#41 Southern California (14-18)

avg: 1573.6  •  sd: 56.2  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
143 California-B** Win 13-2 1334.19 Ignored Feb 1st Stanford Open Womens
178 Nevada-Reno** Win 8-0 1163.48 Ignored Feb 1st Stanford Open Womens
63 British Columbia-B Win 8-6 1631.53 Feb 2nd Stanford Open Womens
63 British Columbia-B Loss 5-6 1206.04 Feb 2nd Stanford Open Womens
46 Carleton College-Eclipse Loss 8-10 1282.37 Feb 2nd Stanford Open Womens
76 Portland Loss 4-10 623.97 Feb 2nd Stanford Open Womens
14 California-Santa Barbara Loss 6-13 1469.99 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
6 Oregon** Loss 2-13 1619.89 Ignored Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
23 California-Davis Loss 2-13 1281.12 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
14 California-Santa Barbara Loss 7-10 1680.33 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
15 California-Santa Cruz Loss 6-13 1443.77 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
54 Colorado State Win 10-9 1580.89 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
27 Texas Win 10-8 2033.33 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
1 British Columbia** Loss 4-15 1965.2 Ignored Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
10 California-San Diego Loss 5-12 1513.72 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
5 Vermont Loss 6-13 1686.29 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
54 Colorado State Win 9-8 1580.89 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025
18 Western Washington Loss 6-11 1419.93 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025
13 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 7-14 1496.99 Apr 12th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
220 Cal State-Long Beach** Win 14-1 822.63 Ignored Apr 12th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
14 California-Santa Barbara Loss 6-13 1469.99 Apr 12th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
30 UCLA Win 10-9 1843.34 Apr 12th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
83 California-Irvine Win 15-3 1794.75 Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
10 California-San Diego Loss 11-14 1800.38 Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
14 California-Santa Barbara Loss 7-13 1512.46 Apr 13th SoCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
114 Arizona State Win 15-11 1337.05 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
165 Cal Poly-SLO-B** Win 15-6 1236.05 Ignored Apr 26th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
78 Grand Canyon Win 15-10 1673.51 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
30 UCLA Loss 12-14 1497.38 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
40 California Win 12-9 1927.24 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
23 California-Davis Loss 4-15 1281.12 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
30 UCLA Win 15-12 2018.83 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)