#37 Michigan (20-11)

avg: 1885.75  •  sd: 60.82  •  top 16/20: 0.1%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
8 Brown Loss 9-13 1857.82 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
89 Florida State Win 13-10 1879.42 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
18 Northeastern Loss 9-13 1689.49 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
17 Brigham Young Loss 12-13 1995.63 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
54 Emory Loss 11-12 1630.32 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
38 Texas A&M Loss 10-14 1486.76 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2024
362 Concordia-Wisconsin** Win 13-2 1038.12 Ignored Mar 16th Grand Rapids College Invite
280 Western Michigan** Win 13-2 1428.64 Ignored Mar 16th Grand Rapids College Invite
357 Michigan State-B** Win 13-4 1074.64 Ignored Mar 16th Grand Rapids College Invite
110 Davenport Win 10-8 1730.23 Mar 17th Grand Rapids College Invite
151 Grace Win 12-10 1549.75 Mar 17th Grand Rapids College Invite
123 Oberlin Win 11-9 1645.92 Mar 17th Grand Rapids College Invite
2 North Carolina Loss 7-13 1928.8 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
35 Ohio State Win 13-11 2132.09 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
9 Vermont Loss 8-13 1751.73 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
11 Minnesota Loss 5-13 1639.55 Mar 30th Easterns 2024
13 Alabama-Huntsville Loss 10-13 1869.07 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
23 Tufts Win 15-14 2149.06 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
14 North Carolina State Loss 11-14 1858.14 Mar 31st Easterns 2024
223 Eastern Michigan Win 10-6 1536.14 Apr 13th Michigan D I Mens Conferences 2024
135 Grand Valley Win 11-4 1971.15 Apr 13th Michigan D I Mens Conferences 2024
280 Western Michigan** Win 13-5 1428.64 Ignored Apr 13th Michigan D I Mens Conferences 2024
135 Grand Valley Win 15-6 1971.15 Apr 14th Michigan D I Mens Conferences 2024
49 Michigan State Loss 9-12 1433.11 Apr 14th Michigan D I Mens Conferences 2024
49 Michigan State Win 14-10 2177.18 Apr 14th Michigan D I Mens Conferences 2024
222 Ball State** Win 15-2 1643.66 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
83 Indiana Win 15-7 2181.32 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
254 Michigan-B** Win 15-3 1528.81 Ignored Apr 27th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
39 Illinois Win 15-8 2450.18 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
106 Northwestern Win 15-11 1864.07 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
96 Notre Dame Win 15-7 2130.99 Apr 28th Great Lakes D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)