#54 Colorado State (3-15)

avg: 1455.89  •  sd: 66.9  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
1 British Columbia** Loss 3-13 1965.2 Ignored Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
23 California-Davis Loss 3-13 1281.12 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
10 California-San Diego Loss 8-12 1672.56 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
4 Colorado Loss 9-12 1982.6 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
8 Stanford** Loss 2-13 1534.01 Ignored Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
19 Brigham Young Loss 5-13 1330.43 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
41 Southern California Loss 9-10 1448.6 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
13 Cal Poly-SLO** Loss 3-11 1479.87 Ignored Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
2 Carleton College** Loss 1-15 1963.52 Ignored Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
7 Washington** Loss 3-13 1589.3 Ignored Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
18 Western Washington Loss 3-13 1366.62 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025
41 Southern California Loss 8-9 1448.6 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025
4 Colorado Loss 7-15 1727.97 Apr 12th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2025
187 Colorado-B** Win 15-0 1097.88 Ignored Apr 12th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2025
107 Denver Win 11-5 1631.18 Apr 12th Rocky Mountain D I Womens Conferences 2025
45 Texas-Dallas Loss 6-11 1014.95 Apr 26th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2025
111 Kansas Win 15-6 1601.06 Apr 26th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2025
27 Texas Loss 6-13 1170.67 Apr 27th South Central D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)