#413 American-B (1-16)

avg: -300.59  •  sd: 145.57  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
408 Richmond-B Loss 1-12 -703.61 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
404 Georgetown-B Loss 3-12 -606.03 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
401 George Washington-B Loss 5-9 -502.18 Feb 22nd Monument Melee 2025
404 Georgetown-B Loss 4-9 -606.03 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
401 George Washington-B Loss 8-11 -338.73 Feb 23rd Monument Melee 2025
111 Vermont-B** Loss 1-15 818.32 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
170 Messiah** Loss 6-15 595.06 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
106 Appalachian State** Loss 1-15 849.49 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
132 Florida State** Loss 5-14 727.53 Ignored Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
232 George Washington** Loss 1-15 340.66 Ignored Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
401 George Washington-B Loss 10-11 -98.12 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
395 Maryland-B Loss 4-13 -478.4 Apr 12th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2025
337 Delaware-B** Loss 2-13 -55.43 Ignored Apr 12th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2025
401 George Washington-B Loss 4-12 -573.12 Apr 12th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2025
404 Georgetown-B Win 10-6 490.13 Apr 13th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2025
401 George Washington-B Loss 9-10 -98.12 Apr 13th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2025
395 Maryland-B Loss 6-8 -178.89 Apr 13th Colonial Dev Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)