#109 San Diego State (23-12)

avg: 1428.77  •  sd: 50.37  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
156 Brigham Young-B Win 13-8 1739.84 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
86 Colorado-B Loss 11-12 1384.79 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
377 Denver-B** Win 13-2 864.69 Ignored Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
269 Grand Canyon-B Win 13-6 1407.39 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
86 Colorado-B Loss 8-13 1013.63 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2025
116 Denver Win 11-7 1851.03 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2025
249 Northern Arizona Win 13-8 1381.72 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2025
276 Chico State** Win 13-3 1384.1 Ignored Feb 8th Stanford Open Mens
157 Washington-B Win 8-7 1365.2 Feb 8th Stanford Open Mens
200 Cal Poly-Humboldt Win 9-5 1593.88 Feb 9th Stanford Open Mens
119 Cal Poly-SLO-B Loss 7-12 846.69 Feb 9th Stanford Open Mens
124 San Jose State Win 10-7 1748.6 Feb 9th Stanford Open Mens
186 Arizona Win 10-9 1245 Feb 15th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
216 Cal Poly-Pomona Win 12-11 1140.56 Feb 15th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
136 California-Irvine Win 10-8 1582.89 Feb 15th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
237 Loyola Marymount Win 12-9 1270.74 Feb 15th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
136 California-Irvine Win 9-7 1599.56 Feb 16th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
65 Grand Canyon Loss 7-8 1520.05 Feb 16th Vice Presidents Day Invite 2025
299 California-Santa Barbara-B** Win 13-3 1287.76 Ignored Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
211 UCLA-B Win 11-5 1625.29 Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
124 San Jose State Loss 8-9 1233.94 Mar 29th Southwest Showdown 2025
107 Claremont Loss 10-11 1319.82 Mar 30th Southwest Showdown 2025
124 San Jose State Loss 11-13 1130.1 Mar 30th Southwest Showdown 2025
84 Southern California Win 13-8 2015.51 Mar 30th Southwest Showdown 2025
6 Cal Poly-SLO** Loss 4-13 1667.97 Ignored Apr 12th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
327 Cal State-Long Beach** Win 12-5 1182.29 Ignored Apr 12th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
136 California-Irvine Win 12-8 1761.38 Apr 12th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
41 California-San Diego Loss 5-13 1192.31 Apr 12th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
136 California-Irvine Win 11-8 1685.83 Apr 13th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
84 Southern California Loss 9-14 1045.49 Apr 13th SoCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
120 Arizona State Loss 9-12 1020.56 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
119 Cal Poly-SLO-B Win 15-9 1882.69 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
65 Grand Canyon Loss 7-12 1124.54 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
211 UCLA-B Win 14-11 1338.63 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
124 San Jose State Win 15-10 1812.54 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)