Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2024-25 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.03 North Carolina 100.00%,   Virginia 2.80%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.13 Michigan 13.40%,  
1 Metro East 0.04 Ottawa 3.60%,  
4 New England 4.1 Massachusetts 100.00%,   Northeastern 86.60%,   Brown 83.20%,   Vermont 71.20%,   Tufts 68.00%,   McGill 0.70%,  
1 North Central 1.02 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 1.90%,  
6 Northwest 6.04 Oregon 100.00%,   Washington 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   Oregon State 99.60%,   British Columbia 99.40%,   Western Washington 38.90%,   Utah Valley 37.40%,   Victoria 25.70%,   Utah State 1.60%,   Utah 1.40%,  
1 Ohio Valley 0.52 Penn State 48.00%,   Pittsburgh 4.40%,  
2 South Central 2.83 Colorado 100.00%,   Washington University 95.70%,   Texas 87.50%,  
1 Southeast 1.3 Georgia 78.70%,   Georgia Tech 50.30%,   Ave Maria 1.10%,  
2 Southwest 2.99 California-Santa Cruz 100.00%,   Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California 98.80%,   California-Santa Barbara 0.10%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.028 0.134 0.036 4.097 1.019 6.040 0.524 2.832 1.301 2.989
Autos (all @ 1) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 3.097 0.019 5.040 -0.476 1.832 0.301 1.989
Northwest (@ 2) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 3.097 0.019 4.040 -0.476 1.832 0.301 1.989
Northwest (@ 3) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 3.097 0.019 3.040 -0.476 1.832 0.301 1.989
New England (@ 2) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 2.097 0.019 3.040 -0.476 1.832 0.301 1.989
Northwest (@ 4) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 2.097 0.019 2.040 -0.476 1.832 0.301 1.989
New England (@ 3) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 1.097 0.019 2.040 -0.476 1.832 0.301 1.989
Northwest (@ 5) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 1.097 0.019 1.040 -0.476 1.832 0.301 1.989
Southwest (@ 2) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 1.097 0.019 1.040 -0.476 1.832 0.301 0.989
South Central (@ 2) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 1.097 0.019 1.040 -0.476 0.832 0.301 0.989
New England (@ 4) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 0.097 0.019 1.040 -0.476 0.832 0.301 0.989
Northwest (@ 6) 0.028 -0.866 -0.964 0.097 0.019 0.040 -0.476 0.832 0.301 0.989
Total 1 1 1 4 1 6 1 2 1 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Massachusetts 1 2416.67 44.88 1/8 20-4
2 Oregon 1 2385.23 73.17 1/15 29-4
3 Carleton College 1 2364.7 53.02 1/9 27-3
4 North Carolina 1 2359.83 41.41 1/7 33-3
5 Colorado 1 2358.91 66.55 1/12 25-4
6 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2267.97 44.25 1/12 33-6
7 Brigham Young 1 2246.17 61.09 1/20 21-2
8 Washington 1 2216.59 58.39 1/18 18-9
9 California-Santa Cruz 1 2185.14 42.37 5/17 27-9
10 Oregon State 0.996 2135.73 51.27 5/24 22-12
11 British Columbia 0.994 2151.93 56.41 5/23 16-7
12 California 0.988 2103.63 47.49 6/25 28-14
13 Washington University 0.957 2104.3 63.16 5/31 22-6
14 Texas 0.875 2065.09 59.21 7/34 24-8
15 Northeastern 0.866 2056.69 54.63 8/30 13-13
16 Brown 0.832 2055.26 62.93 7/37 18-9
17 Georgia 0.787 2038.84 49.68 9/34 22-10
18 Vermont 0.712 2028.48 53.4 9/41 10-15
19 Tufts 0.68 2030.53 68.53 5/39 15-7
20 Georgia Tech 0.503 1998.5 46.88 11/34 22-10
21 Penn State 0.48 1992.96 72.9 6/43 18-12
22 Western Washington 0.389 1988.28 41.9 12/36 15-11
23 Utah Valley 0.374 1968.86 95.83 7/62 11-5
24 Victoria 0.257 1958.85 72.73 9/49 15-11
25 Michigan 0.134 1927.18 67.44 12/52 17-6
26 Pittsburgh 0.044 1878.81 64.58 14/60 15-16
27 Ottawa 0.036 1872.88 70.41 14/69 17-1
28 Virginia 0.028 1882.08 60.71 9/52 20-10
29 Minnesota 0.019 1891.78 48.2 16/50 14-16
30 Utah State 0.016 1852.16 62.02 14/74 8-10
31 Utah 0.014 1840.15 70 11/69 14-11
32 Ave Maria 0.011 1815.95 83.77 14/83 19-1
33 McGill 0.007 1818.23 76.89 19/88 11-9
34 California-Santa Barbara 0.001 1861.88 34.46 21/49 19-21
35 Davenport 0 2059.59 78.67 5/38 25-1
36 Elon 0 1842.66 48.68 21/59 24-5
37 South Carolina 0 1834.21 44.74 22/62 22-7
38 Middlebury 0 1818.97 51.92 22/64 17-5
39 Cincinnati 0 1811.62 55.94 23/66 21-3
40 Lewis & Clark 0 1807.59 81.81 19/77 20-3
41 California-San Diego 0 1792.31 41.35 27/66 15-22
42 Colorado State 0 1784.76 60.14 22/80 11-16
43 Whitman 0 1783.61 81.06 17/82 11-4
44 Wisconsin 0 1777.22 62.91 22/72 21-12
45 Virginia Tech 0 1775.6 46.69 24/68 21-12
46 Stanford 0 1765.36 36.09 30/66 23-21
47 Emory 0 1755.99 47.4 26/71 18-16
48 North Carolina-Wilmington 0 1751.95 57.21 25/81 19-16
49 Chicago 0 1748.65 64.02 25/84 19-10
50 Tulane 0 1729.12 57.97 27/83 14-11
51 Cornell 0 1723.89 46.61 34/76 25-8
52 Purdue 0 1714.07 58.53 27/84 18-13
53 William & Mary 0 1710.3 52.07 33/91 24-13
54 UCLA 0 1704.08 47.35 34/82 15-19
55 Maryland 0 1695.07 51.87 35/87 22-7
56 Indiana 0 1678.9 50.05 31/97 20-9
57 Oklahoma Christian 0 1673.33 58.65 35/97 19-8
58 Illinois 0 1672.94 47.66 35/89 22-9
59 James Madison 0 1669.73 44.12 38/92 20-18
60 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1661.88 62.45 30/96 23-5
61 Michigan State 0 1658.64 48.96 40/90 22-8
62 North Carolina State 0 1651.33 53.59 36/98 17-18
63 Duke 0 1648.79 54.6 35/95 20-12
64 Georgetown 0 1645.71 58.52 37/110 16-15
65 Grand Canyon 0 1645.05 71.16 32/121 15-5
66 Auburn 0 1640.44 61.6 37/103 15-13
67 Franciscan 0 1638.25 49.95 40/96 19-4
68 Alabama-Huntsville 0 1629.91 50.94 39/98 13-12
69 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1618.97 65.37 39/110 13-17
70 Dartmouth 0 1618.5 68.25 33/104 13-12
71 Florida 0 1610.25 39 49/93 12-11
72 St Olaf 0 1606.39 56.92 39/109 26-9
73 Iowa State 0 1601.89 52.88 45/109 24-8
74 Temple 0 1600.01 53.58 38/104 18-14
75 Wesleyan 0 1599.36 94.59 35/148 16-6
76 Williams 0 1592.52 66.45 38/113 15-7
77 Ohio State 0 1588.07 54.47 45/114 17-17
78 Richmond 0 1582.46 56.06 48/118 16-11
79 Notre Dame 0 1571.71 56.64 49/116 15-14
80 Case Western Reserve 0 1562.39 51.39 53/123 20-10
81 Rochester 0 1555.12 69.15 38/126 16-5
82 Tennessee 0 1545.96 46.5 56/118 12-13
83 Simon Fraser 0 1542.33 125.22 25/184 6-4
84 Southern California 0 1519.35 53.59 54/129 20-13
85 Boston College 0 1516.2 65.25 53/134 11-8
86 Colorado-B 0 1509.79 72.04 50/136 19-6
87 Missouri S&T 0 1507.58 54.5 48/133 23-8
88 Carnegie Mellon 0 1506.57 52.46 62/134 16-13
89 Colorado College 0 1496.88 62.36 61/141 18-8
90 Texas A&M 0 1496.44 49.1 60/131 19-20
91 Cal Poly-CCWR 0 1493.01 83.51 45/163 4-1
92 Yale 0 1490.22 68.3 59/151 20-12
93 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 1487.63 54.98 62/139 22-12
94 Lehigh 0 1480.82 60.68 52/140 18-11
95 Bowdoin 0 1480.17 72.18 40/158 20-3
96 Missouri 0 1477.57 51.19 66/138 20-11
97 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1474.63 78.42 47/165 14-11
98 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1472.22 53.41 69/138 18-12
99 Syracuse 0 1468.46 60.31 54/155 20-17
100 Alabama 0 1465.6 47.08 73/134 22-16
101 Berry 0 1462.45 57.49 67/147 19-3
102 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1459.86 67.83 65/154 12-6
103 Marquette 0 1453.26 64 61/151 14-5
104 British Columbia -B 0 1451.5 41.68 78/130 11-11
105 Boston University 0 1449.66 65.9 67/157 15-8
106 Appalachian State 0 1449.49 56.22 62/161 18-19
107 Claremont 0 1444.82 106.41 41/195 10-4
108 Columbia 0 1443.45 52.7 71/147 19-10
109 San Diego State 0 1428.77 50.37 68/151 23-12
110 Iowa 0 1423.75 57.9 72/158 21-10
111 Vermont-B 0 1418.32 78.16 50/178 17-10
112 Liberty 0 1405.59 57.97 73/160 17-13
113 West Chester 0 1392.64 55.37 79/165 21-12
114 RIT 0 1384.22 46.7 84/157 19-15
115 Denver 0 1384.14 54.83 73/161 17-11
116 Mississippi State 0 1375.25 40.38 86/151 24-19
117 Colorado Mines 0 1372.65 51.65 85/163 15-9
118 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1367.2 59.42 86/180 14-8
119 Arizona State 0 1365.92 52.22 76/165 8-12
120 Northwestern 0 1363.35 40.53 85/164 10-15
121 Clemson 0 1361.6 53.46 91/170 17-12
122 Connecticut 0 1360.44 57.56 80/171 18-10
123 San Jose State 0 1358.94 38.68 94/157 20-13
124 Butler 0 1351.62 67.91 74/184 17-9
125 Central Florida 0 1346.48 46.53 89/163 13-15
126 Santa Clara 0 1341.61 45.21 82/178 9-13
127 LSU 0 1341.01 56.7 92/175 13-15
128 North Texas 0 1330.22 67.43 89/187 16-7
129 Kenyon 0 1329.6 62.38 83/186 16-8
130 Florida State 0 1327.53 51.86 94/172 13-21
131 Bates 0 1325.44 69.31 86/186 13-11
132 Maine 0 1324.57 73.7 79/192 9-6
133 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 1321.39 47.38 96/180 20-11
134 California-Irvine 0 1320.22 67.04 79/194 8-10
135 Wichita State 0 1314.24 111.68 62/242 3-1
136 Gonzaga 0 1313.2 55.09 92/188 6-10
137 Puget Sound 0 1305.31 49.96 101/182 12-10
138 George Mason 0 1304.92 49.2 97/182 13-13
139 Pittsburgh-B 0 1298.32 54.84 90/186 20-12
140 Davidson 0 1291.44 55.57 97/194 14-10
141 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1288.58 54.32 99/184 15-15
142 South Florida 0 1288.53 52.29 100/188 9-16
143 Oberlin 0 1284.8 60.11 100/192 18-8
144 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1283.61 57.19 88/183 8-18
145 Toronto 0 1280.11 62.76 87/194 7-14
146 Grand Valley 0 1279.74 34.85 110/174 14-12
147 Rutgers 0 1278.67 76.41 80/198 14-12
148 Macalester 0 1277.34 39.27 114/177 15-14
149 Lipscomb 0 1272.07 81.93 78/210 7-7
150 Rhode Island 0 1268.42 61.02 96/201 14-10
151 Kentucky 0 1265.58 53.02 103/189 12-11
152 Johns Hopkins 0 1256.34 61.32 107/207 14-17
153 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 1252.87 58.72 95/194 14-12
154 Brigham Young-B 0 1243.68 59.01 112/197 11-7
155 Washington-B 0 1240.2 61.62 109/203 10-6
156 Grinnell 0 1233.99 70.66 104/225 10-7
157 Kansas 0 1232.13 59.27 112/208 14-10
158 Ithaca 0 1230.7 69.35 99/207 17-11
159 Delaware 0 1230.36 52.4 114/198 14-11
160 Brandeis 0 1228.22 55.36 113/202 14-8
161 Truman State 0 1222.22 50.97 112/201 19-9
162 Massachusetts -B 0 1220.7 59.75 114/208 8-11
163 Dayton 0 1211.18 53.53 111/211 12-13
164 Montana State 0 1211.12 61.47 118/219 7-7
165 Pennsylvania 0 1209.59 56.36 113/207 12-18
166 Charleston 0 1207.88 82.2 94/224 9-9
167 Michigan Tech 0 1204 49.62 111/214 13-15
168 Messiah 0 1195.06 66.14 112/214 12-15
169 Alabama-Birmingham 0 1192.55 52.34 124/209 14-12
170 East Carolina 0 1184.39 48.11 128/205 16-22
171 California-Davis 0 1182.36 60.65 118/218 5-19
172 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1180.64 84.56 108/229 7-11
173 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 1180.4 61.97 113/212 15-7
174 Northern Iowa 0 1170.83 49.82 134/210 15-14
175 Ohio 0 1166.75 61.93 129/223 19-17
176 Dickinson 0 1166.25 58.69 128/214 10-18
177 American 0 1155.01 61.94 117/220 12-13
178 Carleton University 0 1153.19 86.29 110/235 4-9
179 Tarleton State 0 1148.38 96.86 98/259 12-5
180 Georgia State 0 1134.51 79.28 125/242 7-9
181 Union (Tennessee) 0 1129.2 45.67 150/218 12-12
182 Arizona 0 1120 53.42 143/229 12-8
183 Nebraska 0 1118.9 90.27 119/262 10-10
184 Georgia Tech-B 0 1117.81 76 123/240 9-3
185 Baylor 0 1107.7 64.51 132/236 14-10
186 Vanderbilt 0 1106.32 63.88 140/233 9-10
187 Oklahoma State 0 1100.4 54.32 134/226 16-12
188 Miami (Florida) 0 1088.75 66.2 132/237 10-6
189 John Brown 0 1085.63 59.38 137/239 9-11
190 Minnesota-B 0 1083.86 51.09 154/234 10-17
191 Kennesaw State 0 1082.65 50.97 144/231 6-17
192 Haverford 0 1078.47 68.84 144/243 18-12
193 North Carolina-B 0 1076.19 66.25 151/253 14-10
194 Occidental 0 1075.05 62.96 149/249 7-7
195 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 1064.82 70.46 149/250 11-12
196 Saint Louis 0 1060.04 57.54 155/243 7-19
197 Eastern Michigan 0 1059.12 82.52 105/270 9-8
198 North Carolina State-B 0 1055.73 64.42 150/248 14-7
199 Winona State 0 1045.92 61.28 158/251 14-9
200 Tufts-B 0 1042.31 102.38 124/279 10-7
201 Towson 0 1039.2 67.6 151/269 10-13
202 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 1034.01 82.15 142/262 7-11
203 Cedarville 0 1031.4 70.15 149/270 8-15
204 Penn State-B 0 1027.54 53.02 168/252 18-8
205 UCLA-B 0 1025.29 60.71 167/262 13-15
206 SUNY-Albany 0 1023.44 54.41 155/250 10-13
207 Vermont-C 0 1020.8 139.92 103/331 6-1
208 MIT 0 1020.68 48.78 171/250 11-11
209 Northeastern-B 0 1015.78 61.13 160/258 15-6
210 Cal Poly-Pomona 0 1015.56 66.1 146/258 4-13
211 Akron 0 1014.04 69.7 157/271 10-11
212 Miami (Ohio) 0 1011.72 61.56 150/255 14-10
213 Princeton 0 1009.83 58.97 157/256 9-12
214 Texas-B 0 1000.66 90.18 157/287 7-4
215 Christopher Newport 0 995.31 58.15 172/275 6-13
216 Wisconsin-B 0 989.96 81.93 143/283 12-13
217 Colby 0 982.72 80.3 160/282 8-10
218 Oregon-B 0 976.39 69.77 158/268 6-11
219 Arkansas 0 976.3 72.74 164/266 8-12
220 West Virginia 0 963.48 69.25 173/270 14-7
221 Michigan-B 0 961.98 56.02 180/275 11-16
222 Embry-Riddle 0 961.8 96.44 150/292 6-5
223 Ave Maria-B 0 957.47 102.84 131/307 3-2
224 Harvard 0 957.31 51.84 179/266 7-11
225 Air Force 0 942.02 50.71 191/272 4-14
226 George Washington 0 940.66 67.98 173/288 6-12
227 Georgia Southern 0 935.26 60.21 183/284 9-14
228 Skidmore 0 927 56.73 192/279 15-12
229 Virginia Commonwealth 0 926.66 57.57 178/272 2-15
230 Loyola Marymount 0 925.37 59.14 174/275 5-12
231 Illinois State 0 924.53 43.02 196/264 11-20
232 Wake Forest 0 919.66 72.94 183/291 8-16
233 Xavier 0 913.28 54.76 198/276 2-17
234 Grace 0 909.7 80.62 179/295 9-12
235 Kent State 0 906.75 55.87 191/281 7-15
236 College of New Jersey 0 902.61 86.33 171/306 10-7
237 Texas-Dallas 0 901.38 70.29 183/288 6-12
238 Oregon State-B 0 897.74 81.97 177/294 5-11
239 Connecticut College 0 889.56 82.8 173/297 11-6
240 NYU 0 888.02 81.69 182/304 6-16
241 Northern Arizona 0 885.56 61.03 191/289 5-9
242 Portland 0 883.73 57.48 200/284 8-12
243 Seattle 0 877.97 119.95 148/321 3-2
244 East Tennessee State 0 870.51 67.33 193/295 7-11
245 St Thomas 0 862.99 64.83 197/293 9-14
246 Santa Clara-B 0 861.57 50.93 195/287 1-2
247 Illinois-B 0 860.82 55.1 194/290 14-17
248 DePaul 0 857.03 54.19 212/295 4-11
249 Colorado State-B 0 844.48 66.36 188/313 7-15
250 Florida Tech 0 843.78 93.23 181/316 6-3
251 Toledo 0 837.21 73.73 196/306 6-11
252 Nevada-Reno 0 831.64 76.25 194/305 8-9
253 Brown-B 0 829 60.64 208/301 9-11
254 Georgia-B 0 822.37 78.3 187/313 5-8
255 Virginia Tech-B 0 821.24 63.34 204/302 8-10
256 Drexel 0 816.74 55.58 217/301 13-11
257 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 811.27 74.88 201/319 5-15
258 SUNY-Geneseo 0 809.64 59.81 219/300 10-15
259 Michigan State-B 0 808.12 85.73 191/326 9-6
260 Grand Canyon-B 0 807.39 89.81 189/329 2-4
261 Wooster 0 806.69 83.15 197/320 4-2
262 Oklahoma 0 805.29 45.65 226/301 9-14
263 Minnesota State-Mankato 0 803.78 118.73 162/335 8-4
264 St John's (Minnesota) 0 788.87 66.51 214/316 5-11
265 Texas Tech 0 788.22 32.83 239/291 7-8
266 Chico State 0 784.1 60.42 212/312 2-14
267 Salisbury 0 779.58 83.04 214/328 9-7
268 Jacksonville State 0 778.21 70.43 206/324 5-11
269 California-B 0 777.31 35.85 239/298 10-19
270 Texas-San Antonio 0 777.27 74.23 201/320 6-11
271 Worcester Polytechnic 0 763.99 68.73 214/324 8-10
272 Navy 0 763.93 63.51 220/312 1-14
273 Texas State 0 762.57 72.89 213/326 8-13
274 Harding 0 761.43 50.08 230/303 8-28
275 Southern California-B 0 753.46 68.06 208/328 6-6
276 North Florida 0 749.45 64.14 217/323 0-8
277 Carleton College-C 0 739.46 57.47 236/323 3-7
278 Montana 0 735.93 151 176/348 3-7
279 Mary Washington 0 734.64 93.62 204/343 2-8
280 Reed 0 731.28 84.4 215/325 6-11
281 Ball State 0 730.42 68.04 223/325 8-14
282 Trinity 0 728.63 59.77 230/324 7-13
283 Northeastern-C 0 728.13 61.4 232/317 14-10
284 Loyola-Chicago 0 717.04 76.89 217/331 8-15
285 Knox 0 710.94 99.5 215/336 6-10
286 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 700.36 74.13 229/334 3-11
287 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 687.76 44.74 239/316 3-12
288 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 0 681.61 88.34 214/339 2-9
289 Luther 0 680.62 66.44 207/337 8-10
290 Western Michigan 0 680.56 96.52 209/343 3-13
291 Tennessee Tech 0 671.79 82.21 236/332 1-11
292 Sam Houston 0 667.7 89.81 221/344 7-9
293 Bryant 0 666.18 166.4 160/375 3-1
294 Whitworth 0 656.96 121.43 205/359 3-6
295 Illinois-Chicago 0 646.69 105.27 216/349 3-9
296 Washington University-B 0 640.96 56.18 250/334 5-17
297 Swarthmore 0 637.35 110.21 229/358 5-4
298 Amherst 0 628.94 53.16 268/338 8-11
299 Rowan 0 628.76 77.07 244/346 12-15
300 Willamette 0 625.37 150.06 186/371 3-5
301 Pacific Lutheran 0 619.3 62.5 258/340 4-12
302 Arizona State-B 0 618.09 77.31 248/345 2-8
303 Minnesota-C 0 616.16 56.29 261/333 7-14
304 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 612.25 96.36 237/346 7-11
305 Mississippi 0 612.05 62.22 260/336 3-14
306 Mississippi State-B 0 603.09 53.48 272/339 5-12
307 Cincinnati -B 0 601.89 83.86 240/348 6-11
308 Kansas State 0 601.16 65.92 262/342 2-15
309 Rice 0 598.88 81.26 251/345 5-8
310 Samford 0 597.9 103.99 220/350 3-4
311 Central Connecticut State 0 597.71 51.49 273/338 9-15
312 Case Western Reserve-B 0 585.04 102.58 237/350 6-6
313 Cal State-Long Beach 0 582.29 113.82 228/367 1-14
314 SUNY-Cortland 0 581.81 63.19 263/342 4-17
315 Villanova 0 576.88 66.73 268/345 4-18
316 South Carolina-B 0 575.32 49.02 276/340 7-20
317 Hofstra 0 574.45 63.04 263/343 11-16
318 Texas A&M-B 0 572.98 59.24 269/343 5-12
319 Florida-B 0 566.66 84.44 247/354 5-5
320 Penn State-Behrend 0 562.13 72.51 265/349 3-5
321 Connecticut-B 0 558.9 58.32 278/343 13-13
322 Pennsylvania Western 0 556.96 105.37 241/355 6-11
323 Delaware-B 0 544.57 72.26 262/354 8-8
324 Rose-Hulman 0 542.77 71.84 269/349 5-19
325 Alabama-B 0 533.8 74.04 275/352 5-9
326 Stanford-B 0 532.96 73.24 275/354 0-5
327 Virginia-B 0 517.17 64.77 276/354 10-7
328 Chicago-B 0 503.85 73.84 275/351 2-3
329 Clemson-B 0 479.07 75.93 276/357 0-6
330 Wright State 0 470.23 68.78 289/355 4-19
331 Rensselaer Polytech 0 461.28 56.56 296/355 5-18
332 Bentley 0 458.17 119 244/374 2-7
333 Washington State 0 439.7 172.15 213/382 2-5
334 California-San Diego-B 0 436.28 64.11 295/360 4-13
335 Purdue-B 0 429.29 86.83 282/365 6-11
336 Army 0 417.21 62.43 308/362 2-9
337 Lehigh-B 0 413.51 73.36 289/367 5-8
338 Indiana-B 0 408.85 120.45 277/370 3-3
339 Dayton-B 0 403.57 88.14 299/367 2-4
340 Cornell-B 0 399.38 66.55 303/363 13-14
341 Georgia College 0 392.73 57.28 310/364 1-14
342 Colorado Mesa 0 391.52 109.93 271/369 3-8
343 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 373.95 76.88 297/372 4-9
344 Western New England 0 369 129.38 266/376 2-9
345 MIT-B 0 368.03 87.11 295/374 3-7
346 Boise State 0 346.35 149.31 249/380 1-10
347 Dallas 0 346.22 73 315/367 4-12
348 Northwestern-B 0 310.15 84.9 315/372 1-3
349 Nova Southeastern 0 298.19 45.54 332/369 2-3
350 LSU-B 0 292.13 64.84 324/368 0-4
351 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 288.4 179.27 263/388 0-5
352 Harvard-B 0 267.44 63.5 324/371 4-17
353 San Diego State-B 0 266.51 84.74 323/377 1-14
354 Denver-B 0 264.69 105.22 312/380 1-15
355 Portland State 0 258.56 153.28 272/384 1-15
356 James Madison-B 0 246.71 73 330/374 5-6
357 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 244.65 93.85 310/375 7-7
358 West Chester-B 0 226.64 76.4 333/378 7-17
359 Carthage 0 219.74 116.26 317/382 1-11
360 New Hampshire 0 202.59 172.87 285/386 1-10
361 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 195.2 158.22 254/385 1-5
362 Stevens Tech 0 187.46 83.71 330/378 7-13
363 Colorado Mines-B 0 156.13 219.69 261/390 0-6
364 Wisconsin-C 0 140.91 88.81 333/382 4-8
365 Tennessee-Chattanooga -B 0 138.31 177.02 287/386 0-7
366 Stephen F Austin 0 137.93 62.18 348/380 1-15
367 Maryland-B 0 121.6 62.38 351/378 7-17
368 Ohio-B 0 108.2 101.8 334/383 2-7
369 South Florida-B 0 102.31 99.65 332/382 0-15
370 Iowa-B 0 95.35 111.31 336/384 2-8
371 Middlebury-B 0 86 147.37 312/387 1-9
372 George Washington-B 0 26.88 87.38 347/384 10-13
373 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 17.81 77.21 354/385 4-11
374 Notre Dame-B 0 0.68 94.25 350/384 2-8
375 Georgetown-B 0 -6.03 130.43 343/387 6-5
376 William & Mary-B 0 -29.6 104.96 346/387 1-9
377 Dartmouth-B 0 -45.26 177.74 295/390 1-7
378 RIT-B 0 -55.09 37.1 367/383 2-4
379 Richmond-B 0 -103.61 166.12 340/389 1-2
380 Tufts-C 0 -161.06 257.25 295/390 0-4
381 Illinois-C 0 -182.31 127.96 363/389 2-7
382 Boston University-B 0 -210.09 173.03 346/390 0-9
383 Carnegie Mellon-B 0 -294.18 216.29 319/390 0-6
384 American-B 0 -300.59 145.57 354/390 1-16
385 Marquette-B 0 -302.97 200.42 335/390 1-4
386 Denison 0 -403.42 241.98 349/390 0-5
387 Siena 0 -412.4 123.58 374/390 0-11
388 Iowa State-B 0 -496.88 172.09 371/390 1-8
389 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -501.38 115.98 379/390 0-12
390 Grinnell-B 0 -621.88 435.69 276/390 0-3

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)