#133 Arizona State (13-8)

avg: 1375.09  •  sd: 59.4  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
82 Mississippi State Win 10-9 1707.9 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
99 Tennessee-Chattanooga Loss 8-9 1393.93 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
203 Spring Hill Win 10-7 1502.95 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
370 LSU-B** Win 10-4 958.46 Ignored Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
286 Sam Houston Win 13-7 1347.01 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
43 Tulane Loss 8-11 1472.81 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
46 Florida Loss 7-12 1265.37 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
95 Arkansas Win 11-7 2001.48 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
219 Arizona Win 7-4 1548.64 Mar 30th 2024 Sinvite
334 California-Santa Barbara-B** Win 13-3 1181.39 Ignored Mar 30th 2024 Sinvite
235 Claremont Win 8-5 1448.81 Mar 30th 2024 Sinvite
221 California-B Win 13-4 1648.92 Mar 30th 2024 Sinvite
124 San Jose State Loss 6-11 845.64 Mar 31st 2024 Sinvite
255 Cal State-Long Beach Win 9-6 1341.35 Mar 31st 2024 Sinvite
219 Arizona Win 10-7 1442.15 Apr 14th Desert D I Mens Conferences 2024
247 Northern Arizona Win 12-10 1203.32 Apr 14th Desert D I Mens Conferences 2024
71 Grand Canyon Loss 7-12 1109.06 Apr 14th Desert D I Mens Conferences 2024
67 Stanford Loss 8-9 1546.57 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
144 Santa Clara Loss 6-7 1211.2 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
158 UCLA-B Loss 8-11 923.47 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
230 California-Davis Win 10-5 1589.28 Apr 28th Southwest D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)