#276 Chico State (2-14)

avg: 784.1  •  sd: 60.42  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
157 Washington-B Loss 3-12 640.2 Feb 8th Stanford Open Mens
109 San Diego State** Loss 3-13 828.77 Ignored Feb 8th Stanford Open Mens
327 Cal State-Long Beach Win 13-4 1182.29 Feb 9th Stanford Open Mens
279 California-B Loss 9-10 652.31 Feb 9th Stanford Open Mens
200 Cal Poly-Humboldt Loss 8-11 699.21 Mar 15th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
279 California-B Loss 8-9 652.31 Mar 15th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
175 California-Santa Cruz-B Loss 3-13 580.4 Mar 15th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
124 San Jose State Loss 7-12 838.43 Mar 15th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
200 Cal Poly-Humboldt Loss 7-10 675.15 Mar 16th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
279 California-B Loss 8-9 652.31 Mar 16th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
13 California** Loss 3-15 1503.63 Ignored Apr 12th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
261 Nevada-Reno Win 9-7 1110.97 Apr 12th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
124 San Jose State Loss 9-14 885.07 Apr 12th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
127 Santa Clara Loss 7-13 784.08 Apr 12th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
200 Cal Poly-Humboldt Loss 9-11 815.61 Apr 13th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
173 California-Davis Loss 8-12 741.2 Apr 13th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)