#104 Appalachian State (8-13)

avg: 1196.7  •  sd: 77.74  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
34 Washington University Loss 3-15 1184.16 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
3 Carleton College** Loss 1-15 2022 Ignored Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
23 Notre Dame** Loss 2-15 1331.53 Ignored Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
22 Pittsburgh Loss 7-12 1413.7 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2024
51 Virginia Loss 3-15 977.69 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up 2024
249 Emory-B** Win 13-0 600 Ignored Mar 23rd Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
158 Case Western Reserve Win 6-2 1434.5 Mar 23rd Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
120 Charleston Win 12-5 1682.15 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
63 Tennessee Loss 6-10 981.96 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
50 Georgetown Loss 2-11 1001.27 Mar 24th Needle in a Ho Stack 2024
188 Wake Forest** Win 15-1 1166.45 Ignored Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
103 Clemson Win 9-8 1324.73 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
56 North Carolina State Win 8-7 1668.77 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
62 Duke Loss 6-11 937.36 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
41 South Carolina Loss 4-11 1098.94 Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
6 North Carolina** Loss 3-15 1899.4 Ignored Apr 14th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2024
38 American Loss 7-12 1203.17 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
50 Georgetown Loss 4-15 1001.27 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
103 Clemson Loss 9-14 725.86 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
138 Liberty Win 14-10 1345.46 May 4th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
120 Charleston Win 7-5 1410.29 May 5th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)