#15 California-Santa Cruz (18-12)

avg: 2043.77  •  sd: 45.98  •  top 16/20: 99.8%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
23 California-Davis Win 10-9 2006.12 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
7 Washington Loss 11-13 1960.46 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
6 Oregon Loss 11-13 1991.04 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
8 Stanford Loss 7-8 2009.01 Jan 26th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
30 UCLA Win 9-8 1843.34 Jan 26th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
10 California-San Diego Win 11-9 2362.92 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
18 Western Washington Win 12-7 2487.13 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2025
23 California-Davis Win 11-9 2130.33 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
14 California-Santa Barbara Win 8-3 2669.99 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
41 Southern California Win 13-6 2173.6 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2025
1 British Columbia Loss 8-13 2069.04 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
12 Utah Win 11-10 2218.58 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
4 Colorado Loss 12-13 2202.97 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2025
23 California-Davis Loss 11-12 1756.12 Mar 1st Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
68 Santa Clara Win 13-7 1857.6 Mar 1st Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
26 Northeastern Win 10-9 1924.41 Mar 1st Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
35 Wisconsin Win 13-6 2233.39 Mar 1st Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
10 California-San Diego Loss 9-10 1988.72 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
3 Tufts Loss 9-12 2141.58 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
26 Northeastern Win 10-6 2295.57 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
40 California Win 13-7 2139.41 Apr 12th NorCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
68 Santa Clara** Win 14-5 1900.07 Ignored Apr 12th NorCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
8 Stanford Loss 11-15 1752.85 Apr 13th NorCal D I Womens Conferences 2025
114 Arizona State** Win 15-3 1555.88 Ignored Apr 26th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
13 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 10-13 1751.73 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
23 California-Davis Win 14-10 2279.83 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
30 UCLA Win 15-9 2233.82 Apr 26th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
23 California-Davis Win 9-8 2006.12 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
10 California-San Diego Loss 12-14 1892.76 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
10 California-San Diego Loss 7-15 1513.72 Apr 27th Southwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)