#64 Penn State (15-15)

avg: 1476.98  •  sd: 60.92  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
51 Virginia Loss 8-9 1452.69 Jan 27th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
89 Virginia Tech Win 9-4 1906.92 Jan 27th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
36 William & Mary Win 9-8 1884.89 Jan 27th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
50 Georgetown Win 7-3 2201.27 Jan 28th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
51 Virginia Loss 5-7 1249.55 Jan 28th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
36 William & Mary Loss 4-9 1159.89 Jan 28th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
41 South Carolina Loss 7-13 1141.41 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
78 Harvard Win 7-6 1489.9 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
98 Maryland Win 11-5 1834.7 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
27 Brown Loss 3-11 1269.14 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
65 James Madison Win 9-8 1587.49 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
59 Purdue Win 7-5 1844.56 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
27 Brown Loss 7-9 1589.81 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
8 Tufts** Loss 2-15 1755.7 Ignored Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
51 Virginia Loss 5-13 977.69 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
44 Yale Loss 6-8 1345.99 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
71 Columbia Win 8-5 1861.42 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
44 Yale Loss 6-8 1345.99 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
121 Temple Loss 7-8 953.5 Apr 13th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2024
250 Pennsylvania-B** Win 14-1 600 Ignored Apr 13th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2024
108 West Chester Win 8-3 1779.47 Apr 13th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2024
112 Carnegie Mellon Win 10-6 1630.19 Apr 14th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2024
22 Pittsburgh Loss 5-15 1334.21 Apr 14th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2024
158 Case Western Reserve Win 10-6 1330.66 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2024
49 Ohio Win 10-9 1731.71 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2024
108 West Chester Win 9-8 1304.47 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2024
16 Pennsylvania Loss 5-10 1525.23 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2024
112 Carnegie Mellon Win 9-5 1663.09 Apr 28th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2024
24 Ohio State Loss 6-10 1397.72 Apr 28th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2024
22 Pittsburgh Loss 5-15 1334.21 Apr 28th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)