#9 Vermont (19-11)

avg: 2247.89  •  sd: 65.38  •  top 16/20: 99.9%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
183 South Florida** Win 13-1 1786.53 Ignored Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
44 Virginia Tech Win 13-7 2371.94 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
20 Washington University Win 13-11 2315 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
11 Minnesota Loss 10-13 1911.4 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
6 Pittsburgh Loss 11-13 2103.98 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
23 Tufts Win 15-11 2405.22 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
12 Carleton College Win 13-9 2643.18 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 7-13 1928.8 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
10 Texas Win 15-11 2627.35 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
32 Utah State Win 13-9 2327.47 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
8 Brown Win 15-14 2401.39 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
1 Colorado Loss 13-15 2285.55 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
3 Georgia Loss 12-15 2156.41 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
37 Michigan Win 13-8 2381.91 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
11 Minnesota Win 13-9 2658.11 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 7-13 1928.8 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
35 Ohio State Win 13-11 2132.09 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
12 Carleton College Win 15-13 2438.8 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
3 Georgia Loss 11-15 2075.74 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 10-15 2032.73 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
8 Brown Win 15-12 2576.88 Apr 13th Greater New England D I Mens Conferences 2024
385 New Hampshire** Win 15-1 848.23 Ignored Apr 13th Greater New England D I Mens Conferences 2024
4 Massachusetts Loss 12-15 2153.61 Apr 14th Greater New England D I Mens Conferences 2024
141 Boston University** Win 13-4 1942.31 Ignored May 4th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2024
75 Dartmouth Win 13-9 2031.05 May 4th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2024
26 McGill Loss 12-13 1872.12 May 4th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2024
18 Northeastern Loss 11-13 1879.21 May 4th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2024
26 McGill Win 15-9 2512.6 May 5th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2024
18 Northeastern Win 15-13 2322.23 May 5th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2024
23 Tufts Win 14-10 2422.76 May 5th New England D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)