#367 Dallas (4-12)

avg: 346.22  •  sd: 73  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
130 North Texas** Loss 1-13 730.22 Ignored Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2025
163 Truman State** Loss 4-13 622.22 Ignored Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2025
191 Oklahoma State Loss 7-12 579.89 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2025
87 Missouri S&T** Loss 2-13 907.58 Ignored Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2025
284 Harding Loss 5-10 187.54 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2025
322 Kansas State Loss 7-11 134.27 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2025
159 Kansas** Loss 4-11 632.13 Ignored Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2025
400 Angelo State Win 13-10 411.3 Mar 29th Huckfest 2025
323 Rice Loss 9-13 180.31 Mar 29th Huckfest 2025
220 Texas-B** Loss 4-13 400.66 Ignored Mar 29th Huckfest 2025
183 Tarleton State** Loss 3-13 548.38 Ignored Mar 29th Huckfest 2025
400 Angelo State Win 15-14 208.15 Mar 30th Huckfest 2025
332 Texas A&M-B Loss 8-11 207.37 Mar 30th Huckfest 2025
394 Stephen F Austin Win 8-4 702.74 Mar 30th Huckfest 2025
293 Trinity Win 12-11 853.63 Apr 12th Texas D III Mens Conferences 2025
323 Rice Loss 5-13 -1.12 Apr 12th Texas D III Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)