#225 Colby (15-16)

avg: 1035.69  •  sd: 46.85  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
139 Army Loss 5-10 774.45 Feb 24th Bring The Huckus 2024
234 Haverford Win 10-8 1262.19 Feb 24th Bring The Huckus 2024
267 SUNY-Geneseo Win 10-9 996.49 Feb 24th Bring The Huckus 2024
108 Vermont-B Loss 3-13 875.03 Feb 24th Bring The Huckus 2024
244 Dickinson Win 15-10 1432.7 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus 2024
256 Salisbury Win 15-10 1373.39 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus 2024
108 Vermont-B Loss 8-15 910.22 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus 2024
279 Amherst Win 14-13 960.51 Mar 2nd Grand Northeast Kickoff
76 Massachusetts -B Loss 3-15 1010.5 Mar 2nd Grand Northeast Kickoff
138 Tufts-B Loss 9-15 848.25 Mar 2nd Grand Northeast Kickoff
279 Amherst Win 14-12 1056.47 Mar 3rd Grand Northeast Kickoff
312 Western New England Win 15-12 974.16 Mar 3rd Grand Northeast Kickoff
218 Middlebury-B Win 14-10 1453.41 Mar 3rd Grand Northeast Kickoff
279 Amherst Win 10-5 1409.41 Mar 30th New England Open 2024 Open Division
80 Bates Loss 4-9 990.96 Mar 30th New England Open 2024 Open Division
329 Harvard-B Win 8-6 900.65 Mar 30th New England Open 2024 Open Division
189 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Loss 2-9 559.5 Mar 30th New England Open 2024 Open Division
142 Bryant Loss 5-13 740.78 Mar 31st New England Open 2024 Open Division
138 Tufts-B Loss 6-9 945.17 Mar 31st New England Open 2024 Open Division
210 Northeastern-B Win 8-7 1205.66 Mar 31st New England Open 2024 Open Division
115 Bowdoin Loss 8-13 940.78 Apr 13th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
25 Middlebury** Loss 6-15 1404.07 Ignored Apr 13th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
75 Dartmouth Loss 6-13 1012.49 Apr 14th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
367 Dartmouth-B** Win 15-1 1017.54 Ignored Apr 14th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
218 Middlebury-B Loss 7-12 534.2 Apr 14th North New England D III Mens Conferences 2024
279 Amherst Win 11-10 960.51 May 4th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
259 Brandeis Win 11-6 1461.63 May 4th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
25 Middlebury** Loss 2-15 1404.07 Ignored May 4th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
55 Williams Loss 7-15 1149.57 May 4th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
142 Bryant Loss 7-13 783.24 May 5th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
218 Middlebury-B Win 11-8 1420.32 May 5th New England D III College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)