#89 Florida State (15-19)

avg: 1551.28  •  sd: 48.5  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
37 Michigan Loss 10-13 1557.6 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
44 Virginia Tech Win 12-11 1939.41 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
36 Wisconsin Loss 11-12 1768.9 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2024
28 Georgia Tech Loss 2-13 1388.02 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
4 Massachusetts Loss 7-13 1896.57 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
183 South Florida Win 15-7 1786.53 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2024
95 Arkansas Loss 8-9 1409.59 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
43 Tulane Loss 7-8 1713.42 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
167 Texas-San Antonio Win 10-8 1523.78 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
83 Indiana Loss 11-13 1352.48 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
116 LSU Loss 5-11 831.09 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
203 Spring Hill Win 7-4 1609.44 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
195 Alabama-Birmingham Win 12-7 1662.77 Mar 16th Tally Classic XVIII
48 Auburn Loss 7-12 1261.78 Mar 16th Tally Classic XVIII
146 Clemson Win 11-7 1785.25 Mar 16th Tally Classic XVIII
372 North Florida** Win 13-2 955.74 Ignored Mar 16th Tally Classic XVIII
73 Ave Maria Loss 11-12 1489.71 Mar 17th Tally Classic XVIII
82 Mississippi State Loss 8-10 1320.24 Mar 17th Tally Classic XVIII
82 Mississippi State Win 15-6 2182.9 Mar 17th Tally Classic XVIII
50 Duke Loss 12-15 1472.02 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
59 William & Mary Loss 6-15 1127.3 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
65 Richmond Loss 11-13 1446.15 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
166 RIT Win 15-14 1392.82 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2024
76 Massachusetts -B Loss 13-15 1396.32 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
99 Tennessee-Chattanooga Win 11-7 1985.83 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2024
69 Central Florida Loss 12-14 1417.58 Apr 13th Florida D I Mens Conferences 2024
309 Florida Gulf Coast** Win 15-6 1281.37 Ignored Apr 13th Florida D I Mens Conferences 2024
186 Miami (Florida) Win 12-8 1617.52 Apr 13th Florida D I Mens Conferences 2024
46 Florida Loss 11-15 1404.71 Apr 14th Florida D I Mens Conferences 2024
183 South Florida Win 13-10 1514.67 Apr 14th Florida D I Mens Conferences 2024
54 Emory Loss 10-13 1427.18 Apr 27th Southeast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
28 Georgia Tech Loss 8-13 1491.86 Apr 27th Southeast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
99 Tennessee-Chattanooga Win 13-12 1643.93 Apr 27th Southeast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
90 Tennessee Win 13-9 1962.41 Apr 27th Southeast D I College Mens Regionals 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)