#56 Rochester (19-4)

avg: 1421.56  •  sd: 51.1  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
104 Yale Win 5-1 1640.63 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
86 Wellesley Loss 4-5 1018.71 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
162 Colby** Win 8-1 1259.76 Ignored Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
138 Massachusetts** Win 6-2 1398.11 Ignored Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
174 New Hampshire Win 4-2 1077.98 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
86 Wellesley Win 4-3 1268.71 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
105 Amherst Win 10-8 1302.81 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
96 Ithaca Win 11-4 1693.91 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
51 Middlebury Loss 8-11 1115.94 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
87 Vermont-B Win 11-6 1686.46 Mar 29th Northeast Classic 2025
96 Ithaca Win 9-7 1373.25 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
51 Middlebury Loss 3-13 881.55 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
163 SUNY-Geneseo** Win 13-2 1246.2 Ignored Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2025
122 Colgate Win 13-4 1527.28 Apr 12th Western NY D III Womens Conferences 2025
154 Hamilton** Win 13-1 1281.07 Ignored Apr 12th Western NY D III Womens Conferences 2025
96 Ithaca Win 9-3 1693.91 Apr 12th Western NY D III Womens Conferences 2025
163 SUNY-Geneseo** Win 11-3 1246.2 Ignored Apr 12th Western NY D III Womens Conferences 2025
154 Hamilton Win 13-6 1281.07 Apr 26th Metro East D III College Womens Regionals 2025
96 Ithaca Win 15-1 1693.91 Apr 26th Metro East D III College Womens Regionals 2025
163 SUNY-Geneseo** Win 13-0 1246.2 Ignored Apr 26th Metro East D III College Womens Regionals 2025
184 Skidmore** Win 15-3 1121.35 Ignored Apr 26th Metro East D III College Womens Regionals 2025
96 Ithaca Win 8-2 1693.91 Apr 27th Metro East D III College Womens Regionals 2025
39 Wesleyan Loss 6-7 1461.83 Apr 27th Metro East D III College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)