#238 Illinois State (11-20)

avg: 924.53  •  sd: 43.02  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
101 Berry Loss 7-13 904.91 Jan 25th T Town Throwdown XX
284 Harding Win 13-6 1361.43 Jan 25th T Town Throwdown XX
393 Tennessee-Chattanooga -B** Win 13-1 738.31 Ignored Jan 25th T Town Throwdown XX
128 LSU Loss 5-13 741.01 Jan 25th T Town Throwdown XX
100 Alabama Loss 4-13 865.6 Jan 26th T Town Throwdown XX
171 Alabama-Birmingham Loss 5-11 592.55 Jan 26th T Town Throwdown XX
117 Mississippi State Loss 5-15 775.25 Jan 26th T Town Throwdown XX
93 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Loss 5-9 958.57 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
422 Wisconsin-Eau Claire-B** Win 10-3 600 Ignored Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
110 Iowa Loss 4-13 823.75 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
103 Marquette Loss 5-13 853.26 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
274 St John's (Minnesota) Loss 10-12 550.74 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
309 Washington University-B Win 12-8 1082.12 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
256 Illinois-B Win 12-7 1381.33 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
118 Colorado Mines Loss 9-13 954.09 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
195 Minnesota-B Loss 7-13 526.33 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
135 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Loss 7-13 763.86 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
187 Nebraska Loss 6-13 518.9 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
266 Wisconsin-Platteville Win 12-9 1156.63 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
58 Illinois Loss 8-12 1231.79 Apr 12th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2025
93 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Loss 5-13 887.63 Apr 12th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2025
308 Illinois-Chicago Win 11-10 771.69 Apr 12th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2025
121 Northwestern Loss 9-15 847.87 Apr 12th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2025
257 DePaul Win 9-8 982.03 Apr 13th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2025
308 Illinois-Chicago Win 7-6 771.69 Apr 13th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2025
121 Northwestern Loss 9-12 1017.99 Apr 13th Illinois D I Mens Conferences 2025
49 Chicago** Loss 2-13 1148.65 Ignored Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
93 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Loss 5-13 887.63 Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
227 Michigan-B Loss 12-13 836.98 Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
256 Illinois-B Win 15-9 1376.3 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
296 Loyola-Chicago Win 15-10 1170.64 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)