#12 Michigan (27-6)

avg: 2199.69  •  sd: 84.8  •  top 16/20: 99.6%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
19 Georgia Loss 10-12 1790.05 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
24 Ohio State Win 15-10 2347.48 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
6 North Carolina Loss 7-15 1899.4 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
16 Pennsylvania Win 15-11 2480.29 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
3 Carleton College Loss 5-11 2022 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
21 Northeastern Win 15-11 2341.04 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
112 Carnegie Mellon** Win 15-2 1734.03 Ignored Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
39 SUNY-Binghamton Win 15-9 2235.83 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
56 North Carolina State Win 15-11 1924.93 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
41 South Carolina Win 13-6 2298.94 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
19 Georgia Win 13-5 2628.17 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
8 Tufts Loss 5-13 1755.7 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
23 Notre Dame Win 10-7 2321.19 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
27 Brown Win 15-8 2433.95 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
8 Tufts Loss 7-10 1966.04 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
51 Virginia Win 11-5 2177.69 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
108 West Chester** Win 15-2 1779.47 Ignored Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
6 North Carolina Loss 9-13 2080.83 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
16 Pennsylvania Win 10-8 2361.79 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
26 Wisconsin Win 11-6 2423.87 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
141 Grand Valley** Win 13-4 1522.69 Ignored Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
59 Purdue Win 9-4 2116.42 Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
117 Michigan State** Win 12-4 1712.88 Ignored Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
222 Notre Dame-B** Win 13-0 850.6 Ignored Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
140 Indiana** Win 15-2 1528.81 Ignored Apr 14th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
23 Notre Dame Win 7-3 2531.53 Apr 14th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2024
129 Illinois** Win 10-1 1637.5 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
160 Loyola-Chicago** Win 12-2 1418.85 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
59 Purdue Win 9-5 2045.48 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
222 Notre Dame-B** Win 15-0 850.6 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
141 Grand Valley** Win 15-5 1522.69 Ignored Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
70 Northwestern** Win 14-3 2019.28 Ignored Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
23 Notre Dame Win 12-10 2169.65 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)