**avg:** 53.68 •
**sd:** 111.16 •
** top 16/20:** 0%

# | Opponent | Result | Game Rating | Status | Date | Event |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

404 | American-B | Win 8-6 | 334.79 | Feb 24th | Monument Melee | |

390 | Delaware-B | Win 8-7 | 314.93 | Feb 24th | Monument Melee | |

375 | Georgetown-B | Loss 5-8 | -143.97 | Feb 24th | Monument Melee | |

393 | George Washington-B | Loss 5-8 | -295.78 | Feb 25th | Monument Melee | |

393 | George Washington-B | Loss 9-10 | 32.82 | Feb 25th | Monument Melee |

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a teamâ€™s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation

- Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
- Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
- Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
- Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
- Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
- Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded

There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)