#53 William & Mary (24-13)

avg: 1710.3  •  sd: 52.07  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
221 Christopher Newport Win 13-7 1552.85 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
282 Navy** Win 13-0 1363.93 Ignored Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
167 Pennsylvania Win 13-3 1809.59 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
111 Vermont-B Win 13-7 1975.85 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
88 Carnegie Mellon Win 15-9 2022.05 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
59 James Madison Win 14-9 2143.6 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
78 Richmond Win 13-8 2078.62 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
49 Chicago Loss 12-13 1623.65 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
19 Tufts Loss 12-13 1905.53 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
55 Maryland Loss 12-13 1570.07 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
61 Michigan State Win 9-8 1783.64 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
69 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 10-7 2008.64 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
106 Appalachian State Win 12-7 1970 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
70 Dartmouth Win 13-8 2114.66 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
56 Indiana Loss 8-10 1416.24 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
62 North Carolina State Win 11-8 2016.94 Feb 22nd Easterns Qualifier 2025
48 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 9-13 1333.38 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
35 South Carolina Win 15-12 2134.7 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
28 Virginia Loss 9-12 1536.71 Feb 23rd Easterns Qualifier 2025
80 Case Western Reserve Loss 10-11 1437.39 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
123 Connecticut Win 11-6 1907.13 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
64 Georgetown Win 10-9 1770.71 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
92 Yale Win 11-10 1615.22 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
88 Carnegie Mellon Loss 8-11 1140.96 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
51 Cornell Loss 11-14 1410.56 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
140 George Mason Win 13-12 1429.92 Apr 12th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
112 Liberty Win 12-11 1530.59 Apr 12th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
368 Radford** Win 15-4 943.76 Ignored Apr 12th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
28 Virginia Loss 8-12 1440.93 Apr 12th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
140 George Mason Win 13-9 1723.49 Apr 13th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
59 James Madison Win 14-11 1983.07 Apr 13th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
45 Virginia Tech Loss 11-13 1546.76 Apr 13th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
63 Duke Loss 9-15 1133.3 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
172 East Carolina Win 14-7 1767.28 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
28 Virginia Win 13-10 2210.22 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
55 Maryland Loss 10-11 1570.07 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
35 South Carolina Win 13-11 2063.05 Apr 27th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)