Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2023-24 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 2.679 0.001 0.000 4.272 1.839 3.248 2.142 2.105 2.085 1.629
Autos (all @ 1) 1.679 -0.999 -1.000 3.272 0.839 2.248 1.142 1.105 1.085 0.629
New England (@ 2) 1.679 -0.999 -1.000 2.272 0.839 2.248 1.142 1.105 1.085 0.629
New England (@ 3) 1.679 -0.999 -1.000 1.272 0.839 2.248 1.142 1.105 1.085 0.629
Northwest (@ 2) 1.679 -0.999 -1.000 1.272 0.839 1.248 1.142 1.105 1.085 0.629
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) 0.679 -0.999 -1.000 1.272 0.839 1.248 1.142 1.105 1.085 0.629
New England (@ 4) 0.679 -0.999 -1.000 0.272 0.839 1.248 1.142 1.105 1.085 0.629
Northwest (@ 3) 0.679 -0.999 -1.000 0.272 0.839 0.248 1.142 1.105 1.085 0.629
Ohio Valley (@ 2) 0.679 -0.999 -1.000 0.272 0.839 0.248 0.142 1.105 1.085 0.629
South Central (@ 2) 0.679 -0.999 -1.000 0.272 0.839 0.248 0.142 0.105 1.085 0.629
Southeast (@ 2) 0.679 -0.999 -1.000 0.272 0.839 0.248 0.142 0.105 0.085 0.629
North Central (@ 2) 0.679 -0.999 -1.000 0.272 -0.161 0.248 0.142 0.105 0.085 0.629
Total 2 1 1 4 2 3 2 2 2 1

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 North Carolina 1 2257.93 51.08 1/5 18-1
2 Georgia 1 2151.7 54.38 1/9 13-2
3 Massachusetts 1 2144.38 59.62 1/12 14-1
4 Colorado 1 2134.15 56.01 1/8 11-4
5 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2115.63 67.88 1/13 16-0
6 Oregon 1 1958.11 46.1 4/21 19-3
7 North Carolina State 1 1942.15 41.63 5/19 15-5
8 Penn State 1 1937.26 40.72 5/19 17-4
9 Pittsburgh 0.999 1958.84 60.36 3/27 9-4
10 Alabama-Huntsville 0.999 1948.74 54.56 3/22 10-4
11 Brown 0.997 1924.36 50.56 4/22 11-4
12 Vermont 0.996 1952.38 69.89 3/22 8-5
13 Brigham Young 0.969 1854.11 43.13 7/27 15-6
14 Texas 0.966 1862.76 51.04 4/32 13-6
15 McGill 0.96 1855.22 42.04 7/26 4-2
16 Carleton College 0.954 1875.53 58.12 4/32 8-6
17 Minnesota 0.878 1854.73 67.08 5/36 8-7
18 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.651 1796.38 53.65 7/33 14-6
19 Utah Valley 0.635 1807.22 121.01 2/58 18-2
20 California 0.459 1771.98 45.2 11/35 16-7
21 Oregon State 0.345 1723.75 145.06 2/85 11-5
22 Washington 0.274 1740.6 58.34 13/42 10-7
23 UCLA 0.17 1723.92 52.22 12/40 11-11
24 Tufts 0.16 1702.59 69.77 11/52 5-9
25 Northeastern 0.159 1726.75 52.32 10/43 7-6
26 Ohio State 0.143 1735.17 34.9 15/37 10-4
27 Washington University 0.115 1697.11 62.92 13/47 9-4
28 Georgia Tech 0.086 1677.86 74.63 10/53 9-6
29 South Carolina 0.028 1689.72 43.46 16/45 16-4
30 Texas A&M 0.024 1559.91 107.56 16/109 11-8
31 British Columbia 0.018 1664.41 52.44 17/47 11-5
32 Wisconsin 0.007 1603.94 68.44 17/64 7-5
33 Utah State 0.005 1626.57 56.72 20/53 5-10
34 Western Washington 0.002 1404.86 127.22 18/131 9-4
35 Michigan 0.001 1348.58 118.61 18/161 7-5
36 Colorado Mines 0 1753.36 100.27 6/62 11-1
37 Colorado-B 0 1678.48 89.98 9/58 8-4
38 Middlebury 0 1626.28 68.03 17/57 7-2
39 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1595.91 51.75 22/53 11-9
40 Utah 0 1589.69 42.09 26/52 8-8
41 Duke 0 1564.49 58.33 23/67 8-7
42 St Olaf 0 1544.41 125.24 10/111 10-1
43 Victoria 0 1534.21 65.05 22/71 5-11
44 Florida 0 1530.57 69.83 25/74 10-9
45 Williams 0 1520.53 74.44 23/86 14-0
46 Illinois 0 1507.8 56.57 30/79 14-3
47 Massachusetts -B 0 1501.22 65.85 26/79 12-1
48 Denver 0 1481.65 85.31 22/94 6-6
49 California-Santa Cruz 0 1476.68 46.43 36/68 9-12
50 Missouri 0 1470.08 86.04 26/106 12-6
51 Tulane 0 1464.93 47.03 33/84 11-6
52 California-San Diego 0 1463.5 46.41 34/79 6-14
53 Virginia 0 1459.94 70.69 29/102 6-8
54 Alabama 0 1454.41 84.58 24/100 7-6
55 Franciscan 0 1444.85 101.14 22/114 14-0
56 Temple 0 1425.72 52.91 35/88 12-3
57 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1421.67 97.43 25/119 9-3
58 Oklahoma Christian 0 1416.04 74.44 32/100 12-6
59 Auburn 0 1405.57 66.03 35/100 15-7
60 Whitman 0 1402.56 73.52 33/111 13-1
61 Ave Maria 0 1391.73 137.86 11/152 11-2
62 Virginia Tech 0 1386.94 53.81 40/95 5-9
63 Maryland 0 1375.26 75.98 33/123 10-4
64 Georgetown-B 0 1372.89 80.65 28/133 5-0
65 Colorado College 0 1368.94 72.76 36/134 7-6
66 Emory 0 1368.66 54.91 40/101 7-8
67 Purdue 0 1364.31 78.22 33/119 7-6
68 Georgetown 0 1353.24 82.99 34/132 5-7
69 Vermont-B 0 1352.2 44.74 45/98 12-2
70 James Madison 0 1351.32 50.66 45/101 11-10
71 California-Santa Barbara 0 1350.94 68.78 36/116 9-12
72 Central Florida 0 1350.68 80.57 35/120 12-9
73 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1340.82 63.91 43/108 19-6
74 Penn State-B 0 1340.26 68.88 40/124 9-1
75 William & Mary 0 1336.91 58.31 43/109 10-11
76 Minnesota-B 0 1325.51 153.99 19/178 3-2
77 Case Western Reserve 0 1324.02 94.47 34/137 8-5
78 Indiana 0 1323.13 63.68 44/116 11-9
79 Cincinnati 0 1320.47 88.67 37/134 5-9
80 Richmond 0 1310.82 53.31 49/123 9-5
81 Lewis & Clark 0 1295.76 83.46 43/143 12-2
82 Colorado State 0 1294.06 73.03 39/133 3-10
83 Chicago 0 1293.26 66.39 46/128 4-7
84 Kansas 0 1282.46 71.74 51/127 6-7
85 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1281.34 135.6 30/184 5-1
86 Carnegie Mellon 0 1278.32 56.81 53/118 10-3
87 Stanford 0 1263.61 71.44 45/137 7-14
88 Syracuse 0 1261.04 49.9 56/122 9-4
89 Arizona State 0 1235.47 82.36 43/148 5-3
90 Montana State 0 1234.63 125.83 30/178 1-4
91 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 1231.08 67.64 50/138 12-6
92 Appalachian State 0 1230.19 57.7 55/135 7-10
93 Tennessee 0 1226.89 60.23 59/138 3-15
94 Cornell 0 1219.48 83.27 53/167 5-8
95 Bowdoin 0 1217.59 70.31 54/143 5-2
96 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1215.05 108.46 45/162 5-1
97 Puget Sound 0 1214 100.31 38/170 8-0
98 Iowa 0 1207.25 95.85 36/178 10-2
99 Connecticut 0 1204.66 40.03 75/128 8-5
100 Army 0 1196.35 101.03 40/166 7-2
101 Florida State 0 1196.16 75.75 51/156 8-11
102 Notre Dame 0 1193.24 59.2 67/139 8-13
103 College of New Jersey 0 1191.17 75.7 58/163 6-1
104 Dartmouth 0 1189.58 58.16 67/141 4-7
105 Iowa State 0 1171 88.29 41/169 7-6
106 Connecticut College 0 1170.65 96.08 52/174 4-3
107 Grand Canyon 0 1166.84 73.45 65/162 3-9
108 Georgia State 0 1165.56 162.97 36/218 6-0
109 Berry 0 1164.32 77.81 58/154 7-6
110 Michigan Tech 0 1157.74 99.16 47/181 4-3
111 Cedarville 0 1157.15 75.29 62/166 4-2
112 Northwestern 0 1150.18 72.23 63/162 5-7
113 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1150.02 85.26 61/179 5-9
114 Elon 0 1145.18 44.68 81/143 10-3
115 Davidson 0 1142.22 62.03 73/151 10-8
116 Princeton 0 1141.09 50.24 79/149 8-4
117 Liberty 0 1134.25 67.81 72/158 8-4
118 Villanova 0 1106.28 109.69 48/202 9-1
119 George Washington-B 0 1105.27 77.96 54/176 4-2
120 Brigham Young-B 0 1099.65 100.98 63/186 5-8
121 Mississippi State 0 1099.45 86.34 76/180 12-8
122 Davenport 0 1098.88 87.64 64/180 6-5
123 Lehigh 0 1092.57 40.54 98/153 5-14
124 Arkansas 0 1091.24 81.16 70/189 3-4
125 Harvard 0 1090.59 82.92 67/204 2-11
126 Brown-B 0 1080.84 131.07 46/211 5-2
127 Tufts-B 0 1074.67 71.68 72/184 4-2
128 Oberlin 0 1065.64 83.3 79/191 6-7
129 Towson 0 1061.25 55.79 97/171 10-7
130 Southern California 0 1059.68 80.77 78/202 3-8
131 Vanderbilt 0 1054.92 78.72 89/186 3-9
132 LSU 0 1053.62 61.01 90/174 7-11
133 Tarleton State 0 1053.25 82.12 79/198 4-1
134 Pennsylvania 0 1051.2 83.76 79/193 6-8
135 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1050.14 110.82 49/209 4-3
136 Dayton 0 1048.04 96.5 60/192 11-3
137 Union (Tennessee) 0 1040.23 83.99 77/188 5-7
138 Kentucky 0 1039.79 170.28 39/241 6-0
139 Boston University 0 1027.74 67.55 95/187 5-8
140 Rhode Island 0 1023.64 92.07 71/200 3-5
141 Alabama-C 0 1018.98 125.39 51/241 6-0
142 Macalester 0 1004.56 85.91 83/200 5-7
143 San Jose State 0 1000.36 132.21 60/224 7-2
144 California-Irvine 0 999.84 78.02 84/204 3-9
145 Arizona 0 990.1 84.43 87/200 3-3
146 North Carolina-Asheville 0 989.01 99.59 79/221 5-2
147 Northern Arizona 0 981.28 57.22 105/187 6-7
148 Wesleyan 0 978.56 86.98 97/213 3-4
149 Gonzaga 0 967.12 141.86 55/235 5-1
150 Bates 0 966.12 62.05 117/195 4-2
151 Rochester 0 964.05 68.25 102/204 3-4
152 Yale 0 959.69 58.77 113/194 6-8
153 Delaware-B 0 950.3 77.63 104/216 2-3
154 Loyola Marymount 0 947.55 138.18 59/238 5-2
155 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 937.7 82.89 100/209 8-4
156 Truman State 0 937.18 78.17 106/237 7-6
157 Houston 0 935.07 115.9 85/219 5-1
158 Kennesaw State 0 931.12 63.51 115/198 3-10
159 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 927.09 51.72 130/201 9-10
160 Columbia 0 925.03 74.13 107/204 6-8
161 Pittsburgh-B 0 923.37 95.28 93/226 3-3
162 Xavier 0 922.05 81.02 103/226 8-6
163 UCLA-B 0 918.8 88.89 93/232 9-2
164 Washington State 0 916.95 72.15 105/213 14-5
165 Johns Hopkins-B 0 914.9 63.04 118/204 2-3
166 Navy 0 913.61 63.15 123/199 3-4
167 Johns Hopkins 0 908.39 63.46 119/210 6-7
168 Delaware 0 906.5 59.7 113/199 1-5
169 Miami (Florida) 0 904.3 235.74 25/292 4-2
170 West Chester 0 901.93 97.99 104/231 3-3
171 Bryant 0 886.36 93.87 107/228 2-5
172 RIT 0 885.32 78.07 114/219 3-9
173 Santa Clara 0 876.7 88.12 113/229 4-7
174 Rutgers 0 870.81 59.55 129/214 4-16
175 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 868.53 62.2 134/220 7-5
176 Clemson 0 867.34 59.7 133/212 10-4
177 SUNY-Albany 0 856.89 79.55 115/234 3-3
178 Miami (Ohio) 0 853.22 105.58 81/236 10-1
179 Georgia-B 0 846.71 135.57 64/262 4-2
180 Portland 0 842.68 65.12 129/225 11-6
181 Colby 0 840.79 53.91 140/220 8-5
182 Messiah 0 828.92 68.52 142/227 6-7
183 Texas-San Antonio 0 825.45 51.36 140/211 6-6
184 South Florida 0 821.2 58.17 145/219 7-13
185 Washington-B 0 820.51 72.59 137/225 7-3
186 Salisbury 0 817.19 159.89 88/283 5-1
187 Virginia Commonwealth 0 813.63 96.16 128/235 5-7
188 Claremont 0 808.52 99.11 122/251 6-4
189 East Carolina 0 804.72 86.41 116/238 7-5
190 Spring Hill 0 804.69 64.37 149/228 3-10
191 George Mason 0 792.79 162.34 77/280 3-3
192 California-Davis 0 776.29 58.6 149/228 9-5
193 Saint Louis 0 775.62 85.35 130/241 8-5
194 John Brown 0 770.66 97.72 130/251 4-2
195 California-B 0 761.15 74.94 142/236 9-4
196 Harding 0 757.41 72.37 148/248 7-10
197 Christopher Newport 0 756.93 67.32 153/235 2-5
198 Colorado-C 0 748.52 34.28 172/220 2-2
199 Connecticut-B 0 735.64 113.72 117/266 4-2
200 Alabama-Birmingham 0 733.1 61.27 160/242 12-10
201 NYU 0 729.03 45.42 170/229 3-10
202 Ohio 0 722.68 53.14 166/234 8-4
203 Sam Houston 0 717.47 102.84 130/265 3-4
204 Amherst 0 714.1 70.58 146/242 2-4
205 Central Connecticut State 0 712.13 144.85 115/272 4-1
206 Embry-Riddle 0 702.68 43.99 176/234 6-7
207 Grinnell 0 701.93 81.64 130/254 2-5
208 Kenyon 0 700.61 47.33 179/231 1-6
209 Dickinson 0 696.4 140.29 99/286 4-1
210 Missouri S&T 0 696.07 79.52 160/250 5-8
211 Ball State 0 680.1 91.63 149/265 4-3
212 Minnesota-C 0 657.94 61.99 174/249 0-5
213 San Diego State 0 648.47 62.05 183/245 6-7
214 North Texas 0 645.43 98.82 141/266 3-5
215 Montana 0 640.77 105.25 160/275 3-4
216 Mississippi State-C 0 632.86 64.94 182/264 4-2
217 American 0 631.87 80.78 173/263 2-10
218 George Washington 0 631.02 70.21 181/258 3-9
219 Brandeis 0 629.86 92.47 152/266 1-6
220 Oklahoma 0 629.43 76.7 179/261 5-4
221 American-B 0 621.65 77.87 180/263 0-5
222 Texas-B 0 619.67 121.49 149/290 5-5
223 Texas-Dallas 0 615.31 101.62 167/273 5-7
224 Haverford 0 611.79 64.28 178/255 1-5
225 SUNY-Geneseo 0 610.04 70.37 178/263 1-5
226 Mississippi State -B 0 608.1 51.53 191/255 8-12
227 Stevens Tech 0 601.87 92.47 173/274 6-6
228 Jacksonville State 0 590.29 65.01 178/255 5-8
229 Nebraska 0 577.95 105.16 159/270 3-3
230 West Virginia 0 576.41 67.24 189/264 5-8
231 Texas State 0 574.05 68.7 186/259 7-7
232 North Carolina-B 0 572.56 75.76 180/272 3-6
233 Rice 0 565.78 114.89 141/285 4-4
234 North Carolina State-B 0 565.18 164.94 115/298 2-3
235 Arizona State-B 0 556.74 197.07 79/309 1-5
236 Georgia Tech-B 0 552.13 58.67 195/265 10-10
237 Cincinnati -B 0 546.19 82.22 187/269 3-3
238 Mary Washington 0 531.18 99.79 173/278 0-6
239 Middlebury-B 0 523.38 109.23 186/293 2-4
240 Akron 0 521.52 124.15 146/294 3-2
241 Northern Iowa 0 517.01 99.93 187/297 3-3
242 Air Force 0 513.08 75.98 188/279 1-6
243 Rowan 0 506.44 64.53 202/270 2-12
244 Dartmouth-B 0 506.07 84.61 180/278 3-1
245 Bentley 0 505.59 94.94 193/285 2-4
246 Baylor 0 482.57 91.95 194/285 5-4
247 Skidmore 0 478.55 107.27 185/291 4-3
248 MIT 0 464 66.33 214/275 2-4
249 Wisconsin-B 0 459.98 65.54 217/279 4-8
250 Whitworth 0 455.82 50.17 223/279 8-10
251 Oklahoma State 0 453.06 77.96 206/281 3-9
252 Florida-B 0 439.61 116.96 180/298 7-5
253 Southern California-B 0 438.07 107.37 196/290 2-3
254 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 425.81 61.36 221/280 4-6
255 Butler 0 421.27 69.2 214/281 0-7
256 Pacific Lutheran 0 415.88 68.39 223/286 4-10
257 Denver-B 0 409.75 125.32 175/299 3-8
258 Reed 0 404.41 79.01 218/293 3-10
259 Drexel 0 392.02 87.25 213/292 2-10
260 St John's (Minnesota) 0 377.77 90.61 207/294 3-4
261 Carthage 0 370.79 118.98 184/296 3-3
262 Idaho 0 364.86 49.37 233/282 2-4
263 Trinity 0 364.44 104.8 208/300 4-9
264 Kansas-B 0 357.27 61.28 231/290 1-5
265 Florida Tech 0 341.39 80.28 218/295 8-3
266 Alabama-B 0 336.64 49.89 244/285 4-9
267 Western New England 0 336.34 125.73 206/304 0-6
268 Swarthmore 0 332.76 53.14 243/287 3-4
269 Edinboro 0 330.96 59.18 241/289 5-7
270 Colorado State-B 0 301.03 215.38 113/317 0-5
271 Texas A&M-B 0 299.84 150.61 189/309 1-5
272 Texas Tech 0 296.88 127.31 212/309 2-7
273 Nevada-Reno 0 283.87 198.65 151/316 1-6
274 Chico State 0 280.75 81.69 236/300 2-7
275 California-San Diego-B 0 256.38 90.25 241/303 1-4
276 Knox 0 250.98 124.69 206/309 1-6
277 South Carolina-B 0 249.15 61.96 250/304 4-9
278 Florida Gulf Coast 0 242.75 90.42 226/304 8-4
279 Michigan-B 0 234.27 139.84 219/311 0-4
280 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 229.5 167.86 198/314 1-4
281 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 221.44 70.72 251/301 1-4
282 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 211.21 62.52 257/301 4-11
283 Hofstra 0 199.91 104.6 238/312 0-5
284 Virginia-B 0 184.97 139.1 221/313 0-5
285 Wichita State 0 171.29 136.21 230/315 1-5
286 Wright State 0 162.43 74.93 247/306 4-7
287 Kent State 0 151.24 93.93 247/311 2-9
288 California-San Diego-C 0 149.87 63.3 263/303 0-5
289 Rutgers-B 0 145.61 117.85 233/312 2-5
290 SUNY-Albany-B 0 134.61 58.26 271/308 2-3
291 LSU-B 0 131.98 94.61 248/311 2-10
292 Carleton College-Karls-C 0 129.13 111.06 248/309 1-6
293 Florida Polytechnic University 0 107.95 134.33 246/314 4-2
294 Washington University-B 0 93.55 96.41 259/310 2-11
295 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 91.3 109.83 256/312 1-5
296 Portland State 0 78.13 141.95 232/316 2-11
297 Willamette 0 73.57 136.5 234/315 1-4
298 Illinois-B 0 49.81 125.7 246/315 2-4
299 Boise State 0 41.62 130.38 248/316 0-11
300 Coastal Carolina 0 40.17 76.9 276/311 0-7
301 Seattle 0 28.9 77.29 276/312 1-5
302 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 -6.63 117.1 255/314 2-13
303 Oregon State-B 0 -33.67 119.71 261/315 2-13
304 Notre Dame-B 0 -34.27 129.53 253/317 3-3
305 Lehigh-B 0 -73.48 127.47 249/320 0-6
306 North Florida 0 -95.85 124.3 275/319 3-9
307 Florida State-B 0 -126.32 91.12 284/316 3-9
308 Northwestern-B 0 -137.94 242.02 222/321 0-6
309 Case Western Reserve-B 0 -163.58 144.68 270/319 2-4
310 Ohio-B 0 -173.79 203.22 258/320 0-7
311 RIT-B 0 -263.33 199.64 237/320 0-4
312 Southern Mississippi 0 -266.69 105.59 296/320 0-13
313 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 -269.27 123.88 291/320 0-5
314 Wisconsin-Eau Claire-B 0 -278.87 159.26 276/320 0-6
315 Siena 0 -321.72 165.78 283/321 0-6
316 Dayton-B 0 -425.19 158.74 286/321 1-5
317 Denison 0 -443.21 236.61 243/321 1-5
318 Tulane-B 0 -447.33 360.39 222/321 0-6
319 South Florida-B 0 -531.55 139.99 304/321 2-9
320 Ave Maria-B 0 -610.95 131 310/321 1-5
321 Central Florida-B 0 -1067.9 296.43 308/321 0-6

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)