#277 Jacksonville State (6-19)

avg: 842.53  •  sd: 56.98  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
303 Alabama-B Win 11-10 836.11 Feb 3rd Black Warrior Classic
195 Alabama-Birmingham Win 11-10 1267.26 Feb 3rd Black Warrior Classic
242 Mississippi State -B Win 10-8 1248.73 Feb 3rd Black Warrior Classic
403 Southern Mississippi** Win 11-4 636.96 Ignored Feb 3rd Black Warrior Classic
195 Alabama-Birmingham Loss 6-11 595.56 Feb 4th Black Warrior Classic
132 Alabama-C Loss 9-11 1127.51 Feb 4th Black Warrior Classic
242 Mississippi State -B Win 9-7 1265.4 Feb 4th Black Warrior Classic
47 Alabama** Loss 2-15 1184.81 Ignored Feb 10th Golden Triangle Invitational
242 Mississippi State -B Loss 9-11 736.85 Feb 10th Golden Triangle Invitational
82 Mississippi State** Loss 3-11 982.9 Ignored Feb 10th Golden Triangle Invitational
99 Tennessee-Chattanooga** Loss 3-11 918.93 Ignored Feb 10th Golden Triangle Invitational
172 Union (Tennessee) Loss 7-13 676.15 Feb 10th Golden Triangle Invitational
116 LSU Loss 8-13 934.93 Feb 11th Golden Triangle Invitational
303 Alabama-B Loss 5-11 111.11 Mar 23rd Magic City Invite 2024
88 Berry** Loss 3-13 951.68 Ignored Mar 23rd Magic City Invite 2024
358 Samford Win 12-8 906.24 Mar 23rd Magic City Invite 2024
242 Mississippi State -B Loss 5-13 386.06 Mar 23rd Magic City Invite 2024
303 Alabama-B Loss 11-12 586.11 Mar 24th Magic City Invite 2024
195 Alabama-Birmingham Loss 11-13 913.42 Mar 24th Magic City Invite 2024
195 Alabama-Birmingham Loss 7-10 752.59 Apr 13th Gulf Coast D I Mens Conferences 2024
48 Auburn** Loss 4-13 1182.29 Ignored Apr 13th Gulf Coast D I Mens Conferences 2024
43 Tulane Loss 6-13 1238.42 Apr 13th Gulf Coast D I Mens Conferences 2024
82 Mississippi State Loss 6-13 982.9 Apr 13th Gulf Coast D I Mens Conferences 2024
111 Vanderbilt Loss 6-13 857.16 Apr 14th Gulf Coast D I Mens Conferences 2024
116 LSU Loss 4-13 831.09 Apr 14th Gulf Coast D I Mens Conferences 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)