#6 North Carolina (34-3)

avg: 2499.4  •  sd: 84.4  •  top 16/20: 100%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
103 Clemson** Win 12-3 1799.73 Ignored Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
62 Duke** Win 14-1 2084.05 Ignored Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
56 North Carolina State Win 9-6 1962.33 Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
62 Duke Win 13-6 2084.05 Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
151 North Carolina-B** Win 13-2 1467.95 Ignored Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
56 North Carolina State** Win 7-2 2143.77 Ignored Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff Womens 2024
19 Georgia Win 12-6 2607.48 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
12 Michigan Win 15-7 2799.69 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
16 Pennsylvania Win 12-7 2619.64 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
24 Ohio State Win 15-8 2458.68 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
3 Carleton College Win 15-11 3003.16 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
8 Tufts Win 12-9 2701.07 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
23 Notre Dame Win 10-6 2427.69 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
28 California Win 13-7 2414.05 Mar 16th NW Challenge 2024
10 Washington Win 13-9 2676.65 Mar 16th NW Challenge 2024
3 Carleton College Loss 12-13 2497 Mar 17th NW Challenge 2024
7 Colorado Win 13-10 2754.38 Mar 17th NW Challenge 2024
15 Western Washington Win 13-4 2732.74 Mar 17th NW Challenge 2024
27 Brown** Win 11-3 2469.14 Ignored Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
2 Vermont Loss 11-15 2296 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
39 SUNY-Binghamton Win 14-7 2303.24 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
21 Northeastern Win 15-6 2559.88 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
8 Tufts Win 9-8 2480.7 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
2 Vermont Loss 10-12 2439.04 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
12 Michigan Win 13-9 2618.25 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
41 South Carolina** Win 14-6 2298.94 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
120 Charleston** Win 15-1 1682.15 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
123 East Carolina** Win 15-0 1673.86 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
225 North Carolina-Wilmington** Win 15-1 817.16 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
104 Appalachian State** Win 15-3 1796.7 Ignored Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
62 Duke Win 13-6 2084.05 Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
65 James Madison** Win 15-1 2062.49 Ignored May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
125 Johns Hopkins** Win 15-0 1662.17 Ignored May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
98 Maryland** Win 15-4 1834.7 Ignored May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
38 American** Win 15-6 2323.68 Ignored May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
103 Clemson** Win 15-2 1799.73 Ignored May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
36 William & Mary** Win 15-2 2359.89 Ignored May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)