#32 Utah State (16-14)

avg: 1908.9  •  sd: 54.99  •  top 16/20: 0.2%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
5 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 10-11 2271.85 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
125 California-Irvine Win 15-9 1907.4 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
22 Washington Loss 10-13 1705.35 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2024
33 California-Santa Cruz Win 13-12 2032.18 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
67 Stanford Win 11-8 2037.17 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
24 UCLA Loss 6-11 1474 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invite 2024
21 British Columbia Win 11-9 2299.09 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
24 UCLA Loss 8-11 1655.09 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invite 2024
8 Brown Loss 14-15 2151.39 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
12 Carleton College Loss 12-13 2099.62 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
2 North Carolina Loss 9-13 2067.76 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
9 Vermont Loss 9-13 1829.32 Mar 2nd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
11 Minnesota Loss 11-15 1858.38 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
90 Tennessee Win 15-7 2143.84 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
24 UCLA Loss 13-15 1806.52 Mar 3rd Smoky Mountain Invite 2024
29 Utah Win 13-5 2547.07 Mar 29th Utah Valley Rally
180 Brigham Young-B** Win 13-0 1794.94 Ignored Mar 30th Utah Valley Rally
58 Utah Valley Win 13-11 1966.38 Mar 30th Utah Valley Rally
180 Brigham Young-B** Win 15-5 1794.94 Ignored Apr 13th Big Sky D I Mens Conferences 2024
321 Idaho** Win 15-2 1240.22 Ignored Apr 13th Big Sky D I Mens Conferences 2024
149 Montana State Win 15-7 1915.09 Apr 13th Big Sky D I Mens Conferences 2024
58 Utah Valley Loss 7-15 1137.54 Apr 13th Big Sky D I Mens Conferences 2024
149 Montana State Win 11-6 1861.78 Apr 14th Big Sky D I Mens Conferences 2024
29 Utah Loss 9-13 1528.5 Apr 14th Big Sky D I Mens Conferences 2024
160 Washington State** Win 15-6 1883.92 Ignored Apr 14th Big Sky D I Mens Conferences 2024
149 Montana State Win 13-8 1811.25 May 4th Northwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
7 Oregon Loss 7-13 1772.54 May 4th Northwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
58 Utah Valley Win 13-7 2295.07 May 4th Northwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
40 Victoria Loss 11-13 1628.64 May 4th Northwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
66 Western Washington Win 13-9 2092 May 5th Northwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)