#314 Willamette (3-5)

avg: 625.37  •  sd: 150.06  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
251 Seattle Loss 11-13 649.13 Mar 1st PLU BBQ men
349 Washington State Loss 8-13 -56.46 Mar 1st PLU BBQ men
307 Whitworth Loss 11-12 531.96 Mar 1st PLU BBQ men
315 Pacific Lutheran Win 13-10 947.45 Mar 2nd PLU BBQ men
378 Portland State Win 13-9 677.13 Mar 2nd PLU BBQ men
315 Pacific Lutheran Loss 7-10 229.64 Apr 19th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
43 Whitman** Loss 3-15 1183.61 Ignored Apr 19th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
291 Reed Win 12-7 1251.79 Apr 20th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)