#404 American-B (5-14)

avg: 34.29  •  sd: 61.68  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
375 Georgetown-B Loss 4-12 -290.36 Feb 24th Monument Melee
399 Johns Hopkins-B Loss 6-8 -246.81 Feb 24th Monument Melee
393 George Washington-B Loss 4-9 -442.18 Feb 24th Monument Melee
390 Delaware-B Loss 2-8 -410.07 Feb 25th Monument Melee
390 Delaware-B Loss 6-7 64.93 Feb 25th Monument Melee
311 Maryland-B** Loss 1-13 74.55 Ignored Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
415 St Mary's (Maryland) Win 13-7 50.44 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
345 Cornell-B Loss 5-13 -65.9 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
392 Richmond-B Loss 3-13 -432.32 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
311 Maryland-B** Loss 5-15 74.55 Ignored Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
415 St Mary's (Maryland) Win 15-5 92.91 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
390 Delaware-B Win 8-7 314.93 Apr 13th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2024
311 Maryland-B Loss 6-8 374.06 Apr 13th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2024
375 Georgetown-B Loss 4-6 -55.97 Apr 13th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2024
393 George Washington-B Win 9-7 437.16 Apr 14th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2024
375 Georgetown-B Win 8-7 434.64 Apr 14th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2024
311 Maryland-B** Loss 0-5 74.55 Ignored Apr 14th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2024
336 Virginia-B Loss 8-13 73.78 May 4th Atlantic Coast Dev College Mens Regionals 2024
390 Delaware-B Loss 10-11 64.93 May 4th Atlantic Coast Dev College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)