Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024-25 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.46 North Carolina 98.50%,   Virginia 45.00%,   Georgetown 2.30%,  
1 Great Lakes 1.74 Michigan 98.30%,   Notre Dame 75.50%,  
1 Metro East 0
2 New England 2.05 Tufts 100.00%,   Vermont 100.00%,   Northeastern 5.10%,  
1 North Central 1.12 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 11.60%,  
6 Northwest 6.26 Oregon 100.00%,   British Columbia 100.00%,   Washington 100.00%,   Utah 98.10%,   Victoria 89.50%,   Western Washington 73.60%,   Brigham Young 64.40%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.94 Pennsylvania 53.50%,   Ohio State 39.80%,   Ohio 0.30%,  
1 South Central 1.14 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 11.50%,   Missouri 2.30%,   Texas-Dallas 0.10%,  
1 Southeast 0.03 Georgia 2.30%,   Georgia Tech 0.20%,  
5 Southwest 5.28 Stanford 100.00%,   California-San Diego 100.00%,   California-Santa Cruz 99.80%,   Cal Poly-SLO 99.20%,   California-Santa Barbara 98.80%,   California-Davis 30.30%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.458 1.738 0.000 2.051 1.116 6.256 0.936 1.139 0.025 5.281
Autos (all @ 1) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 5.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 4.281
Northwest (@ 2) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 4.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 4.281
Southwest (@ 2) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 4.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 3.281
Northwest (@ 3) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 3.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 3.281
Southwest (@ 3) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 3.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 2.281
Northwest (@ 4) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 2.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 2.281
Southwest (@ 4) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 2.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 1.281
Northwest (@ 5) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 1.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 1.281
Southwest (@ 5) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 1.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 0.281
Northwest (@ 6) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 1.051 0.116 0.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 0.281
New England (@ 2) 0.458 0.738 -1.000 0.051 0.116 0.256 -0.064 0.139 -0.975 0.281
Total 1 1 1 2 1 6 1 1 1 5

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 British Columbia 1 2565.2 70.24 1/4 22-1
2 Carleton College 1 2563.52 132.33 1/18 23-2
3 Tufts 1 2486.95 99.16 1/9 25-0
4 Colorado 1 2327.97 85.73 1/13 23-4
5 Vermont 1 2286.29 101.14 1/17 21-5
6 Oregon 1 2219.89 64.81 3/17 16-8
7 Washington 1 2189.3 60.64 3/16 14-9
8 Stanford 1 2134.01 65.07 4/19 22-12
9 California-San Diego 1 2113.72 38.79 6/17 23-16
10 California-Santa Cruz 0.998 2043.77 45.98 7/22 18-12
11 Cal Poly-SLO 0.992 2079.87 68.39 5/23 26-12
12 California-Santa Barbara 0.988 2069.99 75.39 4/26 20-9
13 North Carolina 0.985 2118.27 93.99 3/24 25-5
14 Michigan 0.983 2110.35 103.68 3/27 20-4
15 Utah 0.981 2093.58 86.1 4/29 16-7
16 Victoria 0.895 1985.9 63.23 6/26 9-16
17 Notre Dame 0.755 1969.03 89.39 5/30 21-5
18 Western Washington 0.736 1966.62 101.53 5/34 13-11
19 Brigham Young 0.644 1930.43 59.37 10/33 9-10
20 Pennsylvania 0.535 1912.4 47.31 13/29 20-8
21 Virginia 0.45 1899.53 70.27 9/34 28-9
22 Ohio State 0.398 1891.53 80.29 8/39 22-8
23 California-Davis 0.303 1881.12 56.37 11/32 15-17
24 Minnesota 0.116 1821.36 74.34 13/49 16-7
25 Texas 0.115 1770.67 108.36 8/57 11-9
26 Northeastern 0.051 1799.41 63.13 15/45 16-12
27 Georgetown 0.023 1799.8 55.54 17/38 21-8
28 Missouri 0.023 1734.08 91.18 14/52 21-4
29 Georgia 0.023 1724.96 88.01 11/56 18-5
30 Ohio 0.003 1671.08 82.43 18/55 19-5
31 Georgia Tech 0.002 1650.8 83.05 20/59 23-7
32 Texas-Dallas 0.001 1561.64 103.09 17/71 9-9
33 UCLA 0 1718.34 55.58 21/43 21-23
34 Pittsburgh 0 1691.14 60.72 21/52 17-10
35 Cornell 0 1640.76 64.46 23/57 21-3
36 Wisconsin 0 1633.39 60.8 24/53 16-12
37 Haverford/Bryn Mawr 0 1618.48 75.57 24/58 22-7
38 William & Mary 0 1601.64 57.92 26/60 15-9
39 MIT 0 1587.6 49.88 27/57 12-10
40 Wesleyan 0 1586.83 91.08 18/64 20-3
41 California 0 1581.88 58.86 27/57 17-15
42 Southern California 0 1573.6 56.2 27/56 14-18
43 Whitman 0 1568.16 86.43 25/73 16-2
44 Duke 0 1564.4 66.74 27/65 23-9
45 Washington University 0 1563.11 67.83 24/64 18-7
46 Carleton College-Eclipse 0 1545.04 80.35 26/70 14-4
47 American 0 1541.57 71.7 27/65 21-11
48 Kenyon 0 1498.7 75.46 31/73 20-1
49 Liberty 0 1489 81.55 29/79 20-9
50 Middlebury 0 1481.55 70.59 30/72 20-2
51 Oregon State 0 1464.09 68.86 32/77 15-9
52 Maryland 0 1456.32 64.85 30/79 17-14
53 Colorado State 0 1455.89 66.9 30/80 3-15
54 St Olaf 0 1441.89 96.45 27/88 14-10
55 Rochester 0 1421.56 51.1 35/72 19-4
56 James Madison 0 1404.84 63.4 37/79 13-12
57 Davenport 0 1403.44 79.42 35/86 19-1
58 Central Florida 0 1396.52 81.76 34/87 14-7
59 South Carolina 0 1384.06 66.18 37/83 12-12
60 Brown 0 1351.12 39.73 51/79 13-14
61 Chicago 0 1343.7 86.52 39/95 16-9
62 British Columbia-B 0 1331.04 92.02 42/102 4-5
63 Connecticut 0 1319.26 57.67 47/86 17-9
64 Florida 0 1318.59 72.98 45/94 15-7
65 Lewis & Clark 0 1314.25 82.36 45/101 12-5
66 Illinois 0 1309.59 61.83 45/88 21-9
67 Santa Clara 0 1300.07 50.11 50/93 16-12
68 North Carolina State 0 1293.24 71.27 44/96 9-13
69 Montana 0 1278.97 106.36 37/111 7-4
70 Carnegie Mellon 0 1278.34 58.77 50/93 11-14
71 Union (Tennessee) 0 1271.09 69.88 47/101 11-1
72 Colorado College 0 1268.82 80.35 46/104 17-7
73 Purdue 0 1260.76 76.25 47/103 13-9
74 Penn State 0 1258.65 58.7 49/98 13-17
75 Portland 0 1223.97 69.89 53/108 13-11
76 Mount Holyoke 0 1222.52 47.91 60/97 12-5
77 Grand Canyon 0 1219.9 70.27 54/104 13-5
78 Columbia 0 1218.99 68.43 54/111 13-12
79 Appalachian State 0 1214.74 73.08 49/112 15-13
80 Case Western Reserve 0 1200.8 72.07 54/107 10-13
81 Tennessee 0 1196.68 64.34 55/107 21-8
82 California-Irvine 0 1194.75 47.59 62/105 23-12
83 Clemson 0 1163.38 73.4 57/116 12-6
84 Richmond 0 1148.6 67.61 59/119 12-5
85 Wellesley 0 1143.71 55.26 63/116 19-7
86 Vermont-B 0 1139.77 60.84 61/115 12-7
87 Michigan Tech 0 1135.42 63.56 59/113 12-7
88 Rice 0 1131.84 74.21 60/117 12-6
89 Williams 0 1118.59 54.74 69/120 20-8
90 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1116.18 60.63 69/118 18-8
91 Iowa State 0 1112.02 62.93 65/116 18-12
92 NYU 0 1111.44 72.01 61/130 16-8
93 Marquette 0 1094.28 96.08 57/127 8-6
94 Ithaca 0 1093.91 45.89 74/111 14-10
95 Arkansas 0 1093.15 87.26 63/137 7-6
96 Lehigh 0 1090.18 62 70/123 15-17
97 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 1086.22 76.21 59/128 13-9
98 Emory 0 1075.12 60.06 72/122 15-11
99 Macalester 0 1055.12 96.25 57/140 13-7
100 Virginia Tech 0 1048.67 53.75 77/125 6-16
101 Yale 0 1040.63 68.64 75/128 11-13
102 San Diego State 0 1039.72 53.4 78/126 15-12
103 Denver 0 1031.18 57.03 73/125 15-8
104 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1023.3 193.67 30/201 1-3
105 Temple 0 1021.02 64.63 78/129 5-16
106 Michigan State 0 1005.94 70.79 74/134 13-11
107 Kansas 0 1001.06 100.8 63/163 6-7
108 SUNY-Binghamton 0 970.01 60.65 86/135 14-14
109 Puget Sound 0 969.45 54 80/134 8-9
110 Arizona State 0 955.88 56.07 92/132 16-14
111 West Chester 0 950.96 65.33 81/137 4-16
112 Cedarville 0 947.19 47.33 91/133 13-8
113 Utah State 0 945.79 169.3 49/186 4-4
114 Northwestern 0 939.61 67.47 89/138 10-19
115 Swarthmore 0 939.18 54.79 91/136 13-11
116 Brown-B 0 937.51 79.09 80/144 11-6
117 Loyola-Chicago 0 929.71 87.85 68/154 12-11
118 California-San Diego-B 0 915.74 68.9 83/151 17-13
119 Cincinnati 0 911.96 57.71 97/141 12-12
120 Jacksonville State 0 886.38 48.97 98/144 9-8
121 Montana State 0 857.68 102.64 85/171 4-7
122 Georgia College 0 856.5 53.98 104/145 7-8
123 North Carolina-Wilmington 0 847.3 56 104/151 11-24
124 Winona State 0 845.74 56.37 102/148 14-11
125 Butler 0 845.61 82.88 95/165 7-5
126 Harvard 0 833.3 82 97/169 9-14
127 Iowa 0 826.85 92.93 90/177 12-10
128 Claremont 0 823.43 66.42 103/166 11-10
129 Northern Arizona 0 816.53 99.07 87/181 4-8
130 Grand Valley 0 815.26 64.53 106/168 9-13
131 Trinity 0 806.8 47.48 111/156 10-12
132 Massachusetts 0 798.11 86.21 103/176 9-12
133 Rutgers 0 792.55 63.71 110/164 13-15
134 George Washington 0 791.33 62.45 108/167 9-13
135 Stanford-B 0 745.35 120.13 92/187 1-5
136 Saint Louis 0 738.41 91.21 102/178 7-11
137 California-B 0 734.19 95.65 105/185 5-6
138 Catholic 0 734.05 65.86 105/170 6-11
139 Claremont-B 0 729.25 161.37 73/202 1-2
140 Knox 0 726.4 66.51 113/172 8-10
141 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 724.89 79.55 109/185 9-14
142 Boston University 0 723.49 88.61 107/181 7-14
143 Dartmouth 0 708.35 93.13 110/187 6-9
144 Davidson 0 704.69 52.84 124/172 11-8
145 Boston College 0 693.39 83.55 112/185 6-17
146 North Carolina-B 0 689.66 73.27 117/178 10-9
147 Tufts-B 0 681.86 84.07 116/187 2-3
148 Xavier 0 677.89 60.58 122/177 10-11
149 Berry 0 677.7 76.57 120/182 8-9
150 Georgia Southern 0 674.02 56.54 122/178 9-15
151 Bates 0 671.71 58.17 124/178 7-13
152 Charleston 0 665.23 65.51 122/186 8-17
153 Syracuse 0 663.31 53.1 123/177 10-15
154 Colby 0 659.76 75.18 115/186 4-10
155 SUNY-Geneseo 0 646.2 57.09 128/182 8-17
156 Alabama 0 641.31 92.06 115/195 7-7
157 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 636.05 73.48 123/185 7-14
158 East Carolina 0 626.11 84.17 113/190 5-6
159 Pacific Lutheran 0 619.92 69.01 126/188 5-10
160 Delaware 0 609.81 67.7 122/186 8-5
161 Miami (Florida) 0 609.35 47.11 135/182 16-15
162 Florida State 0 600.38 59.45 129/188 12-11
163 New Hampshire 0 581.82 50.05 138/186 8-20
164 RIT 0 581.71 121.86 118/208 2-7
165 Tulane 0 573.31 78.86 135/191 8-5
166 Nevada-Reno 0 563.48 87.59 126/201 5-12
167 George Mason 0 543.98 50.02 147/187 6-6
168 Arizona 0 537.6 55.49 143/195 6-14
169 Michigan-B 0 536.74 87.79 134/194 8-12
170 Occidental 0 534.79 83.04 125/194 5-6
171 Vermont-C 0 525.78 42.7 150/189 4-7
172 Skidmore 0 521.35 66.85 145/193 10-12
173 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 518.7 49.91 141/190 4-15
174 Missouri State 0 498.4 174.78 97/219 1-4
175 Colorado-B 0 497.88 95.65 129/201 3-12
176 Wake Forest 0 495.1 99.11 123/200 3-9
177 LSU 0 491.15 60.25 141/193 12-13
178 California-Davis-B 0 475.58 99.95 134/204 1-5
179 Colorado Mines 0 473.99 98.78 137/203 5-5
180 St Olaf-B 0 471.63 80.52 140/199 4-15
181 Minnesota-B 0 468.5 245.12 77/229 3-6
182 UCLA-B 0 468.07 58.52 147/195 10-13
183 Harding 0 457.52 153.03 104/219 3-4
184 Indiana 0 456.08 82.17 145/209 8-10
185 Oberlin 0 441.28 81.34 148/204 1-16
186 Truman State 0 436.94 62.36 157/203 8-17
187 Messiah 0 396.88 186.28 100/229 1-3
188 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 395.46 69.97 160/209 7-16
189 Texas A&M 0 350.14 91.11 142/215 3-8
190 Towson 0 302.25 128.6 145/229 4-8
191 Utah-B 0 296.01 152.05 119/229 0-11
192 Vanderbilt 0 281.56 70.77 169/222 9-17
193 Georgetown-B 0 274.99 80.21 173/221 6-7
194 Georgia-B 0 272.97 83.6 171/222 4-18
195 Dayton 0 269.87 106.33 167/227 4-8
196 Washington University-B 0 264.3 83.05 173/219 4-13
197 Texas State 0 244.01 12.4 192/207 0-2
198 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 229.91 144.73 149/229 2-15
199 Cal State-Long Beach 0 222.63 109.35 169/227 5-17
200 Florida Tech 0 217.36 79.05 169/224 5-12
201 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 214.54 105.73 171/227 1-5
202 Washington-B 0 210.82 149.22 145/230 2-8
203 Dickinson 0 205.4 100.92 167/227 3-13
204 South Carolina-B 0 188.14 104.85 176/227 4-9
205 Carleton College-C 0 180.92 134.31 162/229 2-4
206 Elon 0 165.37 88.14 184/227 1-9
207 Georgia Tech-B 0 164.45 189.25 138/231 1-5
208 Johns Hopkins 0 156.68 105.2 169/230 3-9
209 Northeastern-B 0 131.43 85.18 183/228 1-14
210 Auburn 0 125.37 76.25 188/227 3-17
211 Cornell-B 0 120.28 101.5 183/229 1-9
212 Miami (Ohio) 0 109.99 172.16 157/231 2-8
213 Florida-B 0 84.15 78.44 187/229 2-18
214 William & Mary-B 0 76.63 93.49 188/229 2-11
215 Connecticut College 0 75.33 131.78 177/231 0-9
216 Arizona-B 0 44.21 138.88 175/231 0-6
217 Columbia-B 0 40.29 115.08 184/231 1-9
218 Notre Dame-B 0 36.06 132.26 178/231 2-13
219 Pennsylvania-B 0 35.18 173.86 168/232 0-11
220 Wisconsin-B 0 27.96 90.85 192/230 0-10
221 Alabama-Birmingham 0 17.6 47.96 206/228 1-3
222 California-San Diego-C 0 -19.56 101.04 190/231 3-20
223 Lewis & Clark -B 0 -24.72 302.98 122/233 0-6
224 Colorado College-B 0 -38.44 133.65 187/232 0-10
225 American-B 0 -59.63 97.27 197/231 4-15
226 Northwestern-B 0 -89.58 184.78 140/233 0-9
227 Purdue-B 0 -109.71 107.35 200/233 1-17
228 Texas-B 0 -133.85 219.33 170/233 0-11
229 John Brown 0 -157.76 286.42 138/233 0-4
230 Emory-B 0 -313.57 206.75 186/233 0-17
231 Virginia-B 0 -408.72 275.33 140/233 0-12
232 Maryland-B 0 -442.98 158.5 218/233 0-3
233 Southern California-B 0 -557.53 199.18 212/233 0-7

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)