5-10
227 rubber duck ultimate. 0 153.58 58.92 210/234 4-8
228 BLT Stacks 0 138.97 121.87 200/239 1-6
229 Pocket City Approach 0 118.76 118.47 195/240 3-5
230 Skyhawks 0 111.31 84.66 212/238 4-10
231 Sabers 0 -8.11 127.86 205/243 0-6
232 Mixchief 0 -19.83 142.03 203/242 0-11
233 EDM 0 -31 105.92 216/241 3-7
234 Strictly Bidness 0 -38.11 77.8 222/242 3-12
235 LudICRous 0 -53.44 217.73 181/243 1-5
236 Buffalo Brain Freeze 0 -83.66 242.58 152/243 0-6
237 SPACE INVADERS 0 -84.98 127.95 217/243 0-5
238 Hot Stix 0 -133.15 82.12 227/243 0-14
239 Memphis Hustle & Flow 0 -150.07 132.84 219/243 1-10
240 Mixed on the Rock 0 -274.4 124.66 227/243 0-12
241 Taco Cat 0 -296.57 119.88 231/243 1-12
242 Low Tide Scramblers 0 -314.82 300.06 161/243 0-5
243 Spidermonkeys 0 -412.26 180.28 224/243 1-7

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)