#268 Michigan State-B (9-6)

avg: 808.12  •  sd: 85.73  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
301 Luther Win 10-4 1280.62 Mar 15th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
338 Rose-Hulman Win 8-6 843.26 Mar 15th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
392 Wisconsin-C** Win 12-5 740.91 Ignored Mar 15th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
402 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B Win 15-7 617.81 Mar 16th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
204 Winona State Loss 14-15 920.92 Mar 16th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
204 Winona State Win 14-13 1170.92 Mar 16th Grand Rapids Invite 2025
242 Grace Loss 7-9 630.36 Mar 29th King of the Hill 2025
302 Western Michigan Win 9-8 805.56 Mar 29th King of the Hill 2025
270 Valparaiso Loss 2-11 207.24 Mar 29th King of the Hill 2025
227 Michigan-B Loss 3-13 361.98 Mar 29th King of the Hill 2025
343 Chicago-B Win 13-4 1103.85 Apr 12th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
256 Illinois-B Win 13-7 1418.35 Apr 12th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
371 Northwestern-B Win 13-5 910.15 Apr 12th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
256 Illinois-B Loss 10-15 407.22 Apr 13th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
227 Michigan-B Loss 12-15 661.49 Apr 13th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)