#249 Northern Arizona (5-9)

avg: 885.56  •  sd: 61.03  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
186 Arizona Loss 12-14 899.04 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
316 Arizona State-B Win 17-2 1218.09 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
116 Denver Loss 5-17 784.14 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
377 Denver-B** Win 13-2 864.69 Ignored Jan 26th New Year Fest 2025
109 San Diego State Loss 8-13 932.61 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2025
186 Arizona Loss 9-13 701.43 Mar 29th Sinvite 2025
156 Brigham Young-B Loss 3-13 643.68 Mar 29th Sinvite 2025
350 California-San Diego-B Win 13-7 993.81 Mar 29th Sinvite 2025
376 San Diego State-B Win 7-4 762.67 Mar 29th Sinvite 2025
285 Southern California-B Loss 9-10 628.46 Mar 30th Sinvite 2025
285 Southern California-B Loss 9-10 628.46 Mar 30th Sinvite 2025
186 Arizona Win 10-8 1382.67 Apr 13th Desert D I Mens Conferences 2025
120 Arizona State Loss 7-15 765.92 Apr 13th Desert D I Mens Conferences 2025
65 Grand Canyon Loss 10-15 1191.45 Apr 13th Desert D I Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)