Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2022-23 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Atlantic Coast 1.95 North Carolina 100.00%,   North Carolina State 56.50%,   North Carolina-Charlotte 22.40%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 12.30%,   South Carolina 2.50%,   Duke 0.90%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.07 Purdue 3.90%,   Michigan 2.70%,   Indiana 0.10%,  
1 Metro East 0.21 Ottawa 20.60%,  
4 New England 4.24 Massachusetts 100.00%,   Vermont 100.00%,   Tufts 99.10%,   Brown 98.50%,   Northeastern 24.50%,   McGill 1.60%,   Boston College 0.10%,  
2 North Central 2.15 Minnesota 99.90%,   Carleton College 99.40%,   Wisconsin 16.00%,  
3 Northwest 3.75 Oregon 100.00%,   Brigham Young 100.00%,   Washington 85.50%,   British Columbia 81.70%,   Utah Valley 4.40%,   Utah State 3.00%,   Oregon State 0.70%,  
1 Ohio Valley 1.06 Pittsburgh 100.00%,   Ohio State 5.70%,   Penn State 0.70%,  
2 South Central 2.34 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 100.00%,   Washington University 28.50%,   Missouri 5.80%,  
1 Southeast 0.72 Georgia 57.00%,   Georgia Tech 13.90%,   Florida 0.60%,   Alabama-Huntsville 0.30%,  
3 Southwest 3.51 Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California-Santa Cruz 98.20%,   UCLA 91.50%,   California 61.20%,   Grand Canyon 0.30%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.946 0.067 0.206 4.238 2.153 3.753 1.064 2.343 0.718 3.512
Autos (all @ 1) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 3.238 1.153 2.753 0.064 1.343 -0.282 2.512
New England (@ 2) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 2.238 1.153 2.753 0.064 1.343 -0.282 2.512
Northwest (@ 2) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 2.238 1.153 1.753 0.064 1.343 -0.282 2.512
Southwest (@ 2) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 2.238 1.153 1.753 0.064 1.343 -0.282 1.512
New England (@ 3) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 1.238 1.153 1.753 0.064 1.343 -0.282 1.512
Northwest (@ 3) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 1.238 1.153 0.753 0.064 1.343 -0.282 1.512
Southwest (@ 3) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 1.238 1.153 0.753 0.064 1.343 -0.282 0.512
South Central (@ 2) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 1.238 1.153 0.753 0.064 0.343 -0.282 0.512
New England (@ 4) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 0.238 1.153 0.753 0.064 0.343 -0.282 0.512
North Central (@ 2) 0.946 -0.933 -0.794 0.238 0.153 0.753 0.064 0.343 -0.282 0.512
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) -0.054 -0.933 -0.794 0.238 0.153 0.753 0.064 0.343 -0.282 0.512
Total 2 1 1 4 2 3 1 2 1 3

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 North Carolina 1 2392.65 41.08 1/4 26-1
2 Brigham Young 1 2318.3 49.07 1/7 20-1
3 Massachusetts 1 2311.41 51.19 1/10 19-3
4 Texas 1 2214.75 72.62 1/16 17-5
5 Vermont 1 2210.06 54 1/14 15-7
6 Colorado 1 2197.57 30.36 3/12 18-5
7 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2175.35 44.73 2/14 24-6
8 Pittsburgh 1 2155.18 58.01 2/18 15-7
9 Oregon 1 2137.14 41.14 3/17 23-7
10 Minnesota 0.999 2070.91 42.4 4/21 13-9
11 Carleton College 0.994 2049.87 42.32 7/23 17-12
12 Tufts 0.991 2068.22 50.71 5/23 12-8
13 Brown 0.985 2074.72 58.74 3/27 14-8
14 California-Santa Cruz 0.982 2089.74 75.17 2/28 21-6
15 UCLA 0.915 2028.29 59.64 5/31 15-8
16 Washington 0.855 1990.14 47.08 7/33 16-13
17 British Columbia 0.817 1992.55 58.78 8/34 14-6
18 California 0.612 1961.57 59.82 6/40 19-10
19 Georgia 0.57 1950.85 58.86 6/36 10-12
20 North Carolina State 0.565 1945.4 44.67 10/34 16-11
21 Washington University 0.285 1905.32 71.34 8/44 15-4
22 Northeastern 0.245 1907.17 49.87 13/38 8-14
23 North Carolina-Charlotte 0.224 1894.48 60.96 12/44 17-7
24 Ottawa 0.206 1829.69 132.83 4/82 5-1
25 Wisconsin 0.16 1894.52 47.33 13/40 13-15
26 Georgia Tech 0.139 1868.33 62.76 13/50 14-8
27 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.123 1884.26 49.93 13/41 17-8
28 Missouri 0.058 1786.83 97.79 13/101 17-4
29 Ohio State 0.057 1835.97 66.18 11/58 9-11
30 Utah Valley 0.044 1614.18 212.72 1/193 7-0
31 Purdue 0.039 1773.1 93.63 12/84 7-6
32 Utah State 0.03 1838.27 47.93 17/55 15-12
33 Michigan 0.027 1788.82 73.92 14/79 5-10
34 South Carolina 0.025 1848.18 46.5 17/46 16-10
35 McGill 0.016 1773.37 84.23 10/78 8-5
36 Duke 0.009 1790.66 56.87 17/56 15-6
37 Oregon State 0.007 1805.73 48.2 19/51 16-12
38 Penn State 0.007 1777.62 66.03 19/63 16-9
39 Florida 0.006 1741.42 81.64 15/83 14-8
40 Grand Canyon 0.003 1705.28 86.88 17/83 6-9
41 Alabama-Huntsville 0.003 1703.13 92.33 17/91 14-2
42 Indiana 0.001 1565.84 115.97 19/148 13-4
43 Boston College 0.001 1218.5 214.34 17/298 2-2
44 Oklahoma Christian 0 1843.49 79.59 12/60 14-3
45 Colorado College 0 1735.34 118.83 11/113 12-5
46 William & Mary 0 1718.88 53.4 26/73 12-5
47 Victoria 0 1696.72 74.27 22/79 8-13
48 Georgetown 0 1696.69 64.63 21/87 10-10
49 Western Washington 0 1688.53 56.65 28/74 9-11
50 Colorado State 0 1647.22 50.94 34/80 7-14
51 Iowa State 0 1646.34 69.56 21/96 14-5
52 Notre Dame 0 1643.26 58.11 29/84 18-10
53 Case Western Reserve 0 1640.01 61.97 30/85 14-12
54 Virginia 0 1635.46 73.8 26/99 8-10
55 Appalachian State 0 1634.05 57.17 31/87 17-7
56 Utah 0 1619.99 81.63 24/104 10-6
57 Northwestern 0 1616.19 80.11 26/107 10-10
58 James Madison 0 1599.64 42.92 40/87 11-7
59 Stanford 0 1582.25 56.59 36/96 5-14
60 California-San Diego 0 1581.41 49.38 38/95 7-14
61 Cincinnati 0 1578.71 82.17 29/115 14-7
62 Middlebury 0 1578.03 62.67 34/108 12-6
63 Emory 0 1576.98 52.9 38/95 11-11
64 Harvard 0 1568.9 70.36 34/111 10-8
65 Rutgers 0 1568.79 72.94 32/116 9-7
66 St. Olaf 0 1568 86.1 27/118 19-6
67 Bowdoin 0 1564.7 69.38 33/118 9-0
68 Virginia Tech 0 1553.29 60.59 35/101 11-10
69 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1549.93 64.31 40/109 13-6
70 Maryland 0 1539.96 53.12 41/106 11-8
71 Lehigh 0 1526.73 61.3 39/112 16-8
72 Cornell 0 1503.6 80.9 36/132 9-10
73 Auburn 0 1497.8 55.01 43/139 3-19
74 California-Santa Barbara 0 1491.64 54.9 47/113 3-17
75 Lewis & Clark 0 1490.93 63.71 39/124 9-4
76 Grinnell 0 1486.77 81.33 36/130 10-3
77 Princeton 0 1483.27 84.56 33/134 11-1
78 Temple 0 1480.32 70.04 45/132 16-13
79 Santa Clara 0 1475.08 68 45/136 11-5
80 Texas A&M 0 1473.68 66.76 46/126 12-12
81 Connecticut College 0 1472.27 83.42 41/142 12-2
82 Whitman 0 1464.12 69.31 50/128 6-6
83 Binghamton 0 1461.54 49.41 53/119 11-8
84 RIT 0 1450.36 46.51 54/117 13-5
85 Richmond 0 1449.92 64.26 51/132 10-10
86 Alabama 0 1446.99 57.54 52/135 14-12
87 Dartmouth 0 1436.97 56.68 56/129 4-9
88 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1436.6 93.36 37/162 12-5
89 Central Florida 0 1434.22 63.39 55/140 14-14
90 Mississippi State 0 1434.06 61.08 54/126 20-8
91 Chicago 0 1433.78 47.73 63/123 13-12
92 Tulane 0 1430.19 68.76 46/141 8-5
93 Missouri S&T 0 1429.82 62.49 54/132 14-7
94 Iowa 0 1426.29 60.97 44/140 13-7
95 Saint Louis 0 1424.8 64.76 53/163 12-6
96 Massachusetts-B 0 1422.22 62.17 48/134 17-4
97 Arkansas 0 1421.49 75.89 49/138 10-2
98 Delaware 0 1419 67.02 57/134 5-5
99 Kentucky 0 1416.81 117.71 37/182 3-4
100 Oberlin 0 1397.67 95.94 43/163 9-2
101 Vermont-B 0 1393.49 53.43 69/132 17-5
102 Navy 0 1376.49 91.04 51/164 10-4
103 Kennesaw State 0 1358.44 75.5 51/170 8-3
104 Truman State 0 1353.36 138.97 35/222 7-4
105 Florida State 0 1345.01 54.11 73/153 12-17
106 California-Davis 0 1344.88 74.09 59/161 15-3
107 Liberty 0 1342.91 85.61 48/180 9-8
108 Tennessee 0 1341.72 63.21 73/151 5-13
109 Vanderbilt 0 1327.62 91.98 52/170 4-8
110 Southern California 0 1323.91 66.29 67/155 1-10
111 Clemson 0 1322.2 91.63 61/179 4-3
112 Washington-B 0 1318.57 78.99 61/178 9-3
113 Illinois 0 1315.98 63.25 77/173 7-14
114 Claremont 0 1312.42 77.88 64/183 10-2
115 Kenyon 0 1311.91 72.41 55/172 9-2
116 Michigan State 0 1310.66 85.19 64/210 7-4
117 John Brown 0 1305.98 85.08 64/185 10-7
118 Colorado Mines 0 1304.9 84.16 54/183 13-3
119 Marquette 0 1300.78 79.74 72/180 6-6
120 College of New Jersey 0 1297.25 89.62 68/210 7-3
121 California-Irvine 0 1295.52 44.72 89/158 7-1
122 Michigan Tech 0 1293.3 78.91 72/178 10-3
123 Williams 0 1293.13 99.11 55/202 9-4
124 Miami (Ohio) 0 1272.39 103.15 66/211 9-3
125 Towson 0 1269.13 98.69 55/202 9-4
126 Washington State 0 1268.19 54.56 84/173 14-7
127 Franciscan 0 1267.6 61.63 77/172 12-6
128 Elon 0 1263.12 76.16 79/198 9-3
129 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1259.41 103.25 59/201 11-2
130 Gonzaga 0 1256.58 85.14 69/196 5-6
131 Messiah 0 1252.29 118.74 59/204 7-6
132 Georgia State 0 1242.58 71.77 81/190 7-14
133 Davidson 0 1238.16 88.34 56/193 6-4
134 Carnegie Mellon 0 1236.31 63.68 86/182 4-12
135 Brigham Young-B 0 1229.18 136.53 49/233 5-2
136 Pacific Lutheran 0 1224.31 56.22 97/180 4-1
137 Portland State 0 1224.16 62.69 92/183 7-5
138 Union (Tennessee) 0 1213.52 118.99 58/223 3-1
139 Occidental 0 1198.28 87.74 74/204 10-3
140 Dayton 0 1198.09 184.56 42/276 7-1
141 Cedarville 0 1188.18 72.22 92/204 7-3
142 LSU 0 1183.87 46.86 108/187 15-13
143 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1183.5 39.14 117/174 12-12
144 Colorado-B 0 1182.73 80.56 92/218 10-7
145 Army 0 1175.5 110.3 59/220 5-4
146 Carthage 0 1172.13 81.55 93/219 9-3
147 Kansas 0 1168.89 87.41 86/206 7-5
148 Connecticut 0 1162.48 65.36 111/209 3-15
149 Minnesota-Duluth 0 1161.01 122.2 70/236 5-7
150 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1155.09 82.24 103/225 12-6
151 George Washington 0 1148.25 64.33 110/204 4-9
152 Arizona State 0 1146.59 88.07 94/219 5-8
153 Northern Arizona 0 1143.35 96.41 92/225 7-3
154 Columbia 0 1140.62 69.04 109/217 6-5
155 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 1136.83 65.86 112/203 14-5
156 Bates 0 1128.97 67.81 109/227 10-6
157 Wichita State 0 1127.46 68.4 107/203 4-3
158 Yale 0 1125.16 142.71 74/267 7-3
159 Tufts-B 0 1118.81 56.82 109/207 8-5
160 Puget Sound 0 1114.99 67.01 114/211 6-6
161 Wesleyan 0 1112.09 52.7 122/203 6-6
162 Rice 0 1111.8 51.81 113/202 8-7
163 American 0 1104.41 67.38 117/215 8-10
164 Boston University 0 1101.13 52.29 123/206 5-8
165 Butler 0 1100.88 73.67 97/233 6-7
166 Penn State-B 0 1098.45 61.51 116/211 12-10
167 California-San Diego-B 0 1093.76 77.81 114/231 9-4
168 Virginia Commonwealth 0 1090.1 58.94 116/229 6-11
169 Johns Hopkins 0 1086.58 56.56 128/217 10-14
170 NYU 0 1083.8 95.58 95/254 7-5
171 Ithaca 0 1078.23 123.38 90/270 6-5
172 Brandeis 0 1066.85 78.22 115/233 3-8
173 East Carolina 0 1063.43 60.43 129/221 5-7
174 Pittsburgh-B 0 1061.3 82.76 112/231 8-4
175 Sam Houston 0 1054.09 123.58 87/262 3-4
176 Rowan 0 1048.16 77.57 106/248 12-6
177 Syracuse 0 1047.79 62.05 129/224 7-10
178 Rochester 0 1040.19 83.42 108/250 10-9
179 San Diego State 0 1039.84 66.75 131/253 11-5
180 Oregon-B 0 1037.32 84.2 124/256 0-2
181 Loyola Marymount 0 1032.73 80.6 129/249 8-6
182 Nevada-Reno 0 1030.01 90.51 103/256 5-5
183 West Virginia 0 1014.57 103.79 122/261 10-5
184 Berry 0 1013.88 91.17 102/259 4-8
185 Minnesota-B 0 1010.96 96.01 116/253 7-8
186 Denver 0 1007.98 101.67 99/261 3-6
187 West Chester 0 1004.65 79.14 121/253 6-9
188 Texas State 0 997.85 84.4 113/257 6-6
189 SUNY-Geneseo 0 995.97 71.89 138/244 5-5
190 Macalester 0 995.96 107.58 104/276 5-2
191 Luther 0 995.04 90.66 108/250 12-7
192 Montana State 0 994.43 141.74 86/289 1-2
193 MIT 0 991.57 73.5 133/243 9-8
194 Grace 0 981.11 78.2 128/244 8-3
195 Wright State 0 976.57 81.2 138/259 8-5
196 North Texas 0 974.85 76.99 141/254 6-8
197 Christopher Newport 0 958.07 62.98 147/272 6-5
198 Amherst 0 957.9 57.32 147/244 7-6
199 Bryant 0 956.6 153.72 83/302 4-4
200 San Jose State 0 951.05 78.15 144/255 8-3
201 Western Michigan 0 948.32 76.25 146/251 7-3
202 Nebraska 0 945.12 107.28 125/271 8-4
203 North Carolina-B 0 939.77 72.05 153/270 3-7
204 South Florida 0 937.69 72.22 135/254 1-13
205 Wooster 0 936.38 86.7 140/261 1-6
206 Northeastern-B 0 936.26 85.63 133/263 5-7
207 Maine 0 931.22 76.71 146/257 0-6
208 SUNY-Cortland 0 928.38 67.96 154/262 9-12
209 Colby 0 919.4 96.44 129/275 4-2
210 Colgate 0 919.06 119.27 112/287 1-1
211 Illinois State 0 910.86 55.9 166/257 12-15
212 Rhode Island 0 905.27 57.82 166/256 6-7
213 Bentley 0 901.8 56.09 158/245 1-3
214 Alabama-Birmingham 0 900.08 43.17 181/252 12-11
215 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 896.3 63.17 155/266 4-5
216 Embry-Riddle 0 894.43 92.77 136/284 3-2
217 Reed 0 889.21 123.33 113/308 3-2
218 Wheaton (Illinois) 0 885.49 61.44 161/260 5-6
219 North Park 0 881.54 78.2 155/282 9-3
220 Boise State 0 877.69 95.17 141/286 6-5
221 Texas-Dallas 0 872.96 75.15 139/268 6-8
222 Tulane-B 0 867.73 70.73 166/274 4-3
223 Georgia-B 0 859.59 126.79 120/295 2-4
224 Dickinson 0 857.63 46.95 185/258 9-5
225 California-B 0 854.61 84.65 137/289 3-8
226 Seattle 0 852.21 84.91 150/289 3-3
227 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 842.57 87.21 145/286 5-10
228 Haverford 0 813.68 60.5 182/282 8-6
229 Brown-B 0 811.12 79.25 177/288 2-3
230 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 804.17 84.28 187/301 4-3
231 Temple-B 0 799.6 77.55 169/290 11-4
232 Willamette University 0 797.79 66.08 187/284 2-4
233 Arizona 0 797.02 85.18 166/308 1-5
234 Cal State-Long Beach 0 791.9 71.52 182/289 4-11
235 Chico State 0 782.35 47.79 198/276 5-12
236 Florida-B 0 779.91 102.82 163/305 7-6
237 Xavier 0 773.54 53.08 201/287 7-12
238 Air Force 0 770.77 88.91 177/300 1-6
239 Montana 0 765.64 108.4 168/314 3-6
240 Spring Hill 0 763.27 66.53 197/292 4-9
241 Stevens Tech 0 761.75 79.2 161/296 9-8
242 Georgia College 0 759.14 90.15 171/300 4-6
243 Humboldt State 0 757.23 108.68 163/319 2-9
244 Samford 0 756.32 87.69 186/305 2-4
245 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 752.23 110.79 158/320 4-7
246 Pennsylvania 0 751.3 55.27 209/288 5-7
247 SUNY-Albany 0 749.92 82.55 190/292 4-7
248 Northern Iowa 0 748.85 60.07 201/298 5-7
249 Wisconsin-Whitewater 0 748.21 54.98 203/281 6-7
250 Drexel 0 744.55 55.7 212/294 5-20
251 Texas-San Antonio 0 736.79 116.51 155/310 3-6
252 Shippensburg 0 732.94 51.14 209/286 4-6
253 Alabama-B 0 732.69 53.68 201/293 11-15
254 Texas-B 0 730 58.98 211/290 5-9
255 Wentworth 0 723.72 90.88 184/308 0-4
256 Oregon State-B 0 717.62 88.3 178/313 3-7
257 Oklahoma 0 717.48 90.3 192/314 5-10
258 Toledo 0 715.6 86.35 183/304 8-5
259 North Carolina State-B 0 714.24 94.32 170/318 1-4
260 Worcester Polytech 0 705.43 108.08 167/324 3-4
261 South Carolina-B 0 698.2 121.2 156/334 8-3
262 Jacksonville State 0 696.22 54.71 220/298 7-13
263 Arizona State-B 0 690.05 146.32 146/343 2-4
264 Ohio State 0 688.78 108.13 173/321 4-3
265 Southern California-B 0 685.02 133.79 127/334 3-3
266 High Point 0 681.67 147.27 134/333 1-3
267 Swarthmore 0 681.29 57.67 218/307 2-7
268 Oklahoma State 0 681.23 77.36 199/317 3-13
269 Fresno State 0 666.88 65.89 217/307 2-4
270 Southern Mississippi 0 653.44 102.3 204/328 2-6
271 Vermont-C 0 651.42 214.55 85/365 3-2
272 Georgia Southern 0 651.41 67.27 228/316 4-15
273 Harding 0 649.53 71.76 218/320 10-10
274 Wake Forest 0 648.04 65.5 227/305 3-9
275 Texas A&M-B 0 632.68 100.42 202/330 5-8
276 Ohio 0 619.98 81.94 212/321 5-7
277 Michigan-B 0 615.56 54.39 230/309 4-7
278 DePaul 0 612.69 76.34 216/321 5-8
279 UCLA-B 0 608.47 69.58 228/314 6-7
280 Georgia Tech-B 0 592.43 54.78 246/313 3-8
281 Loyola-Chicago 0 592.42 82.92 220/322 6-4
282 Baylor 0 590.32 109.15 211/334 3-7
283 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 585.54 80.56 225/331 5-7
284 Ball State 0 578.47 62.04 240/322 5-7
285 Valparaiso 0 574.89 108.66 206/345 2-4
286 New Hampshire 0 567.47 69.35 238/322 0-7
287 Skidmore 0 559.1 53.77 250/320 2-6
288 Memphis 0 557.6 132.1 197/346 2-4
289 Villanova 0 549.69 114.98 202/348 3-8
290 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 545.96 123.72 213/352 1-5
291 Portland 0 543.82 66.57 244/331 2-10
292 California-Davis-B 0 538.88 71.55 232/331 3-7
293 Miami (Florida) 0 535.34 114.69 225/342 2-5
294 SUNY-Oneonta 0 528.83 58.29 255/322 3-2
295 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 523.06 66.14 252/325 3-13
296 Connecticut-B 0 514.36 83.68 247/343 5-6
297 Dartmouth-B 0 507.88 88.62 241/336 4-2
298 Winona State 0 505.83 123.69 214/353 1-8
299 Muhlenberg 0 502.68 135.57 198/352 3-3
300 Wisconsin-B 0 501.83 63.75 251/327 4-8
301 Michigan State-B 0 484.66 98.26 241/347 2-8
302 Hofstra 0 472.11 76.13 249/341 3-12
303 Western New England 0 465.5 63.59 253/338 1-4
304 Rutgers-B 0 445.57 60.17 275/339 4-5
305 Purdue-B 0 444.41 66.19 266/340 4-8
306 Houston 0 441.66 56.45 271/335 3-8
307 Whitworth 0 434.61 59.94 278/343 3-8
308 Mississippi State-B 0 432.02 75.51 267/350 4-15
309 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 431.96 84.37 260/346 2-7
310 Rose-Hulman 0 418.24 108.38 229/353 2-4
311 St. Thomas 0 417.73 153.62 226/366 1-4
312 Charleston 0 414.86 93.27 260/352 0-4
313 West Chester-B 0 404.29 131.54 225/358 3-7
314 Virginia-B 0 402.36 135.75 226/363 1-5
315 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 0 388.87 88.3 269/352 3-8
316 Knox 0 380.45 102.55 246/355 5-6
317 Virginia Tech-B 0 358.06 137.63 239/363 5-1
318 San Diego State-B 0 356.12 170.58 204/368 1-4
319 Illinois-B 0 354.3 126.04 265/361 4-8
320 SUNY-Stony Brook-B 0 352.99 69.34 291/352 0-6
321 Harvard-B 0 343.5 63.61 291/349 1-11
322 Rensselaer Polytech 0 340.76 78.09 278/357 5-5
323 North Carolina-Asheville 0 338.85 133.17 248/366 0-6
324 Carleton College-Karls-C 0 325.43 173.12 230/371 1-5
325 Akron 0 315.2 93.41 281/361 3-3
326 Stanford-B 0 313.66 91.09 286/358 2-11
327 Minnesota-C 0 304.01 105.11 278/359 2-9
328 Vassar 0 303.68 136.88 250/366 2-3
329 Idaho 0 297.67 99 277/359 0-9
330 Bradley 0 295.38 169.12 196/369 2-3
331 Caltech 0 290.12 174.57 231/369 1-4
332 Washington University-B 0 286.48 170.18 197/370 1-5
333 Kansas State 0 284.51 129.49 261/364 1-6
334 Kent State 0 281.43 131.76 254/365 2-4
335 Marquette-B 0 278.63 108.23 277/363 1-4
336 Mary Washington 0 272.52 139.89 244/365 1-5
337 Edinboro 0 269.37 75.84 296/359 3-7
338 Texas Tech 0 259.24 124.65 272/368 1-10
339 Messiah 0 246.26 80.18 296/359 2-4
340 California-San Diego-C 0 240.47 134.58 270/367 2-10
341 Northwestern-B 0 237.28 191.01 189/372 0-6
342 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 235 121.05 280/366 0-6
343 Trinity 0 214.33 133.34 270/372 2-8
344 Maryland-B 0 202.22 78.4 312/360 10-2
345 Colorado State-B 0 185.03 287.69 172/374 1-3
346 St John's (Minnesota) 0 184.88 87.9 310/368 1-5
347 Northeastern-C 0 183.6 88.81 299/362 0-6
348 Lehigh-B 0 171.65 70.42 306/362 2-11
349 Iowa State-B 0 170.62 100.23 290/365 2-9
350 Santa Clara-B 0 164.22 150.2 266/371 0-6
351 James Madison-B 0 138.45 106.95 302/367 4-2
352 Mississippi 0 118.21 195.36 258/373 0-7
353 Salisbury 0 113.45 130.85 283/370 0-9
354 Notre Dame-B 0 92.32 112.73 310/370 2-4
355 Mississippi College 0 86.61 84.59 322/367 0-11
356 Cornell-B 0 76.83 84.83 322/370 4-7
357 Grand Canyon-B 0 62.64 169.08 282/373 1-8
358 SUNY-Fredonia 0 38.15 131.21 307/373 0-10
359 Siena 0 23.97 103.18 327/371 1-9
360 Iowa-B 0 4.56 123.03 304/373 1-5
361 Butler-B 0 -47.17 126.67 326/374 1-10
362 Case Western Reserve-B 0 -48.02 134.95 325/373 2-9
363 Denver-B 0 -62.29 219.59 275/375 1-9
364 Pacific Lutheran-B 0 -69.78 363.2 180/376 0-2
365 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -113.64 98.4 341/373 1-9
366 William & Mary-B 0 -128.09 94.09 348/374 3-4
367 Pennsylvania-B 0 -133.35 93.28 346/374 2-8
368 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 -149.01 59.21 355/374 0-5
369 Georgetown-B 0 -246.19 68.79 359/374 2-4
370 Delaware-B 0 -318.28 231.71 291/376 1-5
371 George Washington-B 0 -382.28 60.37 367/375 3-9
372 Southern Connecticut State 0 -392.74 238.6 321/376 0-4
373 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 -434.09 211.83 342/376 0-9
374 Grinnell-B 0 -490.56 389.87 235/376 1-5
375 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 0 -615.56 384.99 292/376 0-6
376 American-B 0 -930.99 146.14 372/376 0-11

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)