#280 Texas-San Antonio (6-11)

avg: 777.27  •  sd: 74.23  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
189 Baylor Loss 7-15 507.7 Feb 1st Big D in Little D 2025
323 Rice Win 14-4 1198.88 Feb 1st Big D in Little D 2025
283 Texas State Loss 12-15 462.07 Feb 1st Big D in Little D 2025
283 Texas State Loss 9-11 513.36 Feb 2nd Big D in Little D 2025
275 Texas Tech Loss 9-10 663.22 Feb 2nd Big D in Little D 2025
86 Colorado-B Loss 6-13 909.79 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
278 Jacksonville State Win 10-9 903.21 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
320 Mississippi State-B Win 10-8 865.76 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
90 Texas A&M** Loss 5-13 896.44 Ignored Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
283 Texas State Loss 5-11 162.57 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
305 Sam Houston Win 11-9 916.91 Apr 12th South Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
14 Texas** Loss 0-13 1465.09 Ignored Apr 12th South Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
332 Texas A&M-B Win 9-7 852.32 Apr 12th South Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
283 Texas State Loss 9-11 513.36 Apr 12th South Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
305 Sam Houston Win 15-10 1121.31 Apr 13th South Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
90 Texas A&M Loss 7-13 938.91 Apr 13th South Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
90 Texas A&M** Loss 5-12 896.44 Ignored Apr 13th South Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)