#183 Tarleton State (12-5)

avg: 1148.38  •  sd: 96.86  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
120 Arizona State Loss 4-12 765.92 Mar 15th Mens Centex 2025
189 Baylor Win 11-10 1232.7 Mar 15th Mens Centex 2025
85 Boston College Win 11-10 1641.2 Mar 15th Mens Centex 2025
220 Texas-B Loss 7-13 443.13 Mar 15th Mens Centex 2025
225 Arkansas Loss 8-15 411.49 Mar 16th Mens Centex 2025
284 Harding Loss 13-15 547.26 Mar 16th Mens Centex 2025
191 Oklahoma State Loss 13-15 886.22 Mar 16th Mens Centex 2025
400 Angelo State** Win 13-0 683.15 Ignored Mar 29th Huckfest 2025
367 Dallas** Win 13-3 946.22 Ignored Mar 29th Huckfest 2025
323 Rice Win 13-8 1095.04 Mar 29th Huckfest 2025
220 Texas-B Win 13-10 1328.81 Mar 29th Huckfest 2025
189 Baylor Win 15-12 1408.19 Mar 30th Huckfest 2025
272 Oklahoma Win 15-10 1258.89 Mar 30th Huckfest 2025
189 Baylor Win 12-10 1345.82 Apr 12th North Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
245 Texas-Dallas Win 12-6 1480.69 Apr 12th North Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
130 North Texas Win 11-8 1695.83 Apr 13th North Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
245 Texas-Dallas Win 14-10 1300.08 Apr 13th North Texas D I Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)