#315 Pacific Lutheran (4-12)

avg: 619.3  •  sd: 62.5  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
231 Air Force Loss 8-13 445.86 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
107 Claremont Loss 6-12 865.51 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
89 Colorado College** Loss 4-13 896.88 Ignored Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
118 Colorado Mines** Loss 5-13 772.65 Ignored Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
199 Occidental Loss 8-13 578.89 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
291 Reed Loss 11-12 606.28 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
250 Portland Loss 12-13 758.73 Mar 1st PLU BBQ men
378 Portland State Win 13-8 754.72 Mar 1st PLU BBQ men
291 Reed Loss 9-13 312.71 Mar 1st PLU BBQ men
349 Washington State Win 15-7 1039.7 Mar 2nd PLU BBQ men
314 Willamette Loss 10-13 297.22 Mar 2nd PLU BBQ men
378 Portland State Win 15-9 774.04 Mar 2nd PLU BBQ men
139 Puget Sound Loss 5-11 705.31 Apr 19th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
314 Willamette Win 10-7 1015.03 Apr 19th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
250 Portland Loss 5-14 283.73 Apr 19th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
291 Reed Loss 6-9 312.71 Apr 20th Northwest D III Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)