Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2022-23 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 3.058 0.481 0.001 3.737 2.100 3.299 1.503 2.029 0.606 3.186
Autos (all @ 1) 2.058 -0.519 -0.999 2.737 1.100 2.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 2.186
New England (@ 2) 2.058 -0.519 -0.999 1.737 1.100 2.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 2.186
Northwest (@ 2) 2.058 -0.519 -0.999 1.737 1.100 1.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 2.186
Southwest (@ 2) 2.058 -0.519 -0.999 1.737 1.100 1.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 1.186
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) 1.058 -0.519 -0.999 1.737 1.100 1.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 1.186
New England (@ 3) 1.058 -0.519 -0.999 0.737 1.100 1.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 1.186
Northwest (@ 3) 1.058 -0.519 -0.999 0.737 1.100 0.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 1.186
Southwest (@ 3) 1.058 -0.519 -0.999 0.737 1.100 0.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 0.186
North Central (@ 2) 1.058 -0.519 -0.999 0.737 0.100 0.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 0.186
Atlantic Coast (@ 3) 0.058 -0.519 -0.999 0.737 0.100 0.299 0.503 1.029 -0.394 0.186
South Central (@ 2) 0.058 -0.519 -0.999 0.737 0.100 0.299 0.503 0.029 -0.394 0.186
Total 3 1 1 3 2 3 1 2 1 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 Massachusetts 1 2220.24 58.52 1/4 15-0
2 North Carolina 1 2138.39 45.76 1/7 19-1
3 Brigham Young 1 2117.51 45.89 1/8 20-1
4 Texas 1 2021.51 70.4 1/16 17-5
5 Vermont 1 2010.71 63.55 1/16 10-5
6 Colorado 1 1992.4 29.25 3/10 18-5
7 Oregon 1 1968.08 47.1 2/14 19-4
8 Cal Poly-SLO 1 1932.95 42.37 3/17 20-3
9 Carleton College 0.997 1863.49 43.37 5/22 13-9
10 Tufts 0.994 1858.18 45.56 4/24 8-5
11 Minnesota 0.992 1888.56 55.92 4/26 10-5
12 California-Santa Cruz 0.983 1895.46 72.07 2/26 21-6
13 Pittsburgh 0.971 1867.72 69.66 4/28 9-6
14 UCLA 0.938 1830.83 57.45 6/30 15-8
15 North Carolina State 0.896 1805.28 50.98 6/30 13-7
16 South Carolina 0.777 1773.87 46.34 8/33 15-4
17 British Columbia 0.7 1777.02 63.54 6/37 9-5
18 Ohio State 0.53 1745.87 69.73 8/40 7-6
19 Brown 0.489 1746.16 59.44 9/40 9-6
20 Washington 0.468 1742.05 47.9 10/40 11-12
21 Michigan 0.462 1731.03 115.19 2/62 4-4
22 Georgia 0.459 1736.32 55.57 9/41 7-8
23 California 0.26 1693.11 69.08 10/44 14-8
24 North Carolina-Charlotte 0.206 1700.42 54.09 11/42 17-7
25 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.179 1694.13 63.52 7/48 14-4
26 Northeastern 0.17 1682.45 66.34 11/46 5-10
27 Georgia Tech 0.109 1672.79 59.48 11/50 14-8
28 McGill 0.083 1622.7 87.62 11/71 8-5
29 Wisconsin 0.072 1666.66 50.86 15/42 10-11
30 Victoria 0.07 1626.01 82.51 13/72 6-9
31 Iowa State 0.039 1529.03 112.01 11/98 11-0
32 Utah State 0.031 1650.7 45.33 14/48 11-10
33 Washington University 0.029 1609.29 66.35 14/68 9-3
34 Alabama-Huntsville 0.026 1576.17 91.85 8/83 14-2
35 Oregon State 0.018 1631.02 52.79 17/50 13-9
36 Indiana 0.016 1408.52 152.28 10/175 9-1
37 Utah Valley 0.01 1413.08 143.01 13/151 7-0
38 Florida 0.007 1541.54 80.69 16/82 13-8
39 Grand Canyon 0.005 1511.91 86.31 14/98 6-9
40 Vanderbilt 0.003 1446.42 117.58 14/128 3-2
41 Purdue 0.003 1334.71 149.01 18/171 1-5
42 Emory 0.002 1535.82 59.77 18/76 9-6
43 Utah 0.002 1406.45 120.99 10/131 6-4
44 Cincinnati 0.002 1380.22 120.15 17/161 9-4
45 Cornell 0.001 1453.75 89.06 19/98 7-6
46 Boston College 0.001 1015.75 215.19 19/289 2-2
47 Oklahoma Christian 0 1627.39 86.04 10/81 14-3
48 William & Mary 0 1535.44 48.9 25/68 12-5
49 Duke 0 1530.59 68.77 24/81 8-6
50 Penn State 0 1525.71 52.07 26/65 10-8
51 Colorado College 0 1489.81 87.62 18/95 12-5
52 Western Washington 0 1489.25 70.26 22/84 5-9
53 Bowdoin 0 1476.99 95.93 13/95 3-0
54 Rutgers 0 1461.46 89.89 22/102 6-4
55 Case Western Reserve 0 1455.38 59.43 29/88 14-12
56 Virginia 0 1443.6 75.98 23/105 8-10
57 James Madison 0 1437.21 44.32 34/89 11-7
58 Colorado State 0 1436.47 50.09 34/84 7-14
59 Appalachian State 0 1433.14 53.19 34/85 17-7
60 Michigan State 0 1429.95 76.53 29/99 4-0
61 Georgetown 0 1411.15 64.52 25/93 5-9
62 Auburn 0 1400.05 61.98 35/100 3-12
63 Maryland-B 0 1395 148.12 14/172 6-0
64 Missouri 0 1394.56 83.17 31/122 11-2
65 Harvard 0 1388.46 77.52 31/116 10-8
66 Northwestern 0 1387.69 76.18 33/120 10-10
67 California-San Diego 0 1379.59 48.36 39/99 7-14
68 Princeton 0 1374.33 77.67 22/121 11-1
69 Stanford 0 1372.5 56.05 41/107 5-14
70 Maryland 0 1370.03 48.89 38/95 11-8
71 Lehigh 0 1367.26 66.89 37/107 12-6
72 Middlebury 0 1360.12 70.72 38/126 12-5
73 Notre Dame 0 1355.69 62.61 38/109 12-8
74 Connecticut College 0 1351.59 88.44 34/116 12-2
75 RIT 0 1350.15 53.32 43/99 8-5
76 Binghamton 0 1318.61 45.51 50/104 11-8
77 Richmond 0 1312 49.12 48/108 7-6
78 James Madison-B 0 1310.69 136.97 16/173 4-2
79 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1305.41 62.99 47/120 9-3
80 Navy 0 1299.22 94.01 31/135 6-1
81 Lewis & Clark 0 1290.5 58.27 44/114 9-4
82 Texas A&M 0 1284.65 66.51 45/132 12-12
83 Santa Clara 0 1275.93 66.33 49/133 11-5
84 California-Santa Barbara 0 1275.26 54.63 54/129 3-17
85 Delaware 0 1272.96 72.44 43/137 5-5
86 Alabama 0 1272.18 71.98 48/140 12-6
87 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1265.17 94.61 32/149 12-5
88 Grinnell 0 1264.36 123.96 28/169 5-1
89 Mississippi State 0 1260.75 61.22 47/128 20-8
90 St. Olaf 0 1254.47 97.74 33/158 14-3
91 Central Florida 0 1246.55 61.14 49/134 14-14
92 Virginia Tech 0 1245.75 64.94 51/146 6-8
93 Oberlin 0 1245.71 82.74 44/150 9-2
94 Vermont-B 0 1241.57 73.09 48/141 12-3
95 Arkansas 0 1241.06 68.13 53/136 10-2
96 Tulane 0 1218.84 69.1 55/149 8-5
97 Chicago 0 1214.71 45.96 68/133 10-8
98 Whitman 0 1209.47 113.2 35/173 3-3
99 Miami (Ohio) 0 1209.25 123.37 41/206 5-1
100 Western Michigan 0 1204.66 56.4 64/134 3-1
101 Massachusetts-B 0 1201.06 67.8 58/151 12-2
102 Temple 0 1197.41 108.72 39/192 11-11
103 California-Davis 0 1194.58 76.49 55/154 15-3
104 Liberty 0 1189.56 111.95 36/178 7-4
105 Missouri S&T 0 1175.86 53.1 66/141 10-4
106 Iowa 0 1172.92 54.96 72/143 13-7
107 Kennesaw State 0 1172.36 74.86 60/165 8-3
108 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1167.03 89.38 50/169 11-2
109 Florida State 0 1160.45 58.14 65/161 8-14
110 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1157.05 102.22 42/175 9-3
111 Tennessee 0 1145.82 65.51 70/154 5-13
112 Dartmouth 0 1141.67 84.93 57/187 1-6
113 Southern California 0 1131.56 66.01 73/172 1-10
114 John Brown 0 1128.33 68.38 64/180 7-3
115 Illinois 0 1124.34 77.41 53/171 4-10
116 Clemson 0 1120.39 92.7 66/208 4-3
117 Washington-B 0 1114.47 72.27 69/172 9-3
118 California-Irvine 0 1111.74 50.71 85/153 7-1
119 Kenyon 0 1111.25 70.64 76/172 9-2
120 Georgia State 0 1110.57 71.99 69/173 4-10
121 Williams 0 1093.04 99.17 58/196 9-4
122 Rochester 0 1090.53 65.77 81/179 8-5
123 Dayton 0 1086.9 167.3 43/247 7-1
124 Saint Louis 0 1086.89 69.66 81/176 6-5
125 Carnegie Mellon 0 1082.27 57.5 90/193 4-12
126 Colorado Mines 0 1073.1 81.17 74/194 8-2
127 Arizona State 0 1064.85 95.17 68/229 1-5
128 Marquette 0 1063.86 86.1 78/188 2-3
129 Elon 0 1062.54 79.32 74/201 9-3
130 Connecticut 0 1046.34 74.53 87/197 1-11
131 William & Mary-B 0 1043.68 124.65 57/226 3-4
132 Washington State 0 1043.09 69.84 91/195 12-3
133 East Carolina 0 1042.77 74.26 81/202 5-1
134 Gonzaga 0 1041.13 90.5 65/228 4-1
135 Messiah 0 1040.19 94.91 74/201 2-5
136 Davidson 0 1037.47 87.76 81/210 6-4
137 Occidental 0 1027.59 92.71 80/215 10-3
138 Boston University 0 1021.33 62.61 98/185 3-3
139 Truman State 0 1019.69 130.6 53/238 2-3
140 Pacific Lutheran 0 1017.22 53.6 105/181 4-1
141 Brigham Young-B 0 1016.99 107.65 64/235 5-2
142 Wesleyan 0 1014.46 70.58 93/193 3-3
143 Portland State 0 1009.12 60.6 91/193 7-5
144 Union (Tennessee) 0 1008.07 109.39 59/217 3-1
145 LSU 0 1006.58 45.45 112/184 15-13
146 Carleton College-CHOP 0 993.41 36.44 115/176 12-12
147 Virginia Commonwealth 0 986.71 80.87 83/203 5-6
148 Franciscan 0 981 53.25 109/193 6-6
149 Northern Arizona 0 978.92 86.14 86/207 3-2
150 Colorado-B 0 973.15 60.34 108/199 10-7
151 Wichita State 0 972.75 82.04 94/222 4-3
152 Columbia 0 968.67 58.46 104/192 6-5
153 Towson 0 962.32 102.79 64/231 3-3
154 Kansas 0 961.07 90.15 99/219 7-5
155 Johns Hopkins 0 957.59 56.24 112/197 7-10
156 Army 0 956.56 95.89 85/224 5-4
157 Minnesota-Duluth 0 946.98 94.37 89/235 5-7
158 George Washington 0 946.65 68.72 110/205 4-9
159 Cedarville 0 938.19 70.86 112/204 7-3
160 Claremont 0 934.88 55.45 117/199 5-2
161 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 933.51 67.39 113/210 14-5
162 NYU 0 931.35 96.7 90/235 7-5
163 Ithaca 0 928.89 120.64 85/267 6-5
164 Carthage 0 924.94 76.69 105/225 9-3
165 Bates 0 924.1 69.81 110/217 10-6
166 Rowan 0 920.56 94.61 97/229 9-2
167 California-San Diego-B 0 919.48 76.43 104/219 9-4
168 Michigan Tech 0 916.3 90.06 99/233 5-2
169 Tufts-B 0 914.62 59.51 119/210 8-5
170 College of New Jersey 0 904.07 51.82 133/204 3-1
171 Yale 0 896.92 159.25 63/300 5-3
172 SUNY-Cortland 0 896.63 62.88 122/218 7-9
173 Puget Sound 0 891.2 66.94 121/220 6-6
174 Sam Houston 0 881.06 125.25 85/253 3-4
175 Butler 0 877.06 69.08 115/222 6-7
176 Nebraska 0 875.99 134.42 64/275 5-2
177 Rice 0 875.69 50.88 137/220 8-7
178 SUNY-Geneseo 0 874.32 63.58 124/220 1-4
179 Penn State-B 0 866.07 72.22 118/243 8-8
180 West Virginia 0 863.98 99.05 100/252 10-5
181 Brandeis 0 857.85 78.33 125/234 3-8
182 MIT 0 844.59 89.87 118/255 8-4
183 San Diego State 0 843.93 64.01 130/224 11-5
184 Oregon-B 0 836.9 97.06 105/261 0-2
185 Wright State 0 833.74 101.66 114/247 3-4
186 American 0 828.1 69.92 131/234 4-7
187 Berry 0 823.93 88.63 118/246 4-8
188 Texas State 0 821.94 80.97 126/237 6-6
189 Maine 0 814.14 60.75 134/231 0-6
190 Nevada-Reno 0 808.95 87.93 119/249 5-5
191 Rhode Island 0 804.06 64.03 142/233 4-3
192 Denver 0 799.6 92.47 108/265 3-6
193 North Texas 0 796.77 84.12 126/257 6-8
194 Luther 0 796.21 68.83 133/247 12-7
195 Bentley 0 795.46 90.78 123/267 1-3
196 West Chester 0 784.89 118.34 93/300 4-4
197 Pittsburgh-B 0 781.66 190.27 44/324 5-2
198 Montana State 0 776.5 143.55 100/300 1-2
199 Colgate 0 771.68 94.54 133/252 1-1
200 George Washington-B 0 768.56 88 126/258 2-4
201 Minnesota-B 0 764.94 91.32 117/265 7-8
202 Syracuse 0 758.52 57.1 152/244 3-9
203 Amherst 0 755.98 57.75 160/252 7-6
204 Macalester 0 755.78 116.61 116/276 5-2
205 Loyola Marymount 0 754.98 102.91 122/278 5-4
206 Shippensburg 0 747.16 84.08 148/253 0-3
207 Illinois State 0 745.95 61.73 164/248 10-10
208 Northeastern-B 0 737.94 86.09 147/265 5-7
209 Wooster 0 734.8 88.42 131/270 1-6
210 Christopher Newport 0 731.98 62.9 168/256 6-5
211 San Jose State 0 727.71 79.3 147/277 8-3
212 North Carolina-B 0 725.25 79.64 154/261 3-7
213 South Florida 0 723.38 75.79 162/269 1-13
214 Michigan State-B 0 718.42 108.31 136/276 1-3
215 Alabama-Birmingham 0 713.34 44.83 183/241 11-11
216 Georgia-B 0 710.19 125.48 132/305 2-4
217 Grace 0 709.43 72.54 162/264 8-3
218 Reed 0 691.48 130.74 128/299 3-2
219 Tulane-B 0 688.22 71.64 172/263 4-3
220 Toledo 0 686.15 123.75 108/305 5-2
221 Stevens Tech 0 673.75 94.59 159/280 7-5
222 Texas-Dallas 0 672.6 74.85 151/271 6-8
223 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 665.33 67.74 185/267 4-5
224 Villanova 0 658.02 96.45 153/283 1-5
225 Boise State 0 657.78 95.12 162/284 6-5
226 Seattle 0 651.76 88.81 147/287 3-3
227 Colby 0 649.56 87.72 158/284 4-2
228 Baylor 0 634.31 94.4 152/285 3-4
229 Florida-B 0 632.88 100.89 151/297 7-6
230 Temple-B 0 616.21 92.89 170/287 11-4
231 Arizona 0 609.44 74.28 182/293 1-5
232 Cal State-Long Beach 0 608.2 98.05 164/297 3-7
233 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 601.96 111.57 158/302 3-6
234 Spring Hill 0 601.62 72.64 171/290 4-9
235 Brown-B 0 599.1 72.3 192/285 2-3
236 Samford 0 597.91 89.81 175/295 2-4
237 Willamette University 0 597.44 70.87 188/285 2-4
238 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 592.58 106.72 177/314 4-7
239 North Park 0 586.99 75.8 185/295 4-2
240 Dickinson 0 583.25 83.37 184/291 6-4
241 Jacksonville State 0 582.54 51.58 201/278 7-11
242 Ohio 0 580.97 120.39 159/322 2-4
243 Drexel 0 570.94 77.63 179/288 5-20
244 Haverford 0 570.07 72.21 199/293 4-5
245 Chico State 0 548.94 55.18 206/284 5-6
246 Georgia College 0 547.43 101.75 187/307 3-6
247 Montana 0 545.38 108.35 175/313 3-6
248 Xavier 0 543.78 51.2 213/284 7-12
249 Air Force 0 541.15 94.36 170/307 1-6
250 Alabama-B 0 531.97 51.17 207/284 10-15
251 Texas-B 0 529.89 54.45 214/291 5-9
252 Wentworth 0 520.97 91.08 190/300 0-4
253 Southern California-B 0 514.62 133.84 152/323 3-3
254 Arizona State-B 0 514.29 146.49 159/324 2-4
255 Pennsylvania 0 510.29 97.3 177/307 5-7
256 SUNY-Albany 0 509.3 75.57 209/301 1-5
257 Northern Iowa 0 508.6 68.11 204/300 3-3
258 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 508.59 57.66 217/291 6-7
259 DePaul 0 499.38 95.22 194/314 3-3
260 Oregon State-B 0 498.35 87.96 193/309 3-7
261 Humboldt State 0 496.06 106.89 180/328 2-9
262 Georgia Southern 0 492.01 61.51 216/296 4-15
263 South Carolina-B 0 475.5 111.12 191/322 2-3
264 Wheaton (Illinois) 0 473.67 49.62 224/289 2-3
265 Harding 0 472.65 67.42 211/308 10-10
266 California-B 0 472.07 129.87 169/325 1-4
267 Oklahoma State 0 467.69 71.18 203/301 3-13
268 Southern Mississippi 0 465.72 108.97 185/325 2-6
269 Texas-San Antonio 0 463.36 143.52 182/329 1-4
270 Wake Forest 0 461.56 55.56 221/301 3-8
271 Illinois-B 0 456.04 113.28 188/323 2-4
272 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 449.78 80.14 212/308 2-4
273 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 437.69 124.31 168/329 1-5
274 UCLA-B 0 434.71 69.7 215/308 6-7
275 North Carolina State-B 0 432.52 79 219/317 1-4
276 Swarthmore 0 422.19 61.23 228/302 2-7
277 Loyola-Chicago 0 414.87 72.8 228/314 6-4
278 Texas A&M-B 0 407.6 89.08 210/323 5-8
279 Georgia Tech-B 0 401.52 54.3 242/305 3-8
280 California-Davis-B 0 386.89 82.25 230/324 3-7
281 Akron 0 372.76 96.57 219/327 3-3
282 Memphis 0 371.92 131.81 186/333 2-4
283 Kent State 0 356.09 99.91 220/328 2-4
284 Miami (Florida) 0 353.74 120.16 219/335 2-5
285 Skidmore 0 352.59 30.85 267/306 1-2
286 Oklahoma 0 349.76 120.4 193/335 1-9
287 Carleton College-Karls 0 343.1 103.48 222/336 1-5
288 Ball State 0 339.11 79.38 232/322 3-4
289 Michigan-B 0 332.95 100.31 218/332 1-4
290 Portland 0 330.1 69.62 249/321 2-10
291 Colorado State-B 0 315.8 192.97 165/344 1-3
292 Charleston 0 313.91 109.42 195/334 0-4
293 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 311.95 65.11 251/319 3-13
294 Vermont-C 0 310.21 224.89 125/350 3-2
295 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 306.77 78.12 246/328 2-7
296 Wisconsin-B 0 294.74 67.24 260/325 4-8
297 Winona State 0 291.59 115.71 215/339 1-8
298 Rensselaer Polytech 0 289.98 79.43 251/336 3-1
299 Grand Canyon-B 0 259.78 122.29 230/342 1-4
300 Houston 0 259.54 58.38 272/324 3-8
301 Western New England 0 245.25 69.62 261/330 1-4
302 Washington University-B 0 244.81 128.33 212/340 1-5
303 High Point 0 244.81 191.15 191/345 0-3
304 Mississippi State-B 0 244.58 77.69 261/332 4-15
305 Connecticut-B 0 235.77 75.82 257/332 5-6
306 Whitworth 0 218.04 59.43 273/331 3-8
307 Virginia-B 0 196.99 137.34 232/345 1-5
308 Salisbury 0 191.03 72.6 272/335 0-6
309 San Diego State-B 0 187.73 184.06 194/346 1-4
310 Northwestern-B 0 184.05 138.25 232/346 0-6
311 Hofstra 0 182.77 72.21 280/335 1-10
312 Rutgers-B 0 176.84 55.15 289/335 4-5
313 SUNY-Stony Brook-B 0 166.9 78.22 279/335 0-6
314 North Carolina-Asheville 0 166.85 152.3 231/348 0-5
315 Purdue-B 0 155.74 116.63 260/347 1-5
316 Dartmouth-B 0 150.03 98.61 271/342 4-2
317 Kansas State 0 141.42 106.47 257/344 1-6
318 Muhlenberg 0 140.34 116.4 261/345 3-3
319 Minnesota-C 0 126.6 94.1 278/341 2-9
320 Pacific Lutheran-B 0 114.01 231.31 195/351 0-2
321 Caltech 0 109.93 176.86 219/348 1-4
322 Knox 0 106.06 189.67 202/350 1-4
323 Case Western Reserve-B 0 94 130.25 250/346 1-5
324 Harvard-B 0 85.19 83.4 287/344 1-11
325 Texas Tech 0 84.21 123.42 270/347 1-10
326 Stanford-B 0 83.17 92.95 280/345 2-11
327 Idaho 0 78.82 99.1 271/344 0-9
328 California-San Diego-C 0 71.43 135.92 238/348 2-10
329 Denver-B 0 68.41 140.4 258/349 1-9
330 Mary Washington 0 47.03 146.83 242/350 1-5
331 Trinity 0 43.34 127.61 265/348 2-8
332 West Chester-B 0 17.03 231.51 191/352 1-4
333 Iowa State-B 0 13.16 88.1 299/346 2-9
334 Mississippi 0 -58.64 193.68 247/351 0-7
335 Northeastern-C 0 -67.05 102.15 306/348 0-6
336 Santa Clara-B 0 -67.72 183.34 258/351 0-6
337 Edinboro 0 -87.7 50.19 319/347 2-3
338 Grinnell-B 0 -101.85 194.15 252/352 1-5
339 Mississippi College 0 -103.1 84.8 313/350 0-11
340 North Florida 0 -107.99 161.99 275/351 0-7
341 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -120.43 64.67 315/348 1-4
342 Cornell-B 0 -147.49 158.32 287/353 1-4
343 Messiah 0 -172.89 90.2 315/349 2-4
344 Iowa-B 0 -177.2 131.59 290/351 1-5
345 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 -272.77 168.43 284/352 0-6
346 Butler-B 0 -279.91 125.55 325/352 1-10
347 Lehigh-B 0 -286.32 44.27 338/351 1-7
348 Siena 0 -300.78 210.43 280/353 0-5
349 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 0 -423.87 272.2 240/353 0-6
350 Southern Connecticut State 0 -543.63 221.89 309/353 0-4
351 Pennsylvania-B 0 -652.26 107.06 346/353 2-8
352 Delaware-B 0 -803.63 285.63 319/353 1-5
353 SUNY-Fredonia 0 -1041.93 445.44 275/353 0-6

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)