#221 LSU-B (2-10)

avg: 162.52  •  sd: 88.23  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
78 Georgia State** Loss 0-15 596.15 Jan 20th Starkville Qualifiers
147 Harding Loss 4-15 138.81 Jan 20th Starkville Qualifiers
154 Mississippi State -B Loss 0-15 87.91 Jan 20th Starkville Qualifiers
244 Southern Mississippi Win 11-4 321.09 Jan 21st Starkville Qualifiers
164 Mississippi State-C Loss 1-15 22.64 Jan 21st Starkville Qualifiers
209 Alabama-B Loss 2-15 -314.83 Jan 21st Starkville Qualifiers
139 Spring Hill** Loss 1-13 231.14 Ignored Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
52 Tennessee-Chattanooga** Loss 0-13 768.39 Ignored Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
104 Mississippi State** Loss 0-13 419.91 Ignored Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
75 Arizona State** Loss 4-10 608.42 Ignored Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
245 Tulane-B Win 12-6 267.51 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
135 Texas-San Antonio** Loss 4-13 241.47 Ignored Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)